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Isaac Heavy Rain Event


Hoosier

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Yeah though you don't want it going right over you, just south of you is where you want the low track.

Sure, I was just pointing out that it trended east and I believe that product is experimental and always 12 hrs behind....the euro trending S/E lends some credence to the idea as well. Obviously it's way out there and can come way back, so you know...low confidence.

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Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac.

Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though.

Decision time was tonight...

Decided not to go for various reasons.

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Sure, I was just pointing out that it trended east and I believe that product is experimental and always 12 hrs behind....the euro trending S/E lends some credence to the idea as well. Obviously it's way out there and can come way back, so you know...low confidence.

The Euro's tendency to overdo ridges leads me to take that solution for limited value but like you said it is a ways out there no sense in being nit picky on something 5 days away.

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a best case low end cat 2 probably wouldn't be worth the hassle

Would have been cool to see even with the weaker outcome, but yeah the long trip probably could be better served with a major hurricane.

This system sure seemed to have highly underachieved up to this point, which is a great thing considering where it's gonna make landfall.

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a best case low end cat 2 probably wouldn't be worth the hassle

I actually probably would go if a Cat 2 looked likely, but that doesn't look to be the case.

So what was the top reason? Uncertainty about intensity or crappy terrain in Louisiana?

Intensity. The continued shear/dry air combo has obviously inhibited intensification/organization and that issue looks to continue for at least the short term.

The deep pressure it has for a TS is a plus, but the aforementioned issues and lack of wind response is a killer. Obviously that can change prior to landfall tonight/tomorrow though. At this point i'm going with a Cat. 1...which is not worth the trip in my mind.

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Yeah though you don't want it going right over you, just south of you is where you want the low track.

Not with this one, it's looked like the heavier rain has been consistently modeled on the south and east side of the low pressure, if anything. If what you said were the case, Chicago would still be looking good, but given the trends and the best rain being south and east of the low in many runs, I think the Great Lakes will be doing a ton of praying for the system, but it will likely let us down in the end.

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I actually probably would go if a Cat 2 looked likely, but that doesn't look to be the case.

Intensity. The continued shear/dry air combo has obviously inhibited intensification/organization and that issue looks to continue for at least the short term.

The deep pressure it has for a TS is a plus, but the aforementioned issues and lack of wind response is a killer. Obviously that can change prior to landfall tonight/tomorrow though. At this point i'm going with a Cat. 1...which is not worth the trip in my mind.

Obviously comparing apples to oranges here, but this just goes to show how incredible the surrounding environment must have been for Katrina. It came off the southern coast of Florida and went absolutely ape****. This thing has barely strengthened in the last 24hrs.

No one expected this thing to come even close to something like Katrina, but if you had told me last night this would still be at TS strength this time tonight I would have been pretty surprised.

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A lot of times the heaviest precip shifts from the east side around landfall to the west side as it goes farther inland. There are probably some exceptions but I can't think of one off the top of my head. Wes or someone gave a good explanation as to why it happens...wish I could remember.

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I actually probably would go if a Cat 2 looked likely, but that doesn't look to be the case.

Intensity. The continued shear/dry air combo has obviously inhibited intensification/organization and that issue looks to continue for at least the short term.

The deep pressure it has for a TS is a plus, but the aforementioned issues and lack of wind response is a killer. Obviously that can change prior to landfall tonight/tomorrow though. At this point i'm going with a Cat. 1...which is not worth the trip in my mind.

Yeah it's a gamble. Even with it being very slow to intensify, I keep having this nagging feeling that this could ramp up pretty fast and put a real scare in people tomorrow. Probably just being paranoid.

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I am on the "Model Analysis and Guidance" page, and the GFS has not made it past 54 hours. Anybody else notice this to?

Yeah it seems to have gotten hung up. GFS showing the same track as the last run so far. - right over NO.

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I'm not a fan of hurricane remnants, drought or not.

2007 was very dry around these parts, right up until the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin paid a visit. More than a foot of rain later, this was my hometown of Ottawa, Ohio:

floodsmall.jpg

My office had two feet of water inside.

No, I don't like the remnants of tropical systems. :)

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12z GFS would be good for Missouri, what with almost the entire state under extreme drought conditions...36% of the state under exceptional drought conditions.

totally...run in general looks to be holding tight to the further north/west idea.

prospects for a wash out saturday looking up.

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