CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 ADT is computer automated and totally objective. And why would anyone bother with satellite estimates when there has been full time recon coverage for the last 3 days? Weenie Dvorak Technique has it as 5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Rick Knabb is not going to announce on TWC that they are upgrading to a hurricane. The NWS has very strict policies on that kind of information being disseminated via products. USAF plane about to penetrate eye has extrap SLP of 968.4 mb with 32 knot north winds. Will be interesting to see what the drop shows. That was a bad ob, obviously. They just penetrated with extrap around 976 mb which makes a lot more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It looks like this will really be remembered for the very heavy rains like Debby and the earlier non named very moist system that lifted north to the Gulf Coast from the Yucatan. Couldn't the slow movement and large size of this 'cane also result in a very prolonged east or southeast wind piling up tons of water into Lake Borgne and then into Lake Pontchartrain? Isn't that similar to what happened in Katrina more than the rains? So could the 20 inches of rain plus the water piled in from the wind create conditions in Ponchartrain similar to Katrina? I know the levees are better, so it probably would not result in the same catastrophe, but still, there seems to be some potential here for something much worse than your average CAT 1 'cane. I agree with NHC not upgrading it to a hurricane if they did not find hurricane strength winds--otherwise, why even have the criteria. But I still think it is inevitable that this will become a hurricane, probably by 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 ADT is computer automated and totally objective. And why would anyone bother with satellite estimates when there has been full time recon coverage for the last 3 days? The discussion is on reconciling sat presentation and storm pressure verdus actual results. Why should we even bother looking at satellite pics ir radar, then. Let's just put up a map of the plane and post dropsonde data. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The discussion is on reconciling sat presentation and storm pressure verdus actual results. Why should we even bother looking at satellite pics ir radar, then. Let's just put up a map of the plane and post dropsonde data. Sent from my Milestone X 2 There is no "reconciling." When recon is in the storm and differs from Dvorak, Dvorak is wrong, recon is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The discussion is on reconciling sat presentation and storm pressure verdus actual results. Why should we even bother looking at satellite pics ir radar, then. Let's just put up a map of the plane and post dropsonde data. If all you're trying to do assess current intensity and there is full recon coverage, that is literally all you need. That's all NHC looks at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 From the WV you can see the drier air continuing to get sucked into the circulation, Honestly doubt it drops more the 4-5 mb prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I think the human touch works better than ADT until the storm has a well developed eye and it can compare/contrast warm pixels in the eye with cold pixels in the eyewall. Even human Dvorak has, IIRC, often been found to be a complete Cat off from actually recon measured strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbbballkid37 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There is no "reconciling." When recon is in the storm and differs from Dvorak, Dvorak is wrong, recon is right. I think the point needs to be made that while recon is all you currently need to assess current intensity, IT IS important to observe the satellite/radar data and try to make sense of it....this helps set precedence for future storms, and if enough evidence is presented over the years, perhaps our ESTIMATION technique can be updated the more we learn. Yes, recon is all you need right now for this next warning, but look at the bigger picture as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I think the human touch works better than ADT until the storm has a well developed eye and it can compare/contrast warm pixels in the eye with cold pixels in the eyewall. Even human Dvorak has, IIRC, often been found to be a complete Cat off from actually recon measured strength... I think the point needs to be made that while recon is all you currently need to assess current intensity, IT IS important to observe the satellite/radar data and try to make sense of it....this helps set precedence for future storms, and if enough evidence is presented over the years, perhaps our ESTIMATION technique can be updated the more we learn. Yes, recon is all you need right now for this next warning, but look at the bigger picture as well. Yep, and that's the point of SATCON. It correlates IR AND microwave imagery to aircraft recon to get a better estimate of the actual wind speed. It is the best satellite estimate out there currently, but unfortunately is limited by the availability of AMSU passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 115730 2710N 08726W 8411 01436 //// +170 //// 215080 086 062 009 01 The sfmr reading is still below hurricane intensity, but the flight level wind is fairly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 One difference this time might be that we are seeing some semblance of an inner core try to form, and it doesn't looks like the dry air is penetrating that. We will see.... From the WV