My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 531 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY INDICATES A LOW RISK. 13/JC && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRY AND RELATIVELY RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ISAAC WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 24/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY...WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS BRINGING ISAAC UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION BETWEEN THE MOBILE BAY REGION AND THE DESTIN FLORIDA AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 29/00Z AND 29/12Z (TUESDAY NIGHT). NEARLY ALL OF THE 34/00Z TROPICAL FCST GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STORM UP TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO AROUND APALACHICOLA FLORIDA IN THE. WHILE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 5 DAYS FROM NOW...BUT THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY OVER THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ISAAC NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER AND ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO FARTHER TO THE EAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM UP TOWARD THE GENERAL AREA OF MOBILE BAY EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HOWEVER. THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM UP TOWARD THE AL/FL BORDER AS A 75-80 KNOT HURRICANE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS POSITION. ANY CHANGE LIKE THIS COULD DRASTICALLY ALTER THE FUTURE FCST TRACK OF THE STORM...SO THE CURRENT FCST TRACK AND THE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED. FOR NOW...FCST CALLS FOR WINDS AND PCPN TO BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CURRENT FCST REASONING MENTIONED ABOVE...WENT ABOVE MAV MOS POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER MAX TEMPS AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. 12/DS && .AVIATION (24.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC && .MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUNDAY... TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND HIGHER ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. 13/JC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CHART FEATURES INCLUDE 500 MB TROUGH APPEARING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DEEP RIDGE NOSING IN FROM WESTLANT FROM SURFACE TO 500 MB. A CLOSED UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE NOSING IN FROM WESTLANT. WEAK VORTLOBES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH EXCEPT PERHAPS CLOUD COVER. LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND LI IS ABOUT +1. RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY LAYER WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE. STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS CLOSELY AGREE ON THE NEAR TERM. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS. /77 .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. DRY AND RAIN FREE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DETERIORATING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ISAAC WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT...BRINGING ISAAC TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND PANAMA CITY BETWEEN 29/00Z AND 29/12Z (TUESDAY NIGHT). WHILE MODELS SHIFTED EAST AND ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 4 TO 5 DAYS HENCE...AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. THE 20/2000Z NHC FORECAST TRACK SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY EAST...LESS THAN 10 MILES...BRINGING THE STORM TOWARD APALACHICOLA AT CAT 1 STRENGTH...75-80 KNOT...TUESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY AT LONGER RANGES. REPEATING...CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THE EFFECTS ON OUR AREA ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE FORECAST IS FOR WINDS AND PRECIP TO BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH FORECAST REASONING MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT...LEFT POPS ABOVE MAV MOS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER MAX TEMPS AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. /77 && .MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. /29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 551 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES AT KLIX AND 1.37 INCHES AT KTLH. THE COMBINATION GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS. A SILENT 10 POP WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY INDICATES A LOW RISK. 13/JC && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRY AND RELATIVELY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE ISAAC WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ISAAC MOVED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND HAS RE-EMERGED OVER OPEN WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CUBAN COAST. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE STRAITS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 25/00Z GFS AND 06Z TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL BRINGING ISAAC TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE LEFT OUTLIER...NOW BRINGS THE STORM INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS IN BOTH TIMING AND TRACK...AND BRINGS ISAAC TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 80 KNOT CAT1 HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY AT LONGER RANGES...AND ISAAC COULD BE STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT ALL OF THE LOCAL GULF COAST REGION IS WITHIN THE CONE OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE... AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM. STAY TUNED. FOR NOW...FCST CALLS FOR WINDS AND PCPN TO BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH CURRENT FCST REASONING MENTIONED ABOVE AND WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WENT ABOVE MOS POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERTISING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. EARLY ESTIMATES AND FCSTS INDICATE THAT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PART OF THE FCST AREA... PRIMARILY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS INCREASED CLOUDS/PCPN IS EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. 12/DS && .AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC && .MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUNDAY... TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 13/JC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 648 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES AT KLIX AND 1.37 INCHES AT KTLH. THE COMBINATION GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS. A SILENT 10 POP WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY INDICATES A LOW RISK. 13/JC && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRY AND RELATIVELY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ISAAC MOVED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND HAS RE-EMERGED OVER OPEN WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CUBAN COAST. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE STRAITS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 25/00Z GFS AND 06Z TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL BRINGING ISAAC TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE LEFT OUTLIER...NOW BRINGS THE STORM INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS IN BOTH TIMING AND TRACK...AND BRINGS ISAAC TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 80 KNOT CAT1 HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER RANGES...AND ISAAC COULD BE STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT ALL OF THE LOCAL GULF COAST REGION IS WITHIN THE CONE OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM. STAY TUNED. FOR NOW...FCST CALLS FOR WINDS AND PCPN TO BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH CURRENT FCST REASONING MENTIONED ABOVE AND WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WENT ABOVE MOS POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERTISING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. EARLY ESTIMATES AND FCSTS INDICATE THAT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PART OF THE FCST AREA...PRIMARILY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS INCREASED CLOUDS/PCPN IS EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. 