Fickle Heights Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Hoping we can get the beneficial rain without any of the really bad effects like widespread wind damage or heavy flooding. From IND's afternoon AFD: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN SOME FORM OF IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING FELT IN CENTRAL INDIANA...HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN TIMING AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE NAILED DOWN FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIANCE. IF THE EVENTUAL TRACK TAKES ISSAC RIGHT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OR TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES VIA LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ISSAC CLOSELY AND EMPLOY MORE DETAIL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK FORECASTS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yeah, IND has been mentioning the severe threat for the last three discos if it can make it this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Definitely some enhanced low level shear on forecast soundings as Isaac approaches. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 GFS ensembles have been fairly persistent the past few runs with where they landfall Isaac and where they take his remnants. The mean shows a good soaking for a large chunk of this sub-forum, although a shift a bit south would be needed to bring any significant relief to the more extreme drought areas. Plenty of time to sit back and watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Looking at the 18z GFS at 144 hours (twisterdata maps), winds at the 925mb level are still 45-50kts as the circulation moves to the south of Chicago. With the bands of rains going on Saturday - might some gusty winds mix down to the surface!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Looking at the 18z GFS at 144 hours (twisterdata maps), winds at the 925mb level are still 45-50kts as the circulation moves to the south of Chicago. With the bands of rains going on Saturday - might some gusty winds mix down to the surface!? If this solution were to verify, then possibly, although deep moist environment/extensive clouds/precip could keep mixing in check. Ridiculous PWATs on the GFS....in excess of 2.5". Only 6 days to go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Serious rain amounts around here off the 18z, would be like september 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Serious rain amounts around here off the 18z, would be like september 2009. September 2008 (Ike remnants) you mean? But this would be nothing like that one, at its present solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I am really liking the prospects up this way for some big time rains, I also wouldn't sleep on the severe potential either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 September 2008 (Ike remnants) you mean? But this would be nothing like that one, at its present solutions. Actually I think this is a pretty good idea of what could happen. Especially if the PWATs of the GFS are realized. 2.50" PWATs are record territory at this time of the year plus the interaction with the front dropping in should also help squeeze out every bit of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 September 2008 (Ike remnants) you mean? But this would be nothing like that one, at its present solutions. Yeah that was an impressive event. Hard to tell how much rainfall will actually fall in the heaviest swath at this point, but I would imagine a nice swath of 3-4"+ possible at the least. Obviously depends on how slow it moves north/northeast, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Actually I think this is a pretty good idea of what could happen. Especially if the PWATs of the GFS are realized. 2.50" PWATs are record territory at this time of the year plus the interaction with the front dropping in should also help squeeze out every bit of the moisture. September 2003 comes to mind as well. That event featured the wettest day in Indy's history. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=sept03_flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 September 2008 (Ike remnants) you mean? But this would be nothing like that one, at its present solutions. yeah that's what I meant. I don't know what I said 2009. But I think this will have potential to come close to that if some of the current models verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 September 2008 was really wet. From the remnants of Ike and Lowell I got 4.93" of rain. Then there was the remnants of Gustav on the 3-4th. All in all I had 8.81" of rain that month. I think 3-4" of rain from Issac in a corridor would seem reasonable to predict at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Actually I think this is a pretty good idea of what could happen. Especially if the PWATs of the GFS are realized. 2.50" PWATs are record territory at this time of the year plus the interaction with the front dropping in should also help squeeze out every bit of the moisture. yeah that's what I meant. I don't know what I said 2009. But I think this will have potential to come close to that if some of the current models verify. We'll see I guess. Of course the September 2008 event was a combination of parts of the remnants of Tropical Storm Lowell and Hurricane Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 September 2008 was really wet. From the remnants of Ike and Lowell I got 4.93" of rain. Then there was the remnants of Gustav on the 3-4th. All in all I had 8.81" of rain that month. I think 3-4" of rain from Issac in a corridor would seem reasonable to predict at this point. I don't know if I'd be predicting anything yet. What you mentioned does have precedent though...some storms have dropped even higher amounts. Carla in 1961 was a big rainmaker IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Carla in 1961 was a big rainmaker IIRC. Indeed it was: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/carla1961.html Site with rainfall amounts from various tropical entities in the Midwest: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcmidwest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hard to call for an Ike repeat but this is one of the more legit remnant shots we've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hard to call for an Ike repeat but this is one of the more legit remnant shots we've seen in a long time. Well, they both start with the letter I. Anyways, our thread from Ike from EUSWX...if anyone wants to kill some time/and is interested: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/173618-midwestohio-valley-heavy-rainike-remnants-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Ike was nuts. The rain was one thing but the swath of wind damage is what sets that apart from most remnant storms. The wind aspect was not anticipated well at all...forecasts did begin to ramp up that morning but were still mostly underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 GFS ensembles have been fairly persistent the past few runs with where they landfall Isaac and where they take his remnants. The mean shows a good soaking for a large chunk of this sub-forum, although a shift a bit south would be needed to bring any significant relief to the more extreme drought areas. Plenty of time to sit back and watch this. Wow... Big rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I don't know if I'd be predicting anything yet. What you mentioned does have precedent though...some storms have dropped even higher amounts. Carla in 1961 was a big rainmaker IIRC. Just shooting thoughts out - somewhere in this subforum region that would be reasonable if things work out right. Whether it would be towards the Ohio River or the Lower Lakes. Looks like the remnants will head into drought stricken areas and that's the positive aspect of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 6z GFS has a stripe of 10"+ across Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 6z GFS has a stripe of 10"+ across Chicago Just a bit over done I'd say Although with the frontal interaction and PWATs off the charts, not entirely unrealistic. Edit: Bufkit raw numbers for KORD from start to finish with the remnants of Isaac puts out 10.30" QPF including a 3 hour period of 4.89". This is by far the most QPF I have ever seen displayed on Bufkit. Although you don't often have PWATs of 2.60" at any point in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Just a bit over done I'd say Although with the frontal interaction and PWATs off the charts, not entirely unrealistic. Thought it was worth mentioning...I don't think I've seen that contour up here, fantasy or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Thought it was worth mentioning...I don't think I've seen that contour up here, fantasy or not I think the highest contour I have ever seen up this way is 6" which was an over convective MCS that never verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 this now is the highest 6hr qpf max I've seen for around here. 6.2". Not saying at all it's going to happen, just had to post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 this now is the highest 6hr qpf max I've seen for around here. 6.2". Not saying at all it's going to happen, just had to post this. You mean I can't put you on record calling for biblical record breaking rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 6z GFS has a stripe of 10"+ across Chicago Dang! I've never seen anything higher than 9" on the GFS qpf scale before. Looks like they had to extend it this time around! That's overdone...probably - it goes to show you where the models thinks the remnants are going to go at least. That would end the drought in northern IL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Dang! I've never seen anything higher than 9" on the GFS qpf scale before. Looks like they had to extend it this time around! That's overdone...probably - it goes to show you where the models thinks the remnants are going to go at least. That would end the drought in northern IL! most of the models show more of a central IL or OH valley situation…I still think we see some rain given the frontal interaction but I'm favoring heaviest well south. Obviously the further west of a landfall, the better our chances look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.