Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Hurricane Isaac, Part 3 - Analysis and Forecasting Thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 924
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The Euro actually appears to deepen it after making landfall. While that solution seems a little suspicious, perhaps it is a reflection of the improving environment around the storm. Also, despite a potentially prolonged period of land interaction, isn't most of the area near the coast swampy/low terrain? That could cause slower weakening compared to having part of the core over more inhospitable terrain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro actually appears to deepen it after making landfall. While that solution seems a little suspicious, perhaps it is a reflection of the improving environment around the storm. Also, despite a potentially prolonged period of land interaction, isn't most of the area near the coast swampy/low terrain? That could cause slower weakening compared to having part of the core over more inhospitable terrain.

It's not really what most would consider a "solid land mass". Check out this landsat image of LA, a lot of the terrain south of New Orleans is extremely low lying, swampy land like you said. I guess there will still be friction in play with the land that there is but in those southern most areas if you take a 5 square mile chunk maybe 2 or 3 of it will be actual land by area?

http://gis.deq.state.la.us/map_inventory_files/data_files/map_numbers/2003/jpegs/200301007.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

some disparity in how we are defining the "eye":

if there's just one large spiral band vs. a defined circle

if it's large (80 nm) that has already contacted land vs. if there's a smaller inner circle

there does appear to be a smaller inner circle that i've marked in red.

if you loop the radar, you'll see all echoes circling around it (from 4:34 CDT):

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA2 3309A ISAAC HDOB 15 20120828

215430 2905N 08916W 6952 03014 9797 +150 +122 070036 036 /// /// 03

215500 2903N 08916W 6951 03011 9798 +146 +124 071033 034 /// /// 03

215530 2901N 08915W 6951 03008 9795 +147 +120 066029 031 /// /// 03

215600 2859N 08914W 6952 03003 9793 +145 +122 063026 026 /// /// 03

215630 2857N 08914W 6953 03000 9789 +145 +127 058025 026 /// /// 03

215700 2855N 08912W 6952 02994 9783 +148 +114 058026 026 /// /// 03

215730 2853N 08911W 6951 02993 9778 +148 +116 059025 025 /// /// 03

215800 2852N 08910W 6953 02988 9774 +147 +133 052025 026 /// /// 03

215830 2850N 08909W 6950 02988 9764 +149 +145 047019 020 /// /// 03

215900 2848N 08907W 6953 02981 9756 +154 +138 038013 016 /// /// 03

215930 2847N 08905W 6954 02978 9753 +153 +137 034008 010 /// /// 03

220000 2846N 08903W 6954 02974 9751 +151 +143 147004 006 021 002 00

220030 2846N 08901W 6953 02975 9745 +158 +143 189019 024 012 002 03

220100 2847N 08900W 6953 02980 9738 +168 +134 163029 030 023 001 00

220130 2849N 08858W 6950 02985 9739 +171 +129 154035 035 030 002 00

220200 2850N 08856W 6951 02986 9745 +171 +110 147040 041 036 001 00

220230 2852N 08855W 6952 02985 9750 +167 +122 150041 042 036 001 00

220300 2853N 08853W 6951 02989 9761 +157 +128 150039 040 037 001 00

220330 2855N 08851W 6952 02989 9762 +157 +132 151042 043 038 001 00

220400 2857N 08850W 6952 02992 9766 +156 +124 151044 045 038 000 00

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very impressive structure has developed over the past hour. The smaller eye is about to make landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi, but I don't know if that will have any sort of negative effect since that's just marsh. Also of note, cloud to ground lightning strike just now near the NE eye wall.

It's not even a marsh at this point, simply water and relatively small areas boxed off by levees. 7.5 ft of surge at Shell Beach.

