Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Let your tropical weenie out, what's your call for strength upon landfall? And where? I like the Grand Isle, LA area. For landfall intensity, I'll go conservative with 90 mph but would not be surprised if it's stronger (could just as easily see a 100+ mph storm). For all the progress that's been made, intensity forecasting is still pretty tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Isaac really struggles to get north on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I need it to come over my house and spin...i'd like to see epic rains...20+ inches in 24hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 12z Euro says no rain for any of you guys...gets hung up way south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 drought uncancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 A big OUCH on the latest EURO run. Let's hope it's just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Good rains are pretty much OH River southward on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I like how that track looks, the mean track looks to take it right around here, but then again I have yet to even see the GFS place S Wisconsin in a big rain zone, it's always been just to the south, so I'm wondering if this projected path is too far west for what the mean models say. I think the rain placement will depend on where the front hangs up. That tropical moisture is really going to pile up along it! Hopefully the 12z EURO is having a bad run. Edit: we still have lots of runs to go yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Ridge > Huricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Bit of an eastward shift at the end. I wonder how long this thing can maintain tropical characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 IND FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS SOLELY ON ISSAC AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IT COULD BRING TO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. 12Z MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA EAST THROUGH THE MOBILE-PENSACOLA AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT HOWEVER...WIDE VARIANCE REMAINS IN REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHAT TRACK THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC TAKE AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION. AS ISSAC CHURNS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THE REMNANTS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ON ISSAC PAYING THE REGION A VISIT OVER THE WEEKEND. EMPLOYING ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND TIMING HOWEVER REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH SOME NEW CONCERNS BEING INTRODUCED WITH SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. OP GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A LOOPING WESTERN TRACK FROM A CENTRAL LOUISIANA LANDFALL WEDNESDAY AND LIFTING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. GGEM...00Z ECMWF AND NAM REMAIN EAST WITH A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND BILOXI. CURRENT OFFICIAL NHC TRACK RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TRACK. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM BRING ISSAC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND DEPART IT EAST MORE QUICKLY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OP GFS PRESENTS A TROUBLING NEW WRINKLE ON ITS 12Z RUN WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS CURLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT NEVER LINKING UP WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC REMAINING CUTOFF AND SPINNING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO LABOR DAY WHICH COULD OPEN CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOWEVER SHOW THAT THE CUTOFF SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS POINT...AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO MIMIC THE 00Z ECMWF WITH ISSAC PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWLY BUMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD AND KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE REMNANTS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES OR 200% OF NORMAL AND FREEZING LEVELS AT 15-16KFT STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...IF THE EVENTUAL TRACK TAKES ISSAC RIGHT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OR TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES VIA LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF ISSAC CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The GFS is certainly holding it's own. It has been VERY consistent as of late and has done much better in honing in on the track of Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Bring on the northwest shift!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Bring on the northwest shift!! 6z did the same shift earlier today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 SpartyOn Labor Day Weekend Special on the 18Z GFS :thumbsup: :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 SpartyOn Labor Day Weekend Special on the 18Z GFS :thumbsup: :wub: You could not wait to throw this in Sparty's Face... Too bad its only 135 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 A couple of players to watch before this occurs, 1. how strong the ridge is over our area Wed-Friday, 2. where the ridge axis sets up, and 3. how quickly the trough moves Eastward to pick the remnants up. If the ridge is too strong or locks in over the Great Lakes this thing could get locked in South of us and not move up here. If it is weaker and/or locks in just East of the region then Isaac would slide up the backside of the Ridge. If the trough is too quick moving in, it would pick up Isaac too soon and places South of I-70 would get the brunt of it. If the trough is too slow moving in than places South of I-80 and especially I-70 could completely miss out. A lot of variables in play here and things could change several times between now and then. The Euro solution is probably too strong with the ridge in the region which is a tendency the Euro has to over do ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like some of the ensembles have shifted the heaviest precip a bit farther north and west, will be interesting to see if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like some of the ensembles have shifted the heaviest precip a bit farther north and west, will be interesting to see if this holds. Yeah a large number of the 06z/12z ensembles were also further NW than the op, something also to monitor going forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 SpartyOn Labor Day Weekend Special on the 18Z GFS :thumbsup: :wub: The worst post of the entire thread. Yet another WOTY fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like some of the ensembles have shifted the heaviest precip a bit farther north and west, will be interesting to see if this holds. That 3rd one on the top is something else for the I-80/90, 94 corridor.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The worst post of the entire thread. Yet another WOTY fail. lolololololololololol Isaac hopes squashed by the death ridge. Besides, it's hard to cheer for a washout over the labor day weekend. But seriously, enjoy the long weekend Sparty!! Anything fun planned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 SpartyOn Labor Day Weekend Special on the 18Z GFS :thumbsup: :wub: Please verify! This would raise lake Michigan, Huron and Erie like 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Isaac looks to be trending east...I doubt that bodes well for those hoping for N/W solutions....good news for the worst drought stricken areas though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Isaac looks to be trending east...I doubt that bodes well for those hoping for N/W solutions....good news for the worst drought stricken areas though Thinking that might be just a wobble. Maybe Turtle can comment on the current movement. Forecast cone remains unchanged. Set to make landfall just west of the delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Thinking that might be just a wobble. Maybe Turtle can comment on the current movement. Forecast cone remains unchanged. Set to make landfall just west of the delta. i'm not getting too into our chances right now...potential is there but I still favor central Illinois and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Skilling showed the latest GFS (I think) and the low moving to the southern tip of Lake Michigan before making a right turn eastward. Quoting Skilling, "All the models averaged together gives ORD 2.9" of rain from Issac's remnants." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 i'm not getting too into our chances right now...potential is there but I still favor central Illinois and south. I would disagree, typically with these tropical systems the mid latitude troughs eject slower, which would tend to lead more credence to a further N and W solution. The GFS ensembles coming in more N and W is a bit of a tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would disagree, typically with these tropical systems the mid latitude troughs eject slower, which would tend to lead more credence to a further N and W solution. The GFS ensembles coming in more N and W is a bit of a tell. I'll go dig it up but looks to me like they're going east. previous run was further north/west through chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'll go dig it up but looks to me like they're going east. previous run was further north/west through chicago Yeah though you don't want it going right over you, just south of you is where you want the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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