12/DS && .AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC && .MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUNDAY... TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 13/JC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 341 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS PER POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 01/JC .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TROPICS AS ISAAC SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ISAAC APPROACHES THE AREA. THE LATEST 25/1200Z GFS MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF ISAAC DIRECTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS DONE A REVERSAL AND PULLED ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD APALACHICOLA. THE TROPICAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS WELL BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SURFACE LEVEL HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS INITIALIZATION. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 26/0000Z GFS RUN SWINGING ITS SOLUTION BACK TO THE EAST IF THE INITIALIZATION PACKAGE REFLECTS A TRUER OBSERVATION. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM NOW...AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. IT IS LIKELY THOUGH THAT THE STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN US GULF COAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE STORM SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT NO ONE SHOULD BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT FORECAST PATH OF THE STORM THIS EARLY. INSTEAD...FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS WHICH WILL GIVE YOU A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. CURRENTLY...OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES HAVE A 40-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 120 HOURS. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IS A ONE IN TWO CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE DEFINED AS WINDS BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH. ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...THE PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 40-60 PERCENT AND ACROSS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN FLORIDA...THE CHANCES INCREASE FROM 50-70 PERCENT. TO PUT THAT INTO PERSPECTIVE...A 66 PERCENT CHANCE IS APPROXIMATELY A TWO IN THREE CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE WINDS /58 MPH OR GREATER/ WITHIN THE NEXT 120 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARLY ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THEN IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. 01/JC && .AVIATION / 25/1800 UTC ISSUANCE /...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH MAYBE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 15Z SUN BECOMING MOSTLY EAST LATE IN THE DAY. 32/EE && .MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUNDAY...TRACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ISAAC TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 32/EE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 555 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS... .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO FORM...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY INDICATES A LOW RISK. 13/JC && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HURRICANE WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...AND TROPICAL STORM AND/OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FARTHER INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WEST THIS MORNING...AND THE OFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC REGARDING THE TRACK OF ISAAC HAS ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER WEST. THE ENTIRE WFO MOBILE FCST AREA IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FCST CONE...AND IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT ISAAC WILL IMPACT OUR FCST AREA. PROJECTIONS STILL INDICATE THAT ISAAC WILL BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ISAAC WILL REACH CAT2 INTENSITY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY AT LONGER RANGES...AND ISAAC COULD BE STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS NOTED...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF ISAAC...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC NOW BRINGS THE HURRICANE ASHORE AROUND THE FL/AL BORDER AT 29/06Z. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM...THOSE LIVING ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FCST CONE AND THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WENT ABOVE MOS POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ADVERTISING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. EARLY ESTIMATES AND FCSTS INDICATE THAT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH TEMPERATURES. 12/DS && .AVIATION (26/12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC && .MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN INCREASING HEADING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO TREND HIGHER. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY...TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY THEN TURNING NORTHWARD...APPROACHING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS BECOMING POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INCLUDING ALL BAYS AND INLAND WATERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. 13/JC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1258 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS... .PUBLIC UPDATE...A DRY DAY TODAY THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. NO NEAR TERM UPDATES WERE NEEDED. HURRICANE WATCHES CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AL/NW FL COAST. WE ARE STILL SEEING SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF ISAAC. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TURN ISAAC MORE NORTH (LIKELY RESULTING IN A LANDFALL IN OUR CWA) OR DOES THE STORM GET TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST (LANDFALL IN SE LOUISIANA AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z GFS). GIVEN SUCH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL PATH...PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER LINE OF THE TRACK. OUR ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS STILL POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 425 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR OF THE AL/NW FL COAST. WE ARE ALSO ISSUING A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS STONE/GEORGE IN INLAND SE MS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSITION AND TRACK OF ISAAC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TURN ISAAC MORE NORTH (LIKELY RESULTING IN A LANDFALL IN OUR CWA AND SHOWN BY THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN) OR DOES THE STORM GET TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST (LANDFALL IN SE LOUISIANA AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z GFS). GIVEN THAT SUCH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL PATH...PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER LINE OF THE TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PROBABLE HURRICANE. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FROM E AND SE FROM ISAAC FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY SPREADING NORTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT. NEAR THE COAST EXPECT LIKELY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING SHIFTING WEST AND NORTH OVER MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RADII OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS QUITE LARGE...SO COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (AT LEAST IN SQUALLS) AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY EVENING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO NOTED WAS THE SPEED OF ISAAC THIS MORNING...AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. WITH THIS SPEED ISAAC COULD REACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLIER THEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SO EVERYONE IN THE PATH OF ISAAC SHOULD STAY ABREAST TO ALL FORECAST UPDATES. ON THE FLIP SIDE...