Geos Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 18z GFS is impressive for Cyclone's neck of the woods and the Quad Cities. 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 For fun, as I saw it mentioned on IND's site...the 2003 Labor Day weekend heavy rainfall/flooding in central Indiana. The dates of that event? August 31-September 2. Write up of that event, which did involve tropical remnants/moisture: http://www.crh.noaa....?n=sept03_flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 For fun, as I saw it mentioned on IND's site...the 2003 Labor Day weekend heavy rainfall/flooding in central Indiana. The dates of that event? August 31-September 2. Write up of that event, which did involve tropical remnants/moisture: http://www.crh.noaa....?n=sept03_flood That's what I was thinking of too. Still one of my favorite weather events. I've never seen it rain with such intensity for such a long period of time. I did a report on that event for a weather forecasting class. Here's a radar loop I saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 OT, but this is another idea for Fickle's newspaper article. Tropical remnants and resulting rainfall in the LAF area. It would be appropriate for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Not until it is inline with Detroit, from then on it looks like it would shear out. That block is pretty far East and doesn't drop in until late Sunday. All it will do is probably shaft your area and points NE from there. Welp Stebo, I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree. 12z EURO valid Sunday 12z. That doesn't look pretty far east to me. It looks like it would keep the bulk of Isaac south of I-90, regardless of longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 OT, but this is another idea for Fickle's newspaper article. Tropical remnants and resulting rainfall in the LAF area. It would be appropriate for the season. I'd like to see that. I don't think there have been any crazy high rain events in LAF proper in the past several decades but certainly possible that I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I'd like to see that. I don't think there have been any crazy high rain events in LAF proper in the past several decades but certainly possible that I missed something. June 11-12, 2004. I remember it well. Granted it spanned two days and wasn't continuous, but close enough. 7.65" at LAF June 11 obs at LAF: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html June 12 obs at LAF: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html And going back to the 2003 Labor Day weekend event, and assuming LAF was functioning correctly, the total rainfall was 4.22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 OT, but this is another idea for Fickle's newspaper article. Tropical remnants and resulting rainfall in the LAF area. It would be appropriate for the season. I'm already going ahead with the October 1989 snowstorm, but if the HPC forecast comes close to verifying, I'm sure I will be asked to write about other tropical storm remnants. BTW, we also run an in-house WRF at Purdue. It only goes out to 84 hours, but it shows similar rainfall totals to HPC's. http://wxp.eas.purdue.edu/wrfdata/12Z/wrfruns/ppttotal.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 June 11-12, 2004. I remember it well. Granted it spanned two days and wasn't continuous, but close enough. 7.65" at LAF June 11 obs at LAF: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html June 12 obs at LAF: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html And going back to the 2003 Labor Day weekend event, and assuming LAF was functioning correctly, the total rainfall was 4.22". Was '04 from a tropical system? I don't see it listed in the storm archive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Man, the gradient on the West side of this system is gonna be tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 00z NAM has PWATs near 2.6" in Missouri at 12z Saturday. That is probably at the upper end of what you'd see even in tropical remnant scenarios. PWATs are near 3" around the Gulf coast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Incredible precip gradient on the northern edge of this thing continues to be advertised. GFS has bounced back and forth about 15 times now. The latest run drops over 8" in the southern portions of the DVN area, while the northern areas get nothing. 18z GFS showed me getting 3", with the new one showing less than a half inch. Maybe models will have a better handle on things tomorrow as we finally get the system moving north, and it will also be closer to the event up this way. Still not very optimistic here with the back and forth nature of the models. Still looks like central IL through the northern half of IN stand to get the best rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 This northern edge/gradient might be impossible to nail until it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I've been favoring southern solutions for a while but that said still find the model solutions showing so little precip in the N/NW quads odd...especially as it gets this far north. Either way, i think we'll have a good fix after todays 12/0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Was '04 from a tropical system? I don't see it listed in the storm archive. No. Sorry, I was just speaking to high/extreme rain events locally. I want veer off topic anymore. Back on subject, IND already has 1-2" totals for Saturday and Saturday night in the LAF point and click, with heavy rain wording for Sunday. Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 81. South southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Saturday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I've been favoring southern solutions for a while but that said still find the model solutions showing so little precip in the N/NW quads odd...especially as it gets this far north. Either way, i think we'll have a good fix after todays 12/0z runs. FWIW, back east when tropical system remnants interact with another weather feature, the back edge of precip is usually pretty tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 FWIW, back east when tropical system remnants interact with another weather feature, the back edge of precip is usually pretty tight. I wasn't talking about the gradient, I was talking about the placement of the band relative to the low. EDIT: the current HPC map looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I wasn't talking about the gradient, I was talking about the placement of the band relative to the low. EDIT: the current HPC map looks good okay gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I guess what's most important is the areas of the Midwest that need it the worst, may cash in nicely. Not a drought buster for the majority, because the deficits are pretty deep in the southern portions of the region, but a step in the right direction. Latest drought monitor Latest HPC rainfall outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I've been favoring southern solutions for a while but that said still find the model solutions showing so little precip in the N/NW quads odd...especially as it gets this far north. Either way, i think we'll have a good fix after todays 12/0z runs. I would agree with you on the more southern solution. I am not sold on a "no rain" scenario from Cyclone, to me, to your area and north but I have significant doubts of us seeing the 1-3+ inch amounts. I am going to treat this like a winter storm (we are talking precip in inches, might as well) and make a call IMBY of .20" with Rockford receiving .10" and further north nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I'm getting nothing from this and we need it, but areas to the south need it a lot more, so hopefully this pans out for them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS came back similar to the 18z run yesterday. Lots of rain south of Cyclone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I'm getting nothing from this and we need it, but areas to the south need it a lot more, so hopefully this pans out for them.. I'm rooting for the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It seems as though most local forecast offices are not being as bullish as the HPC. IND going with 2 to 3 in there northern and northeastern counties and around 5 in the west. LMK going 1 to 3 region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It seems as though most local forecast offices are not being as bullish as the HPC. IND going with 2 to 3 in there northern and northeastern counties and around 5 in the west. LMK going 1 to 3 region wide. In this drought striken region I can't say I blame them for not calling for the home run. Unexpectedly higher amounts much better than huge underperformance in this instance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 12z Euro has the highest amounts roughly along/south of a PIA-LAF line. Amounts taper toward the 1-1.5" range around I-80 with a very sharp cutoff north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 12z Euro has the highest amounts roughly along/south of a PIA-LAF line. Amounts taper toward the 1-1.5" range around I-80 with a very sharp cutoff north of there. What is BUFKIT or OKK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 What is BUFKIT or OKK? You'd have to ask someone else for specific numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I've been favoring southern solutions for a while but that said still find the model solutions showing so little precip in the N/NW quads odd...especially as it gets this far north. Either way, i think we'll have a good fix after todays 12/0z runs. The heaviest QPF associated with tropical storms is always to the east of the center (exact opposite of what we expect with mid-latitude cold core storms). Don't ask to me to explain the meteorology behind it, but I've heard/read that several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 The heaviest QPF associated with tropical storms is always to the east of the center (exact opposite of what we expect with mid-latitude cold core storms). Don't ask to me to explain the meteorology behind it, but I've heard/read that several times. This is usually true near/shortly after landfall but heaviest precip often tends to shift along/west of track by the time storms make it here. Models haven't been showing it as much for this event, possibly because this is more of a ridge rounder and not really phasing with another system (just a guess)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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