Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Honestly, you can't beat Plaquemines Parish for landfall if you want to see the most severe stuff. Now, it is risky, but there will be some seasoned storm vets there who'll show you good hospitality during the storm. Sent from my Milestone X 2 I know the Shell heliport in BVE flooded enough to total cars during Cat 1 Danny in 1997. Nowhere in that parish is much above sea level, and I don't know how it works with one main road down during a mando evac. Checkpoints at Belle Chase and maybe Port Sulfur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 In case y'all wondered what we were doing all day... Last night I drove from Gulfport, Mississippi, across Lake Pontchartrain and into New Orleans, then deep into the bayou country south of the city. I arrived in Houma, Louisiana, at dawn. It's a rusty, ramshackle old Gulf oil city on a flat, swampy expanse—deep in the middle of nowhere, feeling somehow forgotten—like it's slipping off the edge of the earth. Completely exhausted after almost 24 hours of nonstop traveling, I checked into a hotel, did some work, and crashed. After I awoke and did some errands, I spent the early evening doing a thorough exploration of the "chase zone"—the 40-mile-wide swath north and east of Houma through which Scott, Adam, Jorge, and I felt the cyclone's center was likely to pass. The exploration was actually a survey: I visited a variety of small swamp towns, noting all the things you want to know about a place before deciding to ride out a hurricane in it—elevations, buildings, infrastructure, overpasses and other "safe zones" (to retreat to in the event of a massive tidal inundation), and so on. The bottom line: this area between Houma and New Orleans is extremely low-lying, with some towns hardly more than 2 ft above sea level, and a lot of the buildings are old and rickety. Needless to say, this is risky chase turf. A knowledgeable local—one of the housekeepers in my hotel—gave me a thorough rundown of which towns will go completely underwater even in a minimal hurricane. She should know—she was here for Katrina, Gustav, and others. But all this might all be a moot point for two reasons: Isaac has not gotten much stronger in the last 24 hr, and the possibility of a strong hurricane impact is decreasing. There are subtle hints that the projected landfall point may be further to the right than we believed today—so that we have to again rethink the strategy. A relocation further north and east may be required this morning—Scott and I are discussing it. This aside... Houma was buzzing this afternoon and evening as townspeople calmly filled up their gas tanks, stocked up on water, and prepared to be without electricity for days. These are the tough, hardened people of America's hurricane country—they've been through this drill many times and they face it bravely and stoically. A gorgeous, peach-colored sunset gave Houma a soft sort of beauty that I hadn't previously noticed in it. For now—sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Josh, did you see the 00z Euro? It came wayyyyyyy west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Josh, did you see the 00z Euro? It came wayyyyyyy west from 12z. Yep! That and the W jog with the VDMs has Scott and me again reconsidering strategy. This one is a total freak-- we've never had so much trouble getting a handle on a system, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It has definitely slowed down in the past few hours, and seems to be jogging west. Interesting to see the next VDM This system has been an absolute and hilarious mess. Best of luck chasing this thing Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Now that we're down to the last 24 hours before landfall, we'll be moderating this thread a little bit more strictly. To echo earlier comments in the thread, let's try to keep the bantering, bickering, and off-topic posts somewhere else. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Now that we're down to the last 24 hours before landfall, we'll be moderating this thread a little bit more strictly. To echo earlier comments in the thread, let's try to keep the bantering, bickering, and off-topic posts somewhere else. Thanks. Welcome back, Bendy Mod. Happy Hunting Josh. Anywhwere South of Houma (towards Cocodrie) would make me nervous, and there are draw bridges over the various bayous that might be left up to discourage traffic South after the evacs to keep looters out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Josh surely already knows this, but it now appears that, barring wobbles, Houma will not be in the eye. The eye will likely pass just S of there, but that does put Houma in nearly perfect position for those RF quad eyewall winds. New advisory just in: pressure down to 976, but still 70mph, per TWC. Important EDIT: I just overlayed the model tracks onto the radar, and they pretty much all take Isaac EAST of Houma. That means that what I am currently seeing (more westerly movement) is likely just a wobble itself. You probably ought to expect the motion to soon return to more northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 First vis image of the day. Good morning, Isaac. Good morning, Josh. Here's what the radar is looking like. Any changes requested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I was just reading the main thread, and from what is being posted there it's pretty clear that we will all be saying "Hurricane Isaac" very very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yep! That and the W jog with the VDMs has Scott and me again reconsidering strategy. This one is a total freak-- we've never had so much trouble getting a handle on a system, Yea there have been a lot of shifts back and forth. The immediate shift west in all the guidance (short range and global) plus the westward obs from Isaac leads me to believe the further west solution is probably the way to go. In other words, you have set yourself up perfectly! I'm still thinking a max intensity in the Cat 2 range when it comes ashore late tonight or early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There seems to be a new, smaller eye forming. Just look at the difference between the first image I saved from this morning (952Z), and the latest one (1230Z). I won't try to analyze what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 First vis image of the day. Good morning, Isaac. Good morning, Josh. Here's what the radar is looking like. Any changes