hm8 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Isaac taking its sweet ol' time to start moving up here probably isn't going to help the rainfall potential further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 0z Euro following GFS/GGEM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 0z Euro following GFS/GGEM as well. Where do the heaviest rains set up??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Meh....this thing is definitely stuck..The eye wall looks to be re-developing or at least trying to. It's stationary as of now. On top of that, the storm is battling tons of dry air to the north, and no steering currents...that Big high pressure to the North is literally keeping this storm right along the gulf...IDK...we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 06Z GFS shows amazing cutoff around I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 H5 plots really tell the story. Main belt of westerlies are from the Pacific through central Canada with something of a rex block between Isaac and the pacific jet. If this was a month later, climo may have helped out by sending that jet south and allowing some type of phasing. As it is though, probably tough to get anything impressive north of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Talk about a drought buster for central Illinois and central Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Talk about a drought buster for central Illinois and central Indiana... Definitely looking good for that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 0z GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It's looking like southern Wisconsin will miss out on the rain this weekend. Also seems like we may be entering another pretty long stretch of dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 0z GFS ensembles. When every ensemble shows it missing.... It's going to miss. Looks like a solid 3 weeks of barely a drop for my localization. I'm basing this on going 2 weeks already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 When every ensemble shows it missing.... It's going to miss. Looks like a solid 3 weeks of barely a drop for my localization. I'm basing this on going 2 weeks already. Some of those ensembles are not a miss north of I-80. These maps are only for one time frame. I'm going with Stebo's prediction. Should be a good bet with the low moving west still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Comparing the 0z GFS ensemble mean 120 hour QPF to the 6z ensemble mean. Alas, much too early to claim victory or defeat for anyone IMO. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 and we're back north with 12z....consistency still favors I80 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 and we're back north with 12z....consistency still favors I80 south. even up to 88 does very good that run, tough forecast for sure and will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 even up to 88 does very good that run, tough forecast for sure and will be fun to watch. LOT mentioned that in the process of losing some of it's tropical characteristics, the precip associated with the low may become more widespread....the hyper concentrated qpf bombs this far north might be a little overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 LOT mentioned that in the process of losing some of it's tropical characteristics, the precip associated with the low may become more widespread....the hyper concentrated qpf bombs this far north might be a little overdone. I'm noticing winds will be from the NE - wonder if lake enhancement will be possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looking at the black and whites from the 12z GGEM and it looks ridiculous with a bullseye of 101mm pretty close to LAF at 96 hours. Yeah, that's 3.98". Of course, that's just between hour 84 and 96 to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm noticing winds will be from the NE - wonder if lake enhancement will be possible? doubt it, should be a rather warm low and the lake isn't all that bath watery anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looking at the black and whites from the 12z GGEM and it looks ridiculous with a bullseye of 101mm pretty close to LAF at 96 hours. Yeah, that's 3.98". Of course, that's just between hour 84 and 96 to boot. The canadian solution is one of the more realitic looking IMO...obviously bullseye amounts are probably overdone, but the way it organizes the precip shield looks very believeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The canadian solution is one of the more realitic looking IMO...obviously bullseye amounts are probably overdone, but the way it organizes the precip shield looks very believeable. I could buy into the GGEM solution, the 00z/06z GFS tries to turn this thing E too fast considering it would be running into the ridge that is moving slowly Eastward. The 12z GFS is a better solution, though I think it will be moving more ENE or NE vs due E as the prevailing Westerlies don't drop in until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I could buy into the GGEM solution, the 00z/06z GFS tries to turn this thing E too fast considering it would be running into the ridge that is moving slowly Eastward. The 12z GFS is a better solution, though I think it will be moving more ENE or NE vs due E as the prevailing Westerlies don't drop in until Sunday. 12z GFS ensembles came north as well, including one with a qpf bomb over S. WI and some still well south. We might start seeing more consistency once Isaac finally starts gaining some momentum out of the gulf....that was an impressive stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 12z GFS ensembles came north as well, including one with a qpf bomb over S. WI and some still well south. We might start seeing more consistency once Isaac finally starts gaining some momentum out of the gulf....that was an impressive stall. Yeah, though the GFS had shown this thing coming to a crawl down there for at least 12 hours but now that it is moving the solutions we are seeing should become clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Well this is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 12z GFS ensembles came north as well, including one with a qpf bomb over S. WI and some still well south. We might start seeing more consistency once Isaac finally starts gaining some momentum out of the gulf....that was an impressive stall. You aren't kidding, this thing is still in no real hurry to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I could buy into the GGEM solution, the 00z/06z GFS tries to turn this thing E too fast considering it would be running into the ridge that is moving slowly Eastward. The 12z GFS is a better solution, though I think it will be moving more ENE or NE vs due E as the prevailing Westerlies don't drop in until Sunday. But doesn't H5 just scream for this to get sheared off to the east, considering that block north of Isaac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 I agree with you guys...will be nice to get this farther inland and moving (in terms of model solutions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looking at the black and whites from the 12z GGEM and it looks ridiculous with a bullseye of 101mm pretty close to LAF at 96 hours. Yeah, that's 3.98". Of course, that's just between hour 84 and 96 to boot. I wonder what your boy Chad is going with. Will have to check it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I wonder what your boy Chad is going with. Will have to check it out... Says the guy that PM's me links to his blog. I'm sure he's downplaying it. You know, drought begets drought. I did look earlier this week and looks like he whiffed on his cat 3-4 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Says the guy that PM's me links to his blog. I'm sure he's downplaying it. You know, drought begets drought. I did look earlier this week and looks like he whiffed on his cat 3-4 call. 1-3" and some wind.. You called it, definitely downplaying it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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