Where will Isaac make its final landfall?

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm curious how a "crowdsourced" consensus will verify 72 hr out. Please vote!

[HurricaneJosh]

What most impresses me so far with the results is that people have completely given up on the idea of a Florida landfall. Period.

(Personally, I haven't.)

[Stebo]

What most impresses me so far with the results is that people have completely given up on the idea of a Florida landfall. Period.

(Personally, I haven't.)

I haven't completely given up on it, however I think the odds are quickly lowering unless something dramatically changes.

[CooL]

I voted lousiana for sure because the models have not shifted east significantly for days, and the generally trends have been west..and personally I dont think that trough is strong enough and or far enough south to pull isaac north or nne.

[Sunny and Warm]

I voted lousiana for sure because the models have not shifted east significantly for days, and the generally trends have been west..and personally I dont think that trough is strong enough and or far enough south to pull isaac north or nne.

agree strongly. The further west solutions also are the least likely to have an east components beyond LF. I will take a gander to say that LF will be within 10 miles of Pass Christian, MS. That is where Camille made LF and where Katrina came very close to landfalling.

[Roger Smith]

At this point, I would predict landfall at cat 2/3 on Wed 29th 06z-12z close to Mobile Bay perhaps between Biloxi and MS-AL border. That would place Mobile Bay in the strongest section of the storm and rather close to full moon which is Friday (14z). Anything between Panama City and New Orleans close to equal risk at this early stage.

[isohume]

[mempho]

Obviously, it's New Orleans. There are no coincidences.

Sent from my Milestone X 2

[Voyager]

What most impresses me so far with the results is that people have completely given up on the idea of a Florida landfall. Period.

(Personally, I haven't.)

I haven't completely given up on it, however I think the odds are quickly lowering unless something dramatically changes.

The models do seem to be honing in on a AL/MS/LA landfall at this point in time. Not that FL is out of the woods, but I think a MS/LA area (Slidell to Biloxi perhaps) might be a good guess right now.

[Cory]

Houma, LA

[WNCwx]

Mobile, Alabama.

[Dunkman]

Should the FL for sure people be 5 posted?

[Ground Scouring]

Obviously, it's New Orleans. There are no coincidences.

Sent from my Milestone X 2

Numerologist?

Anyway, my idea is that Isaac will not really intensify until about 36 hours later, with the bulk (60% or a bit more) of the intensification occurring within the last 24 hours remaining before landfall. Given the slower initial movement, plus the stronger ridge and gradual short-term intensification, I expect a slightly earlier arrival in LA than the GFS does, around 00Z Wednesday. There is evidence of mid-level dry air that should continue to impede strengthening over the next 36 hours, followed by more rapid strengthening thereafter as the mid-levels moisten up.

Peak intensity: 105 kt around ~12Z Tuesday, over the Loop Current

Landfall: Near Morgan City, LA, ~00Z Wednesday

Landfall intensity: 95 kt due to slow movement and upwelling (could be 10 kt too aggressive)

[EastCoastLow]

I like Pensacola.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I kept thinking Texas/LA border

Oh well

[Chrisrotary12]

Morgan City, LA

[DoctorMu]

Cameron, LA

[free_man]

What do I win for picking LA first of all? 5 posted!? ;p

[H2O]

I kept thinking Texas/LA border

Oh well

You may be right after all.