Surge in New Orleans rising again, up to 2.5 ft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA2 3309A ISAAC HDOB 15 20120828

215430 2905N 08916W 6952 03014 9797 +150 +122 070036 036 /// /// 03

215500 2903N 08916W 6951 03011 9798 +146 +124 071033 034 /// /// 03

215530 2901N 08915W 6951 03008 9795 +147 +120 066029 031 /// /// 03

215600 2859N 08914W 6952 03003 9793 +145 +122 063026 026 /// /// 03

215630 2857N 08914W 6953 03000 9789 +145 +127 058025 026 /// /// 03

215700 2855N 08912W 6952 02994 9783 +148 +114 058026 026 /// /// 03

215730 2853N 08911W 6951 02993 9778 +148 +116 059025 025 /// /// 03

215800 2852N 08910W 6953 02988 9774 +147 +133 052025 026 /// /// 03

215830 2850N 08909W 6950 02988 9764 +149 +145 047019 020 /// /// 03

215900 2848N 08907W 6953 02981 9756 +154 +138 038013 016 /// /// 03

215930 2847N 08905W 6954 02978 9753 +153 +137 034008 010 /// /// 03

220000 2846N 08903W 6954 02974 9751 +151 +143 147004 006 021 002 00

220030 2846N 08901W 6953 02975 9745 +158 +143 189019 024 012 002 03

220100 2847N 08900W 6953 02980 9738 +168 +134 163029 030 023 001 00

220130 2849N 08858W 6950 02985 9739 +171 +129 154035 035 030 002 00

220200 2850N 08856W 6951 02986 9745 +171 +110 147040 041 036 001 00

220230 2852N 08855W 6952 02985 9750 +167 +122 150041 042 036 001 00

220300 2853N 08853W 6951 02989 9761 +157 +128 150039 040 037 001 00

220330 2855N 08851W 6952 02989 9762 +157 +132 151042 043 038 001 00

220400 2857N 08850W 6952 02992 9766 +156 +124 151044 045 038 000 00

973.8 extrapolated

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA2 3309A ISAAC HDOB 15 20120828

215430 2905N 08916W 6952 03014 9797 +150 +122 070036 036 /// /// 03

215500 2903N 08916W 6951 03011 9798 +146 +124 071033 034 /// /// 03

215530 2901N 08915W 6951 03008 9795 +147 +120 066029 031 /// /// 03

215600 2859N 08914W 6952 03003 9793 +145 +122 063026 026 /// /// 03

215630 2857N 08914W 6953 03000 9789 +145 +127 058025 026 /// /// 03

215700 2855N 08912W 6952 02994 9783 +148 +114 058026 026 /// /// 03

215730 2853N 08911W 6951 02993 9778 +148 +116 059025 025 /// /// 03

215800 2852N 08910W 6953 02988 9774 +147 +133 052025 026 /// /// 03

215830 2850N 08909W 6950 02988 9764 +149 +145 047019 020 /// /// 03

215900 2848N 08907W 6953 02981 9756 +154 +138 038013 016 /// /// 03

215930 2847N 08905W 6954 02978 9753 +153 +137 034008 010 /// /// 03

220000 2846N 08903W 6954 02974 9751 +151 +143 147004 006 021 002 00

220030 2846N 08901W 6953 02975 9745 +158 +143 189019 024 012 002 03

220100 2847N 08900W 6953 02980 9738 +168 +134 163029 030 023 001 00

220130 2849N 08858W 6950 02985 9739 +171 +129 154035 035 030 002 00

220200 2850N 08856W 6951 02986 9745 +171 +110 147040 041 036 001 00

220230 2852N 08855W 6952 02985 9750 +167 +122 150041 042 036 001 00

220300 2853N 08853W 6951 02989 9761 +157 +128 150039 040 037 001 00

220330 2855N 08851W 6952 02989 9762 +157 +132 151042 043 038 001 00

220400 2857N 08850W 6952 02992 9766 +156 +124 151044 045 038 000 00

someone map these coordinates and compare to the inner small eye we're discussing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting to watch the radar out of Mobile right now... look at the outer rain band currently affecting the northwest Florida coast. You can see waves propagating through the rain band!

Yeah, I was right underneath that band a few minutes ago here just to the east of Pensacola in Santa Rosa County. tornado warning for most of the county. Rough winds for a few but the power held up ok.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

500 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

AT 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS

ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 28.7

NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH

OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF

NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT BOOTHEVILLE

LOUISIANA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS

OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS.

A STORM SURGE OF 7.1 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL

OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE

OF 4.8 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN

WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.7N 89.2W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...