SchaumburgStormer Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 The water tables will come up considerably with this event and that is key to agricultural interests in the spring. Nice to the see the 0.50" line creeping closer to my area. Edit: Surprised to see no flood watches up south of I-80...! It is so dry south of I-80 that unless it comes down as a deluge, the ground will be able to take a lot before flooding becomes an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Downstream, Pine Bluff AR (PBF) has had 8.39" storm total through 9:00pm. Before this event, on August 29, they were at 22.10" of rainfall for the year...with a year to date departure of -10.96". As of 9:00pm tonight, they're now at 30.49" for the year...with a year to date departure of -2.70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 The event is pretty much at the doorstep here and it's still very uncertain how much rain will fall here and for the QC. NAM has shifted back south a little in this area, but it looks like the GFS is maintaining the further north placement. Definitely not gonna get heavy rain here, but it's still possible we could get a half inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Isaac probably has become a cold core system again based on the phase space. Definitely has a cold front and warm front, and it's inner core is relatively convection free as opposed to the frontogenic regions. It's fun to watch tropical systems become mid-latitude systems as they interact with the mid-latitude baroclinicity. We can no longer consider this to be tropical though. It's no different than the average weak mid-latitude cyclone, but still remarkable since it's rare to have tropical air intrude this far north, and the air south of the warm front is certainly tropical. The mid-latitude vortex itself is due to the contrast between the tropical air and the continental air, driven by moisture differences rather than temperature. The original barotropic vortex might be 10% of the energy or less, and is being overwhelmed by other processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Interesting analysis Turtle! Heaviest rainfall report in ILX cwa so far: 1027 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW WOODSON 39.62N 90.24W 08/31/2012 M3.10 INCH MORGAN IL MESONET FROM SWOP...TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...STILL RAINING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Not sure what to expect here in LAF with this one. Run to run model continuity has been less than ideal. 0z Euro looks like about an inch total. 0z GFS with 2.50"+, 6z GFS about an inch. 0z NAM about 0.75", 6z NAM has 1.50"+. Can't say I like the look of the downstream radars for MBY at the moment. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 cool little convergence in play on LOT radar...dry air is clearly winning north of I80...respectably breezy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Respectable amounts from the ILX CWA so far. 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MORRISONVILLE 39.42N 89.46W 09/01/2012 M4.30 INCH CHRISTIAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW TAYLORVILLE 39.50N 89.29W 09/01/2012 M4.90 INCH CHRISTIAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W KINCAID 39.59N 89.47W 09/01/2012 M3.42 INCH CHRISTIAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W 09/01/2012 M4.54 INCH MORGAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER 0600 AM HEAVY RAIN VIRGINIA 39.95N 90.21W 09/01/2012 M3.98 INCH CASS IL CO-OP OBSERVER 0542 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW WOODSON 39.62N 90.24W 09/01/2012 M4.50 INCH MORGAN IL MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Not sure what to expect here in LAF with this one. Run to run model continuity has been less than ideal. 0z Euro looks like about an inch total. 0z GFS with 2.50"+, 6z GFS about an inch. 0z NAM about 0.75", 6z NAM has 1.50"+. Can't say I like the look of the downstream radars for MBY at the moment. We'll see I guess. I think you'll do fine. Kind of a nowcast. With quasi boundary set up over area, the tropical moisture is having problems pushing into the drier air, but LAF looks to be far enough south that as the low begins to drift east, that plume currently across eastern IL should reach you and stay over you if the low does indeed take an ESE track. I'd say you'll be good for 1.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I think you'll do fine. Kind of a nowcast. With quasi boundary set up over area, the tropical moisture is having problems pushing into the drier air, but LAF looks to be far enough south that as the low begins to drift east, that plume currently across eastern IL should reach you and stay over you if the low does indeed take an ESE track. I'd say you'll be good for 1.75". Yeah, I'm not sure. This thing is taking its time moving east. Big old dry slot lurks not far behind the band of rain to my southwest...not that it's one and done with this event of course. Tomorrow is still touch and go. Regardless, the earlier outlooks of 3.00-5.00"+ in this area will not be realized. Score one for Hoosier's guy at the local TV