A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yeah though you don't want it going right over you, just south of you is where you want the low track. Sure, I was just pointing out that it trended east and I believe that product is experimental and always 12 hrs behind....the euro trending S/E lends some credence to the idea as well. Obviously it's way out there and can come way back, so you know...low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac. Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though. Decision time was tonight... Decided not to go for various reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Decision time was tonight... Decided not to go for various reasons. a best case low end cat 2 probably wouldn't be worth the hassle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Decision time was tonight... Decided not to go for various reasons. So what was the top reason? Uncertainty about intensity or crappy terrain in Louisiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Sure, I was just pointing out that it trended east and I believe that product is experimental and always 12 hrs behind....the euro trending S/E lends some credence to the idea as well. Obviously it's way out there and can come way back, so you know...low confidence. The Euro's tendency to overdo ridges leads me to take that solution for limited value but like you said it is a ways out there no sense in being nit picky on something 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 a best case low end cat 2 probably wouldn't be worth the hassle Would have been cool to see even with the weaker outcome, but yeah the long trip probably could be better served with a major hurricane. This system sure seemed to have highly underachieved up to this point, which is a great thing considering where it's gonna make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 a best case low end cat 2 probably wouldn't be worth the hassle I actually probably would go if a Cat 2 looked likely, but that doesn't look to be the case. So what was the top reason? Uncertainty about intensity or crappy terrain in Louisiana? Intensity. The continued shear/dry air combo has obviously inhibited intensification/organization and that issue looks to continue for at least the short term. The deep pressure it has for a TS is a plus, but the aforementioned issues and lack of wind response is a killer. Obviously that can change prior to landfall tonight/tomorrow though. At this point i'm going with a Cat. 1...which is not worth the trip in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yeah though you don't want it going right over you, just south of you is where you want the low track. Not with this one, it's looked like the heavier rain has been consistently modeled on the south and east side of the low pressure, if anything. If what you said were the case, Chicago would still be looking good, but given the trends and the best rain being south and east of the low in many runs, I think the Great Lakes will be doing a ton of praying for the system, but it will likely let us down in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yeah though you don't want it going right over you, just south of you is where you want the low track. Just north of you if you want to get in on the severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I actually probably would go if a Cat 2 looked likely, but that doesn't look to be the case. Intensity. The continued shear/dry air combo has obviously inhibited intensification/organization and that issue looks to continue for at least the short term. The deep pressure it has for a TS is a plus, but the aforementioned issues and lack of wind response is a killer. Obviously that can change prior to landfall tonight/tomorrow though. At this point i'm going with a Cat. 1...which is not worth the trip in my mind. Obviously comparing apples to oranges here, but this just goes to show how incredible the surrounding environment must have been for Katrina. It came off the southern coast of Florida and went absolutely ape****. This thing has barely strengthened in the last 24hrs. No one expected this thing to come even close to something like Katrina, but if you had told me last night this would still be at TS strength this time tonight I would have been pretty surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 A lot of times the heaviest precip shifts from the east side around landfall to the west side as it goes farther inland. There are probably some exceptions but I can't think of one off the top of my head. Wes or someone gave a good explanation as to why it happens...wish I could remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 I actually probably would go if a Cat 2 looked likely, but that doesn't look to be the case. Intensity. The continued shear/dry air combo has obviously inhibited intensification/organization and that issue looks to continue for at least the short term. The deep pressure it has for a TS is a plus, but the aforementioned issues and lack of wind response is a killer. Obviously that can change prior to landfall tonight/tomorrow though. At this point i'm going with a Cat. 1...which is not worth the trip in my mind. Yeah it's a gamble. Even with it being very slow to intensify, I keep having this nagging feeling that this could ramp up pretty fast and put a real scare in people tomorrow. Probably just being paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I am on the "Model Analysis and Guidance" page, and the GFS has not made it past 54 hours. Anybody else notice this to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I am on the "Model Analysis and Guidance" page, and the GFS has not made it past 54 hours. Anybody else notice this to? Yeah it seems to have gotten hung up. GFS showing the same track as the last run so far. - right over NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I am on the "Model Analysis and Guidance" page, and the GFS has not made it past 54 hours. Anybody else notice this to? Must have broke from the precip amounts in the great lakes going off the color scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 The 00z Euro practically has it scraping the entire coast of Louisiana, a big shift from the previous run. Will be interesting to see what happens down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like the Euro dumps a lot of rain on MO/southeast IA/srn-central IL and into IN through 132hr. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like the Euro dumps a lot of rain on MO/southeast IA/srn-central IL and into IN through 132hr. . Yep...the EURO coming more in line with GFS. Looking LIKELY now that Isaac is going to dump some beneficial rains on the Ohio Valley and potentially the southern Great Lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 00z Euro HOT for many locations thru Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 06z GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F28%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p60&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=150&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The gfs sure is insistent and the euro took a nice step...stebo's call looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This may have been posted over on the main board, but I found this picture of the destruction from the Keys: The latest NHC map has the low directly over LAF at 1 AM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 FWIW LOT did a nice write up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Good to see the Euro shift west. It looks like parts of the eastern plains may pick up some beneficial rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Will do quite a bit to ease the drought in most of the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The low tracks potentially. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=86722&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm not a fan of hurricane remnants, drought or not. 2007 was very dry around these parts, right up until the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin paid a visit. More than a foot of rain later, this was my hometown of Ottawa, Ohio: My office had two feet of water inside. No, I don't like the remnants of tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like Isaac is making that westward jog the GFS is/was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 12z GFS would be good for Missouri, what with almost the entire state under extreme drought conditions...36% of the state under exceptional drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 12z GFS would be good for Missouri, what with almost the entire state under extreme drought conditions...36% of the state under exceptional drought conditions. totally...run in general looks to be holding tight to the further north/west idea. prospects for a wash out saturday looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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