Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Says the guy that PM's me links to his blog. I'm sure he's downplaying it. You know, drought begets drought. I did look earlier this week and looks like he whiffed on his cat 3-4 call. http://blogs.wlfi.com/2012/08/29/64127/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 1-3" and some wind.. You called it! I figured he would go with spotty showers at best. And 100º+ temps through Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 http://blogs.wlfi.co...12/08/29/64127/ The first paragraph is the lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Crazy pics coming out of Louisiana...houses almost entirely submerged. Shows what having a large wind field can do even if maximum winds aren't that intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 But doesn't H5 just scream for this to get sheared off to the east, considering that block north of Isaac? Not until it is inline with Detroit, from then on it looks like it would shear out. That block is pretty far East and doesn't drop in until late Sunday. All it will do is probably shaft your area and points NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The 12z Euro came in wetter and a bit NW for places into MO but completely dies once in crosses into IL. Dumps on northern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 A large number of the GFS 12z Ensembles came back N and W for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 A large number of the GFS 12z Ensembles came back N and W for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/tcqpf.php?sname=Isaac hpc going with 6-10" over a large area?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The 12z Euro came in wetter and a bit NW for places into MO but completely dies once in crosses into IL. Dumps on northern MO. Completely dies? Hmm, the 12z Euro on wunderground has good rains for IL. http://www.hpc.ncep....php?sname=Isaac hpc going with 6-10" over a large area?!? Bullish. Very bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/tcqpf.php?sname=Isaac hpc going with 6-10" over a large area?!? Save worthy epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Save worthy epic Truth. 8-10" for LAF. Buh bye drought, hello sandbags...if that somehow verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Save worthy epic Ya not something you see a lot of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 For southern Illinois. Really weakens after that compared to the other models. I must be looking at a different 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 A lot of those ensembles look good for northern IL. I think will see quite a bit of flash flooding over central IL and areas where the ground is rock hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Truth. 8-10" for LAF. Buh bye drought, hello sandbags...if that somehow verifies. Mad runoff if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 One thing I have learned over the years - keep a very close eye on tropical remnants - even late into the night and early morning hours. We have had events in this region that produced 7-10" of rain in a matter of 3-4 hours. This from slow moving tropical rain producing cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 As far as moisture, it probably doesn't help that this thing will have been over land for a few days by the time it gets here, but I'm just not sure how much of a negative factor that will be. Consider the source region for this event. I'm not sure what the rainfall distribution will be like (typically it tends to shift toward the northern side of the track this far inland but maybe not in this case) but I'd bet on heavy swaths if rain even if it's not as uniform as the HPC graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 One thing I have learned over the years - keep a very close eye on tropical remnants - even late into the night and early morning hours. We have had events in this region that produced 7-10" of rain in a matter of 3-4 hours. This from slow moving tropical rain producing cells. Yeah, it seems like near the center is often the area to watch after dark. Can get some torrential rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 The 12z Euro has 2-4" for most of central/southern IL. One thing to keep in mind when coming up with amounts is that the precip process will be very efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The current HPC forecast compared to Gustav - which is one of the Analog storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The 12z Euro has 2-4" for most of central/southern IL. One thing to keep in mind when coming up with amounts is that the precip process will be very efficient. This and as Beau noted with remnant systems they tend to be very efficient. Which brings to mind, how many tropical system remnants over perform vs under perform for this region. Climo and past events lead way more toward over performing vs under performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 This and as Beau noted with remnant systems they tend to be very efficient. Which brings to mind, how many tropical system remnants over perform vs under perform for this region. Climo and past events lead way more toward over performing vs under performing. It would be interesting to see how remnant systems have performed relative to models over the years. There's just not a ton of systems to go by...this isn't like tracking a winter storm or something that happens multiple times per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 18z GFS came NW again but this time in weakens it quicker as it moves northeast. Best rains from nrn/ne MO into western IL/southeast IA and into nrn IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 18z GFS came NW again but this time in weakens it quicker as it moves northeast. Best rains from nrn/ne MO into western IL/southeast IA and into nrn IL. The 18Z and 06Z GFS runs have been doing that for a while now...only to see the 00Z and 12Z runs correct back to the southeast. HPC forecast seems a little bullish but they are some of the vest forecasters around so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 The 18Z and 06Z GFS runs have been doing that for a while now...only to see the 00Z and 12Z runs correct back to the southeast. HPC forecast seems a little bullish but they are some of the vest forecasters around so we will see. Doing a search of storms in the past 50 years, I can't find many examples of a storm producing the kind of widespread heavy/excessive amounts that the HPC graphic is showing. Carla and Frederic come close but different areas affected. It does seem to be uncommon and I was a bit surprised to see them being so bullish this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 Carla Frederic Edit: After further checking, I'm not sure how accurate these maps are. I'm finding discrepancies with more recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 HPC QPF discussion for days 2 and 3, which takes us through 0z Sunday. A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PATH OF ISAAC AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS WHILE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 3/SAT...AND LIKELY BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE APPALACHIANS. TO ARRIVE AT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS...USED THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL AND TROPICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BEST ALIGNED WITH THE TRACK AS A BASELINE...THEN ADJUSTED THE AMOUNTS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW QPF BIASES RESULTING FROM INADEQUATE SPATIAL/VERTICAL RESOLUTION...TROPICAL OR WARM-RAIN PROCESSES NOT ADEQUATELY PARAMETERIZED WITHIN THE MODELS...AND NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT THAT OFTEN OCCURS AS SYSTEMS CONSOLIDATE AT NIGHT. THE FINAL DAY 2 TOTALS...ENDING 00Z SATURDAY...ARE SIMILAR TO THE NAMCONUSNEST AND HURRICANE WRF-ISSAC RUNS...THEN SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TRACK. HOWEVER...EVEN THESE TOTALS MAY BE UNDERDONE. THE TOTALS FOR DAY 3...ENDING 00Z SUNDAY...WERE MORE DIFFICULT TO ARRIVE AT GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WERE REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK TO USE AS A PARTIAL GUIDE...BUT AGAIN THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS. ADDITIONAL FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER QPF FOR DAY 3 INCLUDE INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH FACILITATES ELONGATION OF A ZONE OF LOWER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF ISSAC AND DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF DEEP PW AIR THAT ASCENDS WITHIN THIS ZONE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE ON DAY 2...BUT THEN DECREASES TO LESS THEN AVERAGE ON DAY 3 AS THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WIDENS. Day 3 map below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Uhhhh.. What? Figure of speech Beast, not the results of both tropical systems. Cut and dried=easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Figure of speech Beast, not the results of both tropical systems. Cut and dried=easy forecast. D'oh My bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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