BuffaloWeather Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Just noticed a wind report from the GOMEX with a gust to 83mph. That is the one I mentioned in the above post. Thanks for posting the proof though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Isaac is almost out of time. According to the Euro it has another 30+ hours to intensify, which is longer than previously thought, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 According to the Euro it has another 30+ hours to intensify, which is longer than previously thought, correct? Keep in mind that even if the center of Isaac remains off shore, much of the northern semicircle will be over land and encountering friction. That will make transporting winds down to the surface even more difficult, if that is even possible at this point. Keep in mind that's not official, but my personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Not too often you get this many nice sfc obs of a TC over water. Thanks oil platforms! Max sustained winds 70 mph on west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Does anyone think its possible this thing doesn't make landfall this evening and the models are correct? Seems far-fetched it can hang out that long It's close already but with the eyewall starting to contract...it looks to be slowly creeping almost west for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ Awesome live web cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Keep in mind that even if the center of Isaac remains off shore, much of the northern semicircle will be over land and encountering friction. That will make transporting winds down to the surface even more difficult, if that is even possible at this point. Keep in mind that's not official, but my personal opinion. Actually, frictional convergence should tighten the core and allow for a better wind/pressure relationship with time. We are seeing this tightening on radar and satellite already. Time to (mostly) forget the past...we are entering a new ballgame for Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Actually, frictional convergence should tighten the core and allow for a better wind/pressure relationship with time. We are seeing this tightening on radar and satellite already. Time to (mostly) forget the past...we are entering a new ballgame for Isaac. I do remember reading that from the experts over the past few days and from Stewart yesterday afternoon, I'm just hesitant to believe it until we get another aircraft into the system to confirm. I do believe winds should begin to consolidate towards the center, but will that help increase surface winds now that Isaac is so close to the coast? Time will tell but as you said, it is important to maintain situational awareness with Isaac and not become complacent. Thanks for the reminder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Decent winds even far inland, Baton Rouge Gusting to 36. Boothville had 66 mph gust last hour. NO. Lakefront is almost sustained TS force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Also lower LA marshland, comparable to a storm moving over the Everglades maybe? Not much friction to slow the speeds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 HRRR doesn't actually make landfall lol. Just rides along the LA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The improvement in radar presentation over the past 12 hours has been steady. There now appears to be a much smaller eyewall building as seen on New Orleans radar. You can see a tight little swirl of developing thunderstorms. This could be the beginning of steady strengthening. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=lix&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 HRRR doesn't actually make landfall lol. Just rides along the LA coast Supports the Euro at least through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 As the Eye is moving slightly north of due west looks like serious convection blowing up on eastern eyewall in visible imagery....Is this frictional convergence or just evolution of the inner core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 RT @HRD_AOML_NOAA: #NOAA42 just took off. We are headed to fly into #Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Gust of 91 mph now being reported at the Apache Corp site northeast of the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Is anyone getting data from recon mission 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Buras, LA: Sustained 50mph, gusts to 70mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Pretty respectable looking circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Keep in mind that we've already broken a record for having the lowest pre-hurricane tropical storm pressure in history, so trying to correlate the pressure verses the wind field has proven futile. Considering the pressure is at 975 millibars with 75 MPH winds, it seems reasonable that we won't be seeing sustained winds over 90 MPH and even that is pushing it. However, if the "rubber band effect" of the low pressure and low wind field breaks and we get an inner core that can develop, winds may react a bit more. Isaac is almost out of time. Good point. Isn't sub-960 normally a Cat 3 pressure? This thing's circulation is so big, maybe that's holding back the intensification, and it's getting kind of late for the skater to pull his arms in so the spin can accelerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RGweathergeek Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Decent winds even far inland, Baton Rouge Gusting to 36. Boothville had 66 mph gust last hour. NO. Lakefront is almost sustained TS force. Similar obs to what I mentioned on the obs thread. Lake Charles is gusting to 38 mph and Lafayette is gusting to 33 mph, both WELL away from the center of Isaac. Beaumont, TX is reporting gusts to 28 mph at this hour. The wind field is huge, which would help explain one of the reasons it took so long for Isaac to get together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Is anyone getting data from recon mission 32? I use the Google Earth KML (which is a bit slower, it seems, than other means) and Mission 32 was "stuck" for a long time. They were flying home anyway, but it updated just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 HRRR has Isaac just stewing off of the coast for 15 hours and strengthening the eyewall until it completely emerges from the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Surge is rising FAST at Shell Beach, Louisiana, east of New Orleans. 6 ft of surge now, water level at 7.2 ft when you include tide. http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/data_read.shtml?station_info=8761305+Shell+Beach,+LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 NHC is usually VERY reluctant to forecast stalls or small loops, even with signfiicant model support. Will be interesting to see what they do in the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The HRRR, the NAM, the NMM, and the ARW, and to some degree the Euro has a southwest jog tonight. Is this fact or fiction? It's a pretty big red flag that every mesoscale model we have is forecasting this motion tonight. Should be exciting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like it is pretty stationary right now to me. As the eyewall continues to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The HRRR, the NAM, the NMM, and the ARW, and to some degree the Euro has a southwest jog tonight. Is this fact or fiction? It's a pretty big red flag that every mesoscale model we have is forecasting this motion tonight. Should be exciting to watch unfold. Well it's getting more time to stay over the water if that happens, so that would be interesting. Models do slow it down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Reposting this link....freakin awesome! http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120828&endtime=1803&nframes=200&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=null&aniheight=null Takes a bit to load, but zoom in as much as you want.....you'll actuall see the llv circ. moving in a cyclonic motion (moves nne then n then nw then w and disappears behind the CDO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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