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO IT ENTERING THE COL REGION BETWEEN THE TROUGH WELL TO THE NE AND THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS EAST AND WEST OF THE REGION. AGAIN...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS WILL BE FELT FAR FROM THE STORMS CENTER. AS ALWAYS TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANCE CONDITIONS CAN BRING THE ONSET OF TORNADOES WHICH WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD WHICH DEPICTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 32/EE 34/JFB && .LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM SOUTHEAST ALLOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROF TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. 32/EE && .AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW SIDE OF ISAAC AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MID MONDAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT...GUSTING TO 25 KT AT TIMES. 34/JFB && .MARINE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING INTO MOBILE BAY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF ISAAC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WITH HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 30 FEET POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. EVEN HIGHER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ISAAC MOVES WELL INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 .UPDATE...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS EMERGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND IS TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP... AT AROUND 16 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...AS MEASURED BY RECON MISSION DOWN TO 992 MB - 29.29". DEEP CONVECTION AROUND ISAAC`S INNER CORE HAS EXPANDED WITH A BURST OF COLD CLOUD TOPS BEING MEASURED AT -80 DEGREES C. INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE MAKING IMPACTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST MODELS ON LANDFALL...IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE THREAT CONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM DESTIN TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE COASTAL WATCHES TO HURRICANE WARNINGS GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII. THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITIES...HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO AN UPDATED MARINE AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE. GIVEN THE LATEST QPF AND THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE WET...RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE STORM...FORECASTERS HAVE ALSO MENTIONED HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH ISAAC`S RAIN BANDS. .AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW SIDE OF ISAAC AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MID MONDAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT...GUSTING TO 25 KT AT TIMES. 34/JFB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 430 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL EYES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAIN CENTERED ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC INDICATES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WEST OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH EVEN THE EASTERN OUTLIERS (ECMWF AND UKMET) SHIFTING WEST BUT STILL EAST OF THE GFS TRACK. THE NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE AS THE INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER LINE OF THE TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PROBABLE HURRICANE. ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION EARLY TODAY AS RAIN CHANCES AND WIND WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RADII OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS QUITE LARGE...SO COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (AT LEAST IN SQUALLS) AS EARLY AS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD BE IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STORM SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO IT ENTERING THE COL REGION BETWEEN THE TROUGH WELL TO THE NE AND THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS EAST AND WEST OF THE REGION. AGAIN...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS WILL BE FELT FAR FROM THE STORMS CENTER. AS ALWAYS TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANCE CONDITIONS CAN BRING THE ONSET OF TORNADOES WHICH WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. /13 && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A A LEFTOVER WEAKNESS FROM ISAAC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /13 && .AVIATION... (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SEEING AN INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /29 && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS ISAAC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 436 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012 .SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE AND RECON OBSERVATIONS AND LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE CENTER HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT HAS ORGANIZED AND THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF ISAAC MAKING LANDFALL IN SE LA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME INTO LINE WITH THIS GENERAL THINKING. GIVEN A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LANDFALL WEST OF OUR AREA...WE ARE ABLE TO TRANSITION THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST AND THE CENTER WOBBLES BACK SOME TO THE EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE WELL WEST OF THE REGION...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL STILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR AREA. STORM SURGE IS ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 6-9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...VALUES CLOSER TO 6 FEET ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF ISAAC INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST...VALUES COULD APPROACH THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. ONE THING WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR IS THE FORWARD SPEED OF ISAAC AS IT NEARS THE COAST. THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD PROLONG THE STRONG ONSHORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH WOULD BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IN MOBILE BAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT SURGE VALUES OF 3-6 FT FOR THE FL PANHANDLE...HIGHER WEST VS. EAST...WITH THE 6 FT PORTION OF THE RANGE MORE LIKELY IF WE SEE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...THE ZONE OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN ZONES (WEST AL COUNTIES AND INLAND SE MS). RAIN TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTALS COULD EVEN BE HIGHER IF THE STORM DECELERATES OR STALLS. RAIN TOTALS WILL TAPER TO 3-6 INCHES IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THESE TOTALS AND THE WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER EAST IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST. AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. 34/JFB .LONG TERM...[THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA OR MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY...THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE DECREASING THEM TO HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE BY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS MAY FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. /21 && .AVIATION...