iCyclone Chase: ISAAC

[Connor McCrorey]

Please share

One of these is almost identical to what we were actually just discussing, while the other is on the opposite end of the spectrum. http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/08/beware-of-politicians-that-forecast.html?spref=fb

Fair enough, but then at the same time can we be careful to not overhype the potential?

Absolutely. The only problem I see is that for Isaac, we don't really know what qualifies as overhyping yet. Is a Category 4 hurricane nailing New Orleans unlikely? Yes, but I think it's more likely than a TS landfall. Anywhere for that matter. It's difficult to communicate the multitude of scenarios that could play out to the public, but I think most seem to have done a good job at keeping a level head with Isaac, while still acknowledging the potential for something big.

[BxEngine]

Can you guys continue this discussion somewhere other than the chase thread please?

[Kennethb]

Josh:

If you are headed to LA you better get here quick. Roads south will be blocked. I am sure you are aware after Gus.

If you come in or through BR let me know.

Mississippi Gulf Coast has raised parking lots at casinos which offers some safer conditions.

Good luck.

[Connor McCrorey]

Josh:

If you are headed to LA you better get here quick. Roads south will be blocked. I am sure you are aware after Gus.

If you come in or through BR let me know.

Mississippi Gulf Coast has raised parking lots at casinos which offers some safer conditions.

Good luck.

Any suggestions coming from the NW? Our current plan is to leave OKC for Dallas tomorrow, and then take I-20 to I-49 down to I-10 to position from there. Are there any sections of highway they tend to close off specifically?

[Uncle Bobby]

Any suggestions coming from the NW? Our current plan is to leave OKC for Dallas tomorrow, and then take I-20 to I-49 down to I-10 to position from there. Are there any sections of highway they tend to close off specifically?

I was pondering this yesterday. I'd imagine that you could have problems with interstates being in contra-flow, but I'd also bet you can use US/state highways, or even county roads if necessary. You using GPS?

[Connor McCrorey]

I was pondering this yesterday. I'd imagine that you could have problems with interstates being in contra-flow, but I'd also bet you can use US/state highways, or even county roads if necessary. You using GPS?

Yep, I'll have all of my usual chase equipment with me, GPS and all. My only 'cane intercept so far, Irene, made it pretty easy. I've never seen I-40 so clear as in the eastern part of North Carolina last year, but I have a feeling Isaac won't be making it so easy...

[turtlehurricane]

I found this excellent map of Gulf coast topography. If I chase my strategy will be to stay on the high ground, so I'd prefer Mississippi and east since I can get pretty close to the coast and still be ok. Louisiana is still doable if I stay north of Lake Pontchartrain but that's less exciting. Going to have to make up my mind soon.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Hope your flight went well!

[LocoAko]

Good luck Josh! Stay safe as always.

Any suggestions coming from the NW? Our current plan is to leave OKC for Dallas tomorrow, and then take I-20 to I-49 down to I-10 to position from there. Are there any sections of highway they tend to close off specifically?

Good luck to you, too. We are still debating whether we should attempt to chase or not. This is definitely my best chance yet to intercept an actual hurricane, but dealing with evacuations/contraflow etc. as well as targeting the location in advance is pretty stressful. Plus if the GFS were to be right and it slows to a crawl along the LA coast it may be difficult to leave the area afterward. Decisions, decisions!

[Allsnow]

Good luck! Did josh chase katrina in 05? Would have been a great resource, if i knew about weather boards back then.

[Uncle Bobby]

Josh is kicking himself now for not going to Key West. He missed bendy things!

I'd love to hear back from (cousin) Michele in Marathon. With reported wave heights of 21 feet and her saying they are at an elevation of 4 feet, I'm wondering how interesting that was.

[Ian]

Josh is kicking himself now for not going to Key West. He missed bendy things!

I'd love to hear back from (cousin) Michele in Marathon. With reported wave heights of 21 feet and her saying they are at an elevation of 4 feet, I'm wondering how interesting that was.

No question he made the right decision to skip the Keys unless he just likes being in the rain.

[Avdave]

No question he made the right decision to skip the Keys unless he just likes being in the rain.

agreed!!

[Kennethb]

Any suggestions coming from the NW? Our current plan is to leave OKC for Dallas tomorrow, and then take I-20 to I-49 down to I-10 to position from there. Are there any sections of highway they tend to close off specifically?

Connor: Sorry I missed this response. If you are coming to Louisiana, Hwy 90 is about as far south as you can probably get. That would be Morgan City, Houma, New Orleans. You could probably get down Hwy 1 to Golden Meadow.

As of right now and tonight your could get to Venice (Hwy 23) south of New Orleans, Grand Isle (Hwy 1) and Cocodrie (Hwy 57).

If/when mandatory evacuations are issued, these roads and others south of Hwy 90 may be closed.

Venice, Grand Isle, and Cocodrie would be good places to ride the storm if you could find someone who is staying there, though storm surge could ruin your vehicle.

In Lafayette Interstate 49 meets up with Interstate 10. If you interested in Morgan City, Houma, and New Orleans, you may want to stay south on Interstate 49 which will end in Layayette and turn into Hwy 90.

If you want to go to Slidell, New Orleans, Biloxi, obviously in Lafayette take I-10 east to Baton Rouge. If you want to go to Slidell or Biloxi area, in Baton Rouge take I-12 east and avoid New Orleans.

If Isaac takes the more west/GFS run and New Orleans looks more ominous for impacts, contra flow out of the city could occur Monday at which you might encounter some major traffic jams east of Baton Rouge.

Kenneth

Good Luck.

[3monkeymom]

Contraflow in LA will affect I-55 for sure, and almost certainly 1-12 and I-59 as well. Traffic on state roads will be heavy, but I expect most to be open.

