jconsor Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This is probably enough for an upgrade to hurricane status: Release Location: 27.41N 87.2W (View map) Release Time: 9:20:42Z Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels... Level Air Temperature Dew Point 989mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F) 955mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 753mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 13.1°C (55.6°F) Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 989mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) 981mb 165° (from the SSE) 76 knots (87 mph) 940mb 175° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph) 893mb 180° (from the S) 70 knots (81 mph) 850mb 180° (from the S) 66 knots (76 mph) 753mb 180° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This is probably enough for an upgrade to hurricane status: Release Location: 27.41N 87.2W (View map) Release Time: 9:20:42Z Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels... Level Air Temperature Dew Point 989mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F) 955mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 753mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 13.1°C (55.6°F) Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 989mb (Surface) 170° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) 981mb 165° (from the SSE) 76 knots (87 mph) 940mb 175° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph) 893mb 180° (from the S) 70 knots (81 mph) 850mb 180° (from the S) 66 knots (76 mph) 753mb 180° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) Yeah and it should organize a little from what I see today. Just kind of looking at stuff now. It might be one of those things where even though the north side is awful looking...it tries to wrap around a narrow band of convection around the center perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 2 eye dropsondes from the NOAA plane. One has 978mb pressure and 10kt surface wind. The other 977mb pressure and 15kt surface wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Frictional convergence, will be a major factor for this storm wrt strengthening, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks to me like its finally really starting to wrap itself up with a clear eye now atleast what looks to be an eye..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like the eye cleared out finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like the eye cleared out finally. Nice shot. I don't think we will be calling him tropical storm for to much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It took all night but that finally looks like a legit eye...convection to the north still looks a bit ragged though and the best window for intensification has probably passed. Will be interesting to see how much is left in the tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:21Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 30 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 9:31:45Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°30'N 87°59'W (27.5N 87.9833W) B. Center Fix Location: 208 miles (336 km) to the SSW (193°) from Pensacola, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level (Undecoded): NA NA D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 180° at 75kts (From the S at ~ 86.3mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,437m (7,995ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,440m (8,005ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the east quadrant at 9:14:32Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the west quadrant at 9:52:27Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It's a better environment today so it should strengthen some. Environment is more moist with relatively low shear to boot. Outflow looks nice to the south. NHC intensity looks pretty good as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It looks like all the dry air in the gulf coupled with the large storm size is the reason that we have only seen modest strengthening with Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I wonder if we see a quick jump to 70kts or so once this thing wraps convection around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The West quad winds look weak. Two dropsondes from NOAA plane, only showed surface winds barely up to TS force. Also Rick Knabb on TWC, said all the data shows it's still just under hurricane strength. That 71mph surface wind dropsonde earlier, didn't convince them to upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The rains from this storm could be tremendous in LA once this slows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looking at IR, it looks like Isaac is gonna have a very tiny eye. Is that normal for a large cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looking at IR, it looks like Isaac is gonna have a very tiny eye. Is that normal for a large cyclone? I'm not aware of any studies correlating RMW/Reye with R34/ROCI, but you only need to go back to Hurricane Alex (2010) for a large storm with a small eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm not aware of any studies correlating RMW/Reye with R34/ROCI, but you only need to go back to Hurricane Alex (2010) for a large storm with a small eye. Opal is another good example as was mentioned last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks to me like its finally really starting to wrap itself up with a clear eye now atleast what looks to be an eye..... So, WTH, we have a TS with a clealy defined eye? This is breaking every rule in the book. Does anyone know what the use of Dvorak scoring alone would estimate strength? Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 So, WTH, we have a TS with a clealy defined eye? This is breaking every rule in the book. Does anyone know what the use of Dvorak scoring alone would estimate strength? Sent from my Milestone X 2 SAB has T4.0, ADT had T3.4. TAFB has T4.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looking at IR, it looks like Isaac is gonna have a very tiny eye. Is that normal for a large cyclone? IR imagery isn't the best method of determining the surfac eye character/size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 So, WTH, we have a TS with a clealy defined eye? This is breaking every rule in the book. Does anyone know what the use of Dvorak scoring alone would estimate strength? Sent from my Milestone X 2 Having a tropical storm with an eye is not all that unusual. In fact Ernesto had one a good 24 hours before it was upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm not aware of any studies correlating RMW/Reye with R34/ROCI, but you only need to go back to Hurricane Alex (2010) for a large storm with a small eye. Opal is another good example as was mentioned last night. Ok, thank you to the both of you for responding to my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Regarding the track of Isaac after landfall, I notice the 0Z Euro has finally caved to the idea of a slow westward track into TX then up the border into E OK.that the GFS has been showing for several days now. The official track was nudged slightly west but not nears as far west as the mean of these two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 11:37Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 30 Observation Number: 13 A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:03:52Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°47'N 88°08'W (27.7833N 88.1333W) B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (306 km) to the SSE (163°) from Gulfport, MS, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level (Undecoded): NA NA D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the S (174°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 257° at 69kts (From the WSW at ~ 79.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the S (174°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,425m (7,956ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,437m (7,995ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the east quadrant at 9:14:32Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 11:24:40Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SEC MAX FL WIND 66 KT BRNG:175 deg RNG:103 nm SLP EXTRAP FROM 8K FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Odd seeing a gulf cane with a very weak looking northern half. Any reason why the northern half is struggling? Seems to be the story with this guy, that each quad has had rough patches the kst few days, and as soon as it starts to look better, the next quad starts to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The West quad winds look weak. Two dropsondes from NOAA plane, only showed surface winds barely up to TS force. Also Rick Knabb on TWC, said all the data shows it's still just under hurricane strength. That 71mph surface wind dropsonde earlier, didn't convince them to upgrade. Rick Knabb is not going to announce on TWC that they are upgrading to a hurricane. The NWS has very strict policies on that kind of information being disseminated via products. USAF plane about to penetrate eye has extrap SLP of 968.4 mb with 32 knot north winds. Will be interesting to see what the drop shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 SAB has T4.0, ADT had T3.4. TAFB has T4.5. So, split the middle and that's Cat 1. Although I have no idea how it's getting a 3.4 from anybody... almost looks as if someone is letting the other data skew their assessment. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE... SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 88.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 So, split the middle and that's Cat 1. Although I have no idea how it's getting a 3.4 from anybody... almost looks as if someone is letting the other data skew their assessment. ADT is computer automated and totally objective. And why would anyone bother with satellite estimates when there has been full time recon coverage for the last 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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