[27/18Z ISSUANCE]...MAIN PROBLEM IS WIND ALTHOUGH CIGS AND VIS WILL REACH CLOSE TO IFR BY 01Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ENTAILING HANDLING PROBLEMS NEAR THE GROUND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GROUND. && .MARINE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY ENCROACHING UPON THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A PLATFORM 75 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND GUSTING TO 43 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AS ISAAC CONTINUES NW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND JUST BEYOND 200 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO MOBILE BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...INCREASING IN STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF ISAAC TRACKS WEST OF THE AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ALABAMA GULF WATERS...AND POTENTIALLY IN MOBILE BAY (MAINLY IN GUSTS) IF ISSAC TRACKS A LITTLE EAST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 20 TO 30 FEET BY TUESDAY AND BAY WATERS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC. 34/JFB && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSION THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ISAAC. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE BRINGING DISPERSION UP TO 120 IN MIXED LAYER DEPTH OF 4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE WIND WILL PLAY A LARGER PART IN THE DISPERSION PROCESS THAN IN NORMAL SITUATIONS WITH NEUTRAL STABILITY IN MIXED LAYER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /77 && .HYDROLOGY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC EXISTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR ISAAC...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH TOTALS PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES. IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...SIGNIFICANT RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH SOME REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE. LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD ALSO BE ANTICIPATED. /08 JW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE WELL WEST OF THE REGION...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL STILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR AREA. STORM SURGE IS ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 6-9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...VALUES CLOSER TO 6 FEET ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF ISAAC INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST...VALUES COULD APPROACH THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. ONE THING WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR IS THE FORWARD SPEED OF ISAAC AS IT NEARS THE COAST. THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD PROLONG THE STRONG ONSHORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH WOULD BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IN MOBILE BAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT SURGE VALUES OF 3-6 FT FOR THE FL PANHANDLE...HIGHER WEST VS. EAST...WITH THE 6 FT PORTION OF THE RANGE MORE LIKELY IF WE SEE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AREA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST BUT TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG WITH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. /13 $$ .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH WILL SPREAD PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. /13 && .AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE OUTER WIND PERIPHERY OF ISAAC INCREASINGLY AFFECTS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING IN SHOWERS TO 2-3 NM BEGINNING MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS 12-18 KNOTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 27-35 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. /29 && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. ISAAC IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AND THE CURRENT TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS ISAAC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ISAAC CONTINUES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 339 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) HURRICANE ISAAC IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE NORTHWESTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE OUTDOOR BANDS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE. EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE ONSHORE AND NORTHWARD INTO INLAND COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH THESE STORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES CLIMBING INTO THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA (MOBILE, BALDWIN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES) AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE CORE AND ALONG STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM. EXPECT DRIER AIR EAST WILL SOMEWHAT INHIBIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO HAVE FOCUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ON THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED AREAS. ALSO THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THESE OUTER BANDS ROTATING OFF OF ISAAC INTO THE EVENING. PROVIDED ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT FROM EAST (FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA) TO WEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC AS MOIST SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. IT APPEARS THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY./08 JW .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) AS ISAAC SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE TWO INCHES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR AN ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THEN HINTS AT A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. /08 JW && .AVIATION...THE MAIN FLYING HAZARDS WIND AND ITS EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON AIRPORT/AIRFIELD OPERATIONS. WIND EAST TO NORTHEAST 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS VEERING ROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 35 GUST 45 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS AND VSBY ALSO PROBLEMATIC. THIS SITUATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 21Z WEDNESDAY...WIND WOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY WITH DECREASING SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ISAAC MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ISAAC BECAME A HURRICANE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS ISAAC TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ISAAC CONTINUES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. /77 && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSION THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE PRESENCE OF ISAAC. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE BRINGING DISPERSION 60 TO 120 IN MIXED LAYER DEPTH OF 3500 TO 4500 FEET WEDNESDAY AND 2000 TO 3000 FEET THURSDAY. HIGHEST DISPERSION TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WIND IS HIGHER...AND LOWEST NORTHEAST. DISPERSION DECREASING TO 60 TO 70 THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL PLAY A LARGER PART IN THE DISPERSION PROCESS THAN IN NORMAL SITUATIONS...AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE MIXED LAYER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /77 && .HYDROLOGY...HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ISAAC ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CERTAINTY ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 8 TO 10 INCH RANGE HOWEVER HEAVIER RAIN BANDS COULD INCREASE THESE AMOUNTS. AREAS OF CONCERN OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA ARE THE FISH RIVER IN BALDWIN COUNTY. AREAS OF CONCERN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE THE LEAF RIVER...THE CHICKASAWHAY RIVER...AND THE PASCAGOULA RIVER. AT THE PRESENT TIME MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED HOWEVER THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD DEPENDING ON CHANGING CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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