requested? Perfect, Bobby-- thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 It has definitely slowed down in the past few hours, and seems to be jogging west. Interesting to see the next VDM This system has been an absolute and hilarious mess. Best of luck chasing this thing Josh Thanks, man. Now that we're down to the last 24 hours before landfall, we'll be moderating this thread a little bit more strictly. To echo earlier comments in the thread, let's try to keep the bantering, bickering, and off-topic posts somewhere else. Thanks. Welcome back, Bendy Mod. Happy Hunting Josh. Anywhwere South of Houma (towards Cocodrie) would make me nervous, and there are draw bridges over the various bayous that might be left up to discourage traffic South after the evacs to keep looters out. Thanks, Ed. Yes, areas S and E of here are tricky. My goal is to get as far E as a I reasonably can. We'll see. Josh surely already knows this, but it now appears that, barring wobbles, Houma will not be in the eye. The eye will likely pass just S of there, but that does put Houma in nearly perfect position for those RF quad eyewall winds. New advisory just in: pressure down to 976, but still 70mph, per TWC. Important EDIT: I just overlayed the model tracks onto the radar, and they pretty much all take Isaac EAST of Houma. That means that what I am currently seeing (more westerly movement) is likely just a wobble itself. You probably ought to expect the motion to soon return to more northerly. To be clear, Houma is my current staging area. The intention was never for me to just sit in the hotel waiting for the cyclone. As with any chases, refinements in my position-- most likely to the E-- will be necessary. Yea there have been a lot of shifts back and forth. The immediate shift west in all the guidance (short range and global) plus the westward obs from Isaac leads me to believe the further west solution is probably the way to go. In other words, you have set yourself up perfectly! I'm still thinking a max intensity in the Cat 2 range when it comes ashore late tonight or early tomorrow. Wow-- cool. There seems to be a new, smaller eye forming. Just look at the difference between the first image I saved from this morning (952Z), and the latest one (1230Z). I won't try to analyze what it means. :wthumbsup: Wow-- that is an improvement! Heartwarmin' change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Josh, I don't know why I never thought of this before. I have uploaded ALL the radar images to Dropbox. They are sitting there waiting for you, so if you desire, you can download them right now, then use an image viewer to run loops. Real time, baby! Edit: somebody posted that 88kt FL was recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Josh, I don't know why I never thought of this before. I have uploaded ALL the radar images to Dropbox. They are sitting there waiting for you, so if you desire, you can download them right now, then use an image viewer to run loops. Real time, baby! Thanks, Bobby! I can wait for them at the end, if that's easier. I don't want to create additional work for ya. Edit: somebody posted that 88kt FL was recorded. Really? Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Just overlaid models onto the radar again... all shifted W, and the eye could be wobbling back N now, finally, which possibly puts Houma in the eye. Keep your fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Thanks, Bobby! I can wait for them at the end, if that's easier. I don't want to create additional work for ya. Really? Awesome. I may stop doing that later, but right now is the time that that data could help you, and it only takes about 5 seconds each time. EDIT: just saw my mail. okey dokey, but still uploading for now... might as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 1005.0 mb in Houma. Warm, cloudy, and breezy. Slight sprinkle recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The nearest stations to you are KGAO, at South Lafourche airport outside Galliano, which is 110 degrees from Houma (ESE), and 25nm which reports 1003 hPa, and buoy BYGL1, 55 degrees (ENE) and 19nm, which reports 1003.9 hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 The nearest stations to you are KGAO, at South Lafourche airport outside Galliano, which is 110 degrees from Houma (ESE), and 25nm which reports 1003 hPa, and buoy BYGL1, 55 degrees (ENE) and 19nm, which reports 1003.9 hPa. I just measured 1004.5 mb. Since I'm a bit WNW of Galliano-- and further from the center-- that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 On a side note... If they don't upgrade this thing to a hurricane at 10 am CDT, my head's gonna explode. I find it embarrassing and undignified to be chasing a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I think NHC will upgrade. But you can already say you chased the TS with the lowest pre hurricane pressure ever in the Atlantic. That's historic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Other posters are saying 975mb, 70kt sfc winds and up to 100mph FL. 13Z RAP run still seems to prog Isaac offshore at 17 hrs, i.e. 6Z. Same thing with the 11Z run of the HRRR for 14 hours, i.e. 01Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 No upgrade. My head exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 On a side note... If they don't upgrade this thing to a hurricane at 10 am CDT, my head's gonna explode. I find it embarrassing and undignified to be chasing a tropical storm. My condolences regarding your head ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 ...ISAAC STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 88.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 My condolences regarding your head Beat you to the punch line (see above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 I suppose when the pressure gets down into the 950s there might be some 65-kt surface winds somewhere. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 No upgrade. My head exploded. LOL! FWIW, here's a cloud tops image. At some point here, I should point out that Isaac is quite far from the radar; that tower in the SW quad is 155nm from Slidell (the radar site), and the base reflectivity slice reaches it at 55K feet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 You're fast. Which is more than I can say about Isaac's winds speeds... The Banter thread would be perfect for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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