Jonger Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Actually the post stating that a specific area is missing out on something 4 1/2 days out is completely unnecessary especially knowing it is a fluid situation with this. In mostly commenting on the trend. It's been moving the system south over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 That looks like a pretty good track to me for a soaking rain in the LL. If I was south of I-70 I'd be worried about the threat of little rain amounts. Like someone mentioned earlier - the heavier rains shift to the north and west side of the low as it moves over land. I'm going to say 2-5" amounts will be common somewhere in the subforum area this weekend. Still a lot of details to iron out between now and the weekend on where the heaviest rains set up. - Stebo, I think your analysis will be on target or darn close regarding a N/W trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 In mostly commenting on the trend. It's been moving the system south over the last few runs. 00z never came in, 06z and 12z were the same so not really... Plus a large number of the GFS ensembles are actually further North and West with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Brandon Redmond's call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looks like you guys will get your drought buster. Hopefully it stays on course for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 00z never came in, 06z and 12z were the same so not really... Plus a large number of the GFS ensembles are actually further North and West with the track. 00z did come in eventually. I think it had more of a southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 HPC's map looks pretty good right now to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 HPC's map looks pretty good right now to me. I'd say it is a touch S and E of my current ideas, but the scope and amounts are pretty close to what I could see occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It is encouraging to see Isaac currently moving W/WNW and making very little northward progress. The big question for us in the Great Lakes is at what point does it start to shift eastward from its expected northerly progress. Like Jonger, I fully expect to be screwed, I have yet to see one good run of the OP GFS or the Euro really until 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It is encouraging to see Isaac currently moving W/WNW and making very little northward progress. The big question for us in the Great Lakes is at what point does it start to shift eastward from its expected northerly progress. Like Jonger, I fully expect to be screwed, I have yet to see one good run of the OP GFS or the Euro really until 12z. Your area is a bit far to the North and West, so I wouldn't be shocked if your area was shut out. The system will be moving SW-NE and eventually W-E. Unless it gets up to say SE Iowa you probably will miss out on most if not all of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Your area is a bit far to the North and West, so I wouldn't be shocked if your area was shut out. The system will be moving SW-NE and eventually W-E. Unless it gets up to say SE Iowa you probably will miss out on most if not all of this one. Getting it up to Iowa sure is the goal right now. It seems like no matter how far the models are showing Isaac going west initially, they still turn east before it gets to Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Getting it up to Iowa sure is the goal right now. It seems like no matter how far the models are showing Isaac going west initially, they still turn east before it gets to Iowa. That's climo pretty much. LOT mentioned 17 remnant storms have passed within 100 miles since 1898 and they are usually moving east or northeast by then. I wouldn't be surprised if the number is lower for Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I know Milwaukee missed a lot of the heavy rain from Lowell/Ike in September of 2008 (1-2" from the map posted back a couple pages), but just 50 miles south there was 4"+. The IL/WI border seems to be a sort of northward barrier for tropical remnants. - Unless a separate storm system can tug on it and entrain some of its moisture. Looks like Issac is moving almost due west right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Damn.. Michigan misses out.. Another 2 weeks of nothing. I got less then a hundredth of an inch the other night. Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 This area probably won't get any of the widespread/heavy stuff folks want as it'll be weakening (which is actually a good thing for areas that have been flooded out recently), but the tropical moisture and what's left of Isaac will eventually get here. I'm certainly not expecting severe weather either with the lack of shear and the warm cloud depths, but wet microbursts (which can drop a lot of water fasts) are certainly a possibility. In any event, here's some interesting observations I found out of New Orleans... KNEW 290153Z 04040G58KT 3/4SM -SN BKN018 OVC023 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 04058/0145 SLP947 P0045 FZRANO KNEW 290053Z 03041G52KT 3/4SM -SN BKN024 BKN028 OVC035 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 03057/0006 SNB17 SLP951 P0025 FZRAN I'm also noticing a lot of people are mentioning Ike in this thread. That one was really a different animal, as it phased with a fairly strong northern stream shortwave. Isaac on the other hand looks to be cut off completely from the northern stream, at least as things stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That's climo pretty much. LOT mentioned 17 remnant storms have passed within 100 miles since 1898 and they are usually moving east or northeast by then. I wouldn't be surprised if the number is lower for Milwaukee. Yep, really the only weather event we do well with are winter storms, luckily (knock on wood). A 6" storm is almost inevitable every year, even last year, although that's for another thread. I know we don't do well with tropical cyclone remnants, but I was hoping it would happen once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yep, really the only weather event we do well with are winter storms, luckily (knock on wood). A 6" storm is almost inevitable every year, even last year, although that's for another thread. I know we don't do well with tropical cyclone remnants, but I was hoping it would happen once. No argument there! Skilling showed the low on the RPM going up to Keokuk, IA before heading more ENE towards LAF. Heaviest rain from my neck of the woods - south. Looked like in excess of 3" for Chicago. I think for Milwaukee to get significant rain it would take a low tracking up to the Quad Cities to get the rain shield to your latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 No argument there! Skilling showed the low on the RPM going up to Keokuk, IA before heading more ENE towards LAF. Heaviest rain from my neck of the woods - south. Looked like in excess of 3" for Chicago. I think for Milwaukee to get significant rain it would take a low tracking up to the Quad Cities to get the rain shield to your latitude. Yeah, the almighty DGEX was that solution, but given it's the only one I've seen so far with the low getting well into Iowa, it is probably well off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Is the NAM on something or might this model be legit - taking the low center west through 42 hours and making landfall south of Lake Charles! Even wanders it over to Port Arthur, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 If the NAM on something or might this model be legit - taking the low center west through 42 hours and making landfall south of Lake Charles! Even wanders it over to Port Arthur, TX. It looks like it should hug the coast for many hours yet. Whether it's as long as that, who knows. I think we're pretty much in nowcast mode. Wild storm for Louisiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The eye actually looks to be moving a tad south of west, so I can believe some of these models that have it landfalling in SW Louisiana and moving it to East Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 The 00z GFS appears to be pulling the same routine as last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The 00z GFS appears to be pulling the same routine as last night... Yep...another freeze. Something has to be going on. Someone over at NOAA needs to check it out. Maybe Isaac has overloaded the system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The fact that Isaac is deviating from many of the forecast movements this evening does little to inspire confidence on what happens later this week. Nailing the final track of the remnants will probably end up proving more difficult than many of our winter storms in the end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 GFS rolling in now. Low is just west of St Louis at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 GFS rolling in now. Low is just west of St Louis at 96 hours. Link? NCEP site still not working. Sounds like GFS is slowing things down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link? NCEP site still not working. Sounds like GFS is slowing things down... I'm using Plymouth. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Twisterdata is working well too Patrick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm using Plymouth. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Looks to pound LAF pretty nicely. North of I-80 gets the shaft. Back and forth we go. EDIT: My gut feeling is we won't see anything from this here. It usually takes a fast moving system to impact areas this far northwest. The slow movement of this storm will give the trough more time to sweep in and eject it eastward. Indiana and Ohio are much more favored considering climo as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 00z GEM keeps rains much further south/southeast as well compared to its 12z run. Rains only get up to about Springfield IL, and LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm worried here in Ohio about the tight pressure gradient with the ridge of high pressure behind it. Could get some big winds in addition to tons of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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