station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Yeah, I'm not sure. This thing is taking its time moving east. Big old dry slot lurks not far behind the band of rain to my southwest...not that it's one and done with this event of course. Tomorrow is still touch and go. Regardless, the earlier outlooks of 3.00-5.00"+ in this area will not be realized. Score one for Hoosier's guy at the local TV station. Indeed. It's all coming together for Chad's big September to August outlook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Indeed. It's all coming together for Chad's big September to August outlook! Plus, the girl at the bank this morning told me that this event is a bust...was already supposed to have 2.00" yesterday. I just smiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 getting big fat drops...looks like a cell went up near by Def raining...really weird convergence cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I'm at 2.3" as of an hour ago in East Peoria, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Urban and small stream flood advisory up for Iroquois, Kankakee, and Will counties in LOT's CWA. * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1017 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING IN THE AREA. * RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE... BOURBONNAIS...BRADLEY...KANKAKEE...MOMENCE...WILMINGTON...AROMA PARK...BRAIDWOOD...CHEBANSE...HERSCHER...HOPKINS PARK...AND ST. ANNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 A map of all the Co-op observers tracking Isaac's rain. http://www.cocorahs.org/ Noticing a few cells trying to get going around South Bend north of the main band. Hopefully will see the moisture flare up as we get into the middle part of the day. Flood Advisory now up from Will County on southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Getting some moderate to at brief periods of heavy rain here at the moment. Should be short lived though, as it's relatively narrow and there isn't much on the radar just to my southwest. Looking at the 12z NAM and GFS, this might be it for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 This thing is really losing steam/intensity as it creeps north. Looking lea than stellar for rockford north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Torrential rain with this band here. I can see how if you get under on of these for an hour or so, it can add up quick. 0.90" last hour at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 1020 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E WILMINGTON 41.30N 88.12W 09/01/2012 M0.00 INCH WILL IL COCORAHS RAINFALL IN 60 MINUTES. HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 1020 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E WILMINGTON 41.30N 88.12W 09/01/2012 M0.00 INCH WILL IL COCORAHS RAINFALL IN 60 MINUTES. HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING. Talk about missing data! Looks like Cyclone will get in on this band afterall. - although it does not look very heavy. Kankakee County is getting the brunt of the heavy rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Got a good amount of virga showing up on radar in these bands. Have had some radar returns right over mby with nothing hitting the groud. Dry air appears to be handly winning the battle. Time to start the sprinkler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Some nice cells popping up out ahead of the main band of rain.. Getting a nice downpour here Really dark outside too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2012 Author Share Posted September 1, 2012 Getting some moderate to at brief periods of heavy rain here at the moment. Should be short lived though, as it's relatively narrow and there isn't much on the radar just to my southwest. Looking at the 12z NAM and GFS, this might be it for LAF. Looks like a prolonged break before more stuff moves in. Really depends if we get under another enhanced band like we saw earlier. Picked up a quick 1.15" at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Looks like a prolonged break before more stuff moves in. Really depends if we get under another enhanced band like we saw earlier. Looks that way. 1.15" at LAF so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Really solid downpour actually now Can really feel the tropical nature associated with these rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Looks that way. 1.15" at LAF so far. My 1.75" prediction for you guys may end up being way low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 My 1.75" prediction for you guys may end up being way low. The rain was tropical that moved through earlier. If we get another like that one again, yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2012 Author Share Posted September 1, 2012 The rain was tropical that moved through earlier. If we get another like that one again, yep. Radar estimates look to be underdone. I guess that's not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Nice to see some cells popping up on the northern edge of the rain band, hopefully we can get some rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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