IMADreamer Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well Isaac is here. No rain yet but when I went for my morning walk the edge moved over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 NAM is finally getting a clue...has come north a bit. Feeling pretty confident that I see .50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z gfs gives chicago some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 You can tell that as the Isaac continues to lose it's tropical characteristics, the precip shield is rotating around to the N side of the low. GFS also seems to be picking up better on some convergence to the north along the weak front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Dewpoint up to 70 at LAF. Probably not going to hurt things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Dewpoint up to 70 at LAF. Probably not going to hurt things. 87/68 at ORD with deep long vectors leading up from the gulf. Hope janetjanet has a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 there's like a 9" gradient over like half of DVN's CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Here he comes... The regional radar loop on the nexlab site is pretty cool looking if you wanna check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 there's like a 9" gradient over like half of DVN's CWA Looks like a little love up this way. Peoria to be the center of this rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 It does seem like the heaviest axis could end up a little farther north than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Seems like a good call. I think there could easily be localized 8-10" amounts in IL (hopefully not more). Not as clear whether that happens farther east but can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Looks like the GFS is suggesting lake enhanced rain for Alek! - bulls eye southern end of LM. I might have gotten closer to the 0.5" line. I doubt that is coming from the lake. 850 mb temps are like 17C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 RAP is suggesting that moisture will have no problem making at least to the WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 RAP is suggesting that moisture will have no problem making at least to the WI border. The big question - what will Skilling's RPM do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 The big question - what will Skilling's RPM do? Has the RAP been that bad? Havne't looked at it since the string of derechos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Has the RAP been that bad? Havne't looked at it since the string of derechos. I haven't followed it much other than the big heat waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 farther south 1000 AM HEAVY RAIN PINE BLUFF 34.21N 92.02W 08/31/2012 M8.50 INCH JEFFERSON AR TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL SO FAR COVERING 23 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 farther south 1000 AM HEAVY RAIN PINE BLUFF 34.21N 92.02W 08/31/2012 M8.50 INCH JEFFERSON AR TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL SO FAR COVERING 23 HOURS. yep...probably a good sign of potential to come for someone in our region given the model insistence on really slowing things down over the area. FWIW 12z GFS ensembles also jumped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Outer bands are just about into the La Crosse area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 High clouds from Isaac are moving in which is kind of neat, but we'd be lucky to get rain. Some models keep it totally south while others show some of the precip creeping into Wisconsin, but no more than 0.5". Isaac's wind field will be moving in though, GFS has 850 mb winds reaching 27 mph from the east at the closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 RAP is suggesting that moisture will have no problem making at least to the WI border. where are you seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Isaac's clouds have overspread this far north now. Should start cooling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Also starting to see where the weak cold front is across upper midwest slow pushing southeast. Marked by scattered cu from central MI back into IA/MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Isaac's clouds have overspread this far north now. Should start cooling off. Had clouds for a few hours now and it is still quite miserable outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 This is sorta interesting...since 1896, there have been 28 remnant storms that passed with 200 miles of LAF. The vast majority of these had some sort of easterly component in motion as they passed by but there are a few exceptions. If we narrow it down to 100 miles, the number drops to 12, or about a 1 in 10 year occurrence. Interestingly, there have been 4 to pass with 100 miles just since 2005 (Arlene, Dennis, Gustav, Ike). The closest are an unnamed storm in October 1923 and Ike in September 2008, both of which basically tracked directly overhead. Here is the map for storms within 200 miles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Blah..with the drought alot will just soak into the ground...although we did get a good dumping a week or so ago...flash flood guidence still very high..plus it will be falling over several days...but there will be some surprises i assume(ie isolated problem areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Carrollton, IL in Green County CITY ROAD COMMISSIONER OBSERVED DEBRIS IN THE AIR NEAR THE CITY CEMETARY ... INCLUDING TIN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Update HPC has shifted day 1 heavy rains a little more north QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 610 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR UPDATE.. CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 1800 UTC NAM/GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST QPF INVOF T.D. ISAAC WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NWD...APPROX 40 NM...FOR EARLY PERIOD TRENDS WITH ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVR ERN MO AND GENERAL TRENDS IN THE EC AND NAM CONEST TO SHOW A SLIGHT NWD TREND. THE GFS REMAINS THE NRN OUTLIER WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF VERY HEAVY RAINS OVR NCNTRL IL...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM CONEST. WHILE THE FINAL DAY 1 QPF DID TREND SOMEWHAT NORTH...STILL BELIEVE THE GFS TYPE SOLN MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH AND DUE TO GRID SCALE ISSUES MORE COMMON TO THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 The water tables will come up considerably with this event and that is key to agricultural interests in the spring. Nice to the see the 0.50" line creeping closer to my area. Edit: Surprised to see no flood watches up south of I-80...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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