Chicago WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Nice swath of 3-5" for a decent area of IL. Bit of a disappointment for the majority of IN, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Some of the GFS runs would get portions of Cook Co close to normal for the year and well above for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 If this type of solution verifies I will drive to the Wisconsin Illinois border to see the heavy rain if timing stays on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Some of the GFS runs would get portions of Cook Co close to normal for the year and well above for the summer. pretty crazy after how dry it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Funny, so many Labor day wekends I remember it to be raining. Looks like Issac will help continue my memories if the path holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 pretty crazy after how dry it was. It's nice not to be talking about 1988 anymore that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It's nice not to be talking about 1988 anymore that's for sure. I'll second that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It's nice not to be talking about 1988 anymore that's for sure. I'll second that! Agreed, btw it is nice to see the Euro coming along to the GFS camp. Also a large agreement amongst the GFS and the GFS ensembles. Still a tricky forecast but the confidence is pretty high that along and just north of the I-80 corridor will be pounded with some heavy drought busting rains. Also Missouri is going to get a large share of this and they really need it. Lastly anything to dent the drought now bodes well for the winter and snow prospects. All and all this is a very positive event that is forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Agreed, btw it is nice to see the Euro coming along to the GFS camp. Also a large agreement amongst the GFS and the GFS ensembles. Still a tricky forecast but the confidence is pretty high that along and just north of the I-80 corridor will be pounded with some heavy drought busting rains. Also Missouri is going to get a large share of this and they really need it. Lastly anything to dent the drought now bodes well for the winter and snow prospects. All and all this is a very positive event that is forthcoming. Stebo FTW :thumbsup: I would disagree, typically with these tropical systems the mid latitude troughs eject slower, which would tend to lead more credence to a further N and W solution. The GFS ensembles coming in more N and W is a bit of a tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Nice swath of 3-5" for a decent area of IL. Bit of a disappointment for the majority of IN, relatively speaking. Well, still a ways out so maybe it can shift back. Been watching the severe potential as well. Tough to diagnose at this point but would think at least a low end tornado threat given the shear profiles. Here is a forecast sounding for LAF valid 00z Sunday (the only one I will post given the timeframe ). Mid level lapse rates are pretty terrible as would be expected in this type of environment but if we could realize some heating then maybe it gets a little interesting. I've seen little more than glorified showers produce a quick spinup in these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Euro has come around? Not really. The track is irrrevelant. The amont of mositure is the problem. I don't buy it. For a tropical system to sit that long over land, it would dissolve quickly. More likely, the GFS will cut back precip totals a good deal. 1988 wasn't dry in the summer at all after June. LOT has a great writeup....4-5" is probably overdone but there is definitely climatological support for 2"+ and given enhanced frontal pooling and slow movement, I think a legit heavy rain event is likely for someone in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Hopefully it pans out with the most western track possible(for Kansas and Nebraska and food prices). probably too late for that...maybe you're talking about winter wheat or something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Euro has come around? Not really. The track is irrrevelant. The amont of mositure is the problem. I don't buy it. For a tropical system to sit that long over land, it would dissolve quickly. More likely, the GFS will cut back precip totals a good deal. 1988 wasn't dry in the summer at all after June. I've been wondering this. Missouri/Western Illinois is where good rain chances go to die this year. I could see that being the case with Isaac as well. It's very hard to over come drought conditions and I just have a feeling the models are way over doing it on precip totals. This thing is going to be a slow mover over land have a lot of time to rain itself out. I hope I'm wrong because we need it in the worst way but I'm trying to keep my hopes a bit tempered for now. The local TV mets are going crazy though, which is typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I've been wondering this. Missouri/Western Illinois is where good rain chances go to die this year. I could see that being the case with Isaac as well. It's very hard to over come drought conditions and I just have a feeling the models are way over doing it on precip totals. This thing is going to be a slow mover over land have a lot of time to rain itself out. I hope I'm wrong because we need it in the worst way but I'm trying to keep my hopes a bit tempered for now. The local TV mets are going crazy though, which is typical. It's going to take a while to dry out a tropical low....pwats on the GFS are 2.4-2.5" into western Illinois....that's a long ways from rained out. If there's one way to overcome drought feedback issues, it's slow moving tropical remnants...that said you'll still have potential track issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 ding ding ding...will it have anything left when its sitting over Chicago? Maybe Saukville's bananas will feel like they are in the Domican when the tropical rains come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Euro has come around? Not really. The track is irrrevelant. The amont of mositure is the problem. I don't buy it. For a tropical system to sit that long over land, it would dissolve quickly. More likely, the GFS will cut back precip totals a good deal. 1988 wasn't dry in the summer at all after June. With the amount of moisture expected to move up with this thing I have a hard time buying that the low will evaporate into nothing. Track isn't irrelevant either, how many tropical systems just vanish into nothing in a few days? Not too many. I think you are grasping at straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 IND AFD portion regarding Isaac. I'll side with them. WITH THE GROWING CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM ISAAC HERE IN CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HAVE INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES PROGGED AT 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES...OR NEARLY 200% OF NORMAL VALUES. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 15KFT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND SUPPORTIVE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS FAVORING A TRACK EITHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION. ANALYSIS OF MODEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ROTATE AND COULD SEE A FEW QUICK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES OVER THE REGION. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND FOR THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...THE ESF PRODUCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 This thing looks about as good as its ever looked right now. Think we could see strengthening through landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Damn.. Michigan misses out.. Another 2 weeks of nothing. I got less then a hundredth of an inch the other night. Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The combination of the remnant tropical circulation and the pooling of moisture along and ahead of the incoming trough should help keep rainfall totals pretty impressive IMO. I would expect a nice swath of 2-4" of rain with isolated higher amounts. The little system last weekend was good enough to drop isolated 8" rains in parts of Iowa. I don't think 4"+ would be too hard to achieve with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Damn.. Michigan misses out.. Another 2 weeks of nothing. I got less then a hundredth of an inch the other night. Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 lol. Its 4 and a half days away and you're already whining about it not raining in your BY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 They don't evaporate into nothing, but they do becomes weaker. I just have a problem buying this thing is going hit the Ohio Valley and then just surge with moisture. It interacts with a frontal boundary, it won't be purely the remnants of Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Damn.. Michigan misses out.. Another 2 weeks of nothing. I got less then a hundredth of an inch the other night. Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 The models will waver a bit back and forth, I think the 18z is a bit too aggressive with a backdoor cold front that tries to nose into the area keeping the rain South of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 lol. Its 4 and a half days away and you're already whining about it not raining in your BY This post is totally unnecessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Damn.. Michigan misses out.. Another 2 weeks of nothing. I got less then a hundredth of an inch the other night. Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 You might be one of the only places in the region that didn't get much the other night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This post is totally unnecessary Actually the post stating that a specific area is missing out on something 4 1/2 days out is completely unnecessary especially knowing it is a fluid situation with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 18z GFS shifted south somewhat. Heaviest rain axis sets up just on the nose of the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Actually the post stating that a specific area is missing out on something 4 1/2 days out is completely unnecessary especially knowing it is a fluid situation with this. I agree. I have a problem with someone that brings nothing to the thread except to bash another poster. This is a site of weather enthusiasts. I respected your post you came and told him that the models will waffle back and forth. That was the correct way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I agree. I have a problem with someone that brings nothing to the thread except to bash another poster. This is a site of weather enthusiasts. I respected your post you came and told him that the models will waffle back and forth. That was the correct way. But hm8 brings plenty to the threads. Its not a drive by insult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Fwiw I actually typed out some reasoning but I was on my phone and it didn't send the first time I didn't type it out again. Not bringing anything helpful besides bashing (deserved though it may be) is a legitimate complaint and I apologize for it. That all being said, I think the 12z GFS seems very reasonable in terms of track. This morning's HPC map is probably the southern end of the possibility spectrum in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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