The problem you may run into heading south on the back roads is local law enforcement. That shouldn't be a problem if you're sticking to higher ground north of Lake Ponchartrain, but if you try to head south from there or from New Orleans,, they'll likely try to stonewall you. And there won't really be much chance of getting around them easily because there's a limited number of routes you can take from the lake to all points south. The few that aren't in contraflow will probably have a heavy law enforcement presence secondary to any evacuations that have been ordered.

[Ed Lizard]

^^ Surge made it North of LA 14 during Rita. From a Louisiana friend with a fishing camp, Cocodrie flooded. And I wouldn't want to be on either side of Bayou Lafourche (speaking of LA 1) in a major landfall nearby.

Old Highway 90 (before they built the levated section around Morgan City) would flood during Spring snow melt season, so anywhere near Morgan City would be bad.

For a storm one was confident would be no worse than a Cat1 or Cat 2, obviosuly, further South would be ok. Maybe Leeville or Golden Meadow. I know, from people i worked with, cars in the Shell Heliport in Venice were flooded and ruined in Cat 1 Danny, so there is a limit how far South one can get even in a Cat 1.

[Ellinwood]

Good luck down there, Josh... looks like you'll have a lot more company with this one!

[eekuasepinniW]

No question he made the right decision to skip the Keys unless he just likes being in the rain.

Duval street never even flooded and it looks like just over an inch of rain, so this ended up being less disruptive than the cold front that greeted me last time I went there.

The zone forecast this morning said 55-75mph with gusts to 90. Didn't even get sustained tropical storm force winds.

[Kennethb]

^{Conner, Josh and others traveling tonight. WWL 87 am out of New Orleans is great for hurricane information. It is one of those am stations what has long range at night.}

^{It has a lesser range during the day.}

[Avdave]

Duval street never even flooded and it looks like just over an inch of rain, so this ended up being less disruptive than the cold front that greeted me last time I went there.

The zone forecast this morning said 55-75mph with gusts to 90. Didn't even get sustained tropical storm force winds.

I was wondering about that too, Looking at different highway cameras and EYW area cams, it didnt look bad at all, that derecho up here in June looked worse. Media over hyping again

[nwohweather]

^{Conner, Josh and others traveling tonight. WWL 87 am out of New Orleans is great for hurricane information. It is one of those am stations what has long range at night.}

^{It has a lesser range during the day.}

Well of course. The reflection characteristics are better at night without sun in the ionosphere. That's why AM radio waves can go thousands of miles at night with the right signal

[Connor McCrorey]

^{Conner, Josh and others traveling tonight. WWL 87 am out of New Orleans is great for hurricane information. It is one of those am stations what has long range at night.}

^{It has a lesser range during the day.}

Saw your last post as well, I've just been a bit busy to reply much tonight. Thanks a ton!

[HurricaneJosh]

^{Conner, Josh and others traveling tonight. WWL 87 am out of New Orleans is great for hurricane information. It is one of those am stations what has long range at night.}

^{It has a lesser range during the day.}

Hey, Kenneth-- thanks so much for the information. I really appreciate it.

And, once again, I have to give a collective thanks to everyone in the thread who's offered well-wishes-- I am too fried after 15 hours of traveling to mind my manners.

[HurricaneJosh]

Status: I'm in a hotel lobby in Mississippi, taking a breather, trying to decide next steps and where I'm going from here. (This is not a plea for advice-- Scott and I have exhausted the pros and cons of each of four possible locations. The level of microanalysis has become borderline OCD. )

Scott and I have been on the phone all night. Given 1) the model spread, 2) the complexities of the coastline around SE LA, and 3) New Orleans Metro and its recent history with hurricanes, this is one of the most complicated chase setups I can remember tackling. There are so many variables, it literally gives me a headache thinking about them.

The models trending W and the reformation of the center to the N give contradictory signals that further complicate the picture.

I think I just need to sleep.

[wxmeddler]

Status: I'm in a hotel lobby in Mississippi, taking a breather, trying to decide next steps.

Scott and I have been on the phone all night. Given 1) the model spread, 2) the complexities of the coastline around SE LA, and 3) New Orleans Metro and its recent history with hurricanes, this is one of the most complicated chase setups I can remember tackling. There are so many variables, it literally gives me a headache thinking about them.

The models trending W and the reformation of the center to the N give contradictory signals that further complicate the picture.

I think I just need to sleep.

Sleep is always good! I sent you a Facebook message regarding what you sent me on Sat.

[Dsnowx53]

Good luck, Josh!

[Ed Lizard]

Good luck Josh.

I think this thing probably not making it to major status may actually increase your options assuming it is Louisiana. If you want a Cat 4 you want to be in Florida, I'd think. Louisiana- isolated rural roads in swampy country at low elevation.

Probably in italics, it hasn't made hurricane force yet, but there is still a range in model intensities.

6Z GFS still comes close. I'm assuming WeatherBell's Dr. Maue is a glass full optimist, to give 900 mb winds, assuming his model web page will be used for many 910 mb storms in the future.

[H2O]

Isn't this a fun hobby, Josh? Clearly all you can hope for right now is just one back to back run of consistency to get a better idea as to where to go. I hope the location of landfall becomes more obvious soon so that you can quickly figure out the best spot to try and get to. Good luck.

[Turtle]

Josh, my friend!

Just got home from work (yep on the mids).

GOOD LUCK with this chase, and please be careful!!! I know the video will be great!

--Turtle

[mempho]

Josh, I assume that you have media credentials or something to get around the cops. They have no problem throwing yiu in jail in Baldwin and Escambia Counties. Personal experience with that.

Sent from my Milestone X 2