you can see the drier air continuing to get sucked into the circulation, Honestly doubt it drops more the 4-5 mb prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Multiple clean 60-63 kt SFMR datapoints with a FL wind of 80 kt and peak 10s FL wind of 86 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Multiple clean 60-63 kt SFMR datapoints with a FL wind of 80 kt and peak 10s FL wind of 86 knots. We can probably say, welcome hurricane Isaac. Microwave presentation is still not amazing, but thats a decent building eyewall. Since this shot, radar shows its trying to close off with reflectivity now on the north side of the eye-wall feature... The 9z HRRR now shows a mainly west track today, with the center still offshore at 00z with a very impressive satellite signature. Quite a large shift left in the track in the past 4-5 run cycles, giving credit to the ECMWF and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KVOA 62 knot gust last hour at this oil platform which seems pretty far from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://www.ndbc.noaa...hp?station=KVOA 62 knot gust last hour at this oil platform which seems pretty far from the center. Those are located pretty high ASL. Agree with Phil...looks like hurricane Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like some modestly robust convection is trying to fill the void on the NNW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Nice pic of the low scuds coming into NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I can't believe this thing is still heading due west... What are the chances it misses NO at this point? This really isn't the thread for this kind of post...much better in the banter thread. However I do think it's important to point out that the strongest winds are well displaced from the center so exactly where it ends up tracking probably won't impact the conditions you feel in NO very much. Kermit just found an 88 knot FL wind over 80 miles east of the center to illustrate the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Give it another hour and this could finally get really going. Center might just about to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:54Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 09 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 30 Observation Number: 20 Part B: Data For Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels... Level Air Temperature Dew Point 988mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 850mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 764mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) 16.0°C (60.8°F) 752mb 14.8°C (58.6°F) 14.8°C (58.6°F) Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 988mb (Surface) 195° (from the SSW) 70 knots (81 mph) 983mb 190° (from the S) 67 knots (77 mph) 970mb 185° (from the S) 77 knots (89 mph) 939mb 190° (from the S) 81 knots (93 mph) 909mb 195° (from the SSW) 74 knots (85 mph) 896mb 200° (from the SSW) 67 knots (77 mph) 850mb 210° (from the SSW) 64 knots (74 mph) 752mb 220° (from the SW) 54 knots (62 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 good convection around the developing eye, looks like a cane finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:54Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 09 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 30 Observation Number: 20 Part B: Data For Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels... Level Air Temperature Dew Point 988mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.3°C (77.5°F) 850mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 764mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) 16.0°C (60.8°F) 752mb 14.8°C (58.6°F) 14.8°C (58.6°F) Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 988mb (Surface) 195° (from the SSW) 70 knots (81 mph) 983mb 190° (from the S) 67 knots (77 mph) 970mb 185° (from the S) 77 knots (89 mph) 939mb 190° (from the S) 81 knots (93 mph) 909mb 195° (from the SSW) 74 knots (85 mph) 896mb 200° (from the SSW) 67 knots (77 mph) 850mb 210° (from the SSW) 64 knots (74 mph) 752mb 220° (from the SW) 54 knots (62 mph) Surface winds of 70kt is good enough for an upgrade for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Dropsonde has 70kt surface winds.Should be enough for an upgrade soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 latest rb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Every reading I see on the south and east side shows 80-90 mph flight level winds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 From the buoy data, looks like the average water temperature ahead of Isaac is 83F-84F. Still plenty warm I think for strengthening up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Dropsonde has 70kt surface winds.Should be enough for an upgrade soon. That would be really close to their forecast. 2H 28/1800Z 28.5N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Time: 13:17:00Z Coordinates: 28.6333N 87.6833W Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg) Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,410 meters (~ 4,626 feet) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.6 mb (~ 29.28 inHg) D-value: - Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 139° at 85 knots (From the SE at ~ 97.7 mph) Air Temp: 16.0°C* (~ 60.8°F*) Dew Pt: 16.0°C* (~ 60.8°F*) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 89 knots (~ 102.3 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr) (*) Denotes suspect data If this stuff starts coming down to the surface soon, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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