CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Well it's getting more time to stay over the water if that happens, so that would be interesting. Models do slow it down a bit. Still looks like maybe a NW jog on radar..perhaps it slows right along the coastline there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Awesome looking meso-low in the center of the eye. NOAA P-3 flight is going to have fun with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 HRRR has Isaac just stewing off of the coast for 15 hours and strengthening the eyewall until it completely emerges from the convection I'm not sure Isaac is going to stay offshore... the recent radar trends are not agree with the forecast of HRRR anymore, as it has a much smaller eyewall diameter than what is actually being observed. It seems that its initial conditions its using initialize the cyclone with a much smaller eyewall than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Despite the plain IR imagery looking more organized, it's still not that great looking on any enhanced IR imagery showing colder cloud tops. Unless this goes southwest...not sure how it really strengthens much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Awesome looking meso-low in the center of the eye. NOAA P-3 flight is going to have fun with that. Not sure I'd qualify that as a meso low.....it looks more like a remnant part of the initial band as it was spiraling in on itself. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Seeing a good deal of 95-110 mph winds at 11kft to 13kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Despite the plain IR imagery looking more organized, it's still not that great looking on any enhanced IR imagery showing colder cloud tops. Unless this goes southwest...not sure how it really strengthens much. I would doubt it strengthens much if at all despite any positives at this point. Land interaction even if minimal and it sitting in one spot don't seem to be terribly favorable. It's only going to take a small north wobble for landfall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would doubt it strengthens much if at all despite any positives at this point. Land interaction even if minimal and it sitting in one spot don't seem to be terribly favorable. It's only going to take a small north wobble for landfall as well. Yeah pretty much agree here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 In my honest opinion, the actual eyewall is still developing and is well offshore, not the larger outer band that is currently moving through SE LA, but instead a much smaller area of convection that is located on the SE edge of the New Orleans radar. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Did not see this map posted and thought you guys/gals might find it useful. http://google.org/crisismap/2012-tropical-system-isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 In my honest opinion, the actual eyewall is still developing and is well offshore, not the larger outer band that is currently moving through SE LA, but instead a much smaller area of convection that is located on the SE edge of the New Orleans radar. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Looks to me like it failed to tighten a smallish eyewall for about the 4th time today and is back to having a giant "eye" of moderate winds surrounded by strong bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Isaac has strengthened to 80 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would doubt it strengthens much if at all despite any positives at this point. Land interaction even if minimal and it sitting in one spot don't seem to be terribly favorable. It's only going to take a small north wobble for landfall as well. Also, Isaac has a lot of "junk" in the COC...that just robs any EW development/intensification of energy and essentially turns the damper down on the chimney (ie inhibits center core subsidence) That would take awhile to get rid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Awesome looking meso-low in the center of the eye. NOAA P-3 flight is going to have fun with that. Maybe it will form an inner eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 4:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 Location: 28.7°N 89.2°W Moving: NW at 8 mph Min pressure: 975 mb Max sustained: 80 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Also, Isaac has a lot of "junk" in the COC...that just robs any EW development/intensification of energy and essentially turns the damper down on the chimney (ie inhibits center core subsidence) That would take awhile to get rid of. from the disco: Although not explicitly forecast due to land interaction at 12 hours...favorable water temperatures along with an impressive upper-level outflow regime suggest that Isaac could strengthen a little more before landfall occurs. However...because of the unusually large wind field...rapid intensification is not expected. Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.disc.html#bp6B2PW8cVOJtg8X.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 85nm wide eye Don't see that every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Disco really should have at least mentioned the possibility of a stall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The radar presentation to the East of the COC is beginning to once again improve. Perhaps this time will be the "charm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Apache Corp rig now 79mph, gusting to 98mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Surge has risen 0.8 ft at Shell Beach in the last hour, now up to 6.8 ft with water levels of 7.8 ft. It's scary to think about where we'll be this time tomorrow after another full day of water being funneled towards New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 100 mph wind gust at KMIS Radar velocities back this up as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I think we're going to see this last minute ramp up the ECMWF has been advertising for days. Form now till landfall tomorrow. The frictional land effects and improved structure is going to finally allow it. Should be fun to watch from a meteorological perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The radar presentation to the East of the COC is beginning to once again improve. Perhaps this time will be the "charm". Starting to see a few hints of yellow in the "inner eyewall" on radar. Gonna be very curious to see if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Starting to see a few hints of yellow in the "inner eyewall" on radar. Gonna be very curious to see if that trend continues. Yeah my guess is to what's happening is that, now that the circulation has largely kicked the dry air and sealed itself off, it's forming an inner eyewall and that there are several spiral bands of convection forming around it. This will be a fascinating process to document to see if Isaac succeeds or fails at meaningful intensity gains if it can establish a more compact eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennethb Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Can someone explain/depict the weakness in the subtropical ridge at 30 deg lat that the NHC mentioned in the 4:00 pm discussion: ....Issac is expected to continue northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge that is oriented east-west along 30n latitude. Because of this weakness... the steering flow is forecast to decrease over the next 36-48 hours...which will result in Isaac slowing down some more...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Becoming a bit more vigorous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Apache Corp rig now 79mph, gusting to 98mph. 100 mph wind gust at KMIS Radar velocities back this up as well In their 'Remarks', they say the wind readings are unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Isn't it almost about to make landfall the eye is already a tiny bit over land. Im I seeimg something wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Surge has risen 0.8 ft at Shell Beach in the last hour, now up to 6.8 ft with water levels of 7.8 ft. It's scary to think about where we'll be this time tomorrow after another full day of water being funneled towards New Orleans. FWIW The Gustav surge at Shell Beach was 9.5 ft; looks like this will be easily beaten. Surge suddenly started dropping at the station on Lake Ponchartrain, though - not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.