Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 0z Euro brings the center pretty much over STL up through central IL, then moving east from there. Heavier rains make into the city (city on south), but not much farther north...until it moves east of Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 6z GFS ensembles targeting the northern half of IL through southern half of lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 3'+ even with 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 1:35 PM, Alek said: 3'+ even with 10:1 ratios Congrats. Looks like sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I'm okay with the rain but lets hope it doesn't do what Ike did and knock out power to a million people. Those winds were absolutely nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 1:38 PM, Chicago WX said: Congrats. Looks like sleet here. Dryslot sneaks into SEMI, Central parts of the state pounded with 3'+ In all seriousness though, even though this is still 5-6 days out I have to admit there is a bit of cautious excitement of the prospects of some serious rains for the region and locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 OK guys stop comparing summer time storms with Winter time storms!! This is a SERIOUS weather discussion site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I'll get nothing...move it farther north and it will redevelop of L Mich... Euro looks to bring it up into central IL... Whatever teh case, this could be good at recharging the soil for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Loving the big time potential with this thing. If the corridor of extreme rainfall amounts is as narrow as the 6z GFS suggests this will be tough to pin down right up until the day of the event. Still looks like a nice wide swath of 1-2" type rains surrounding the max swath though. Looks to give those outside the main hit area a good rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 12z GFS drenches I-70 to I-80 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 12z GFS going to have some ridiculous totals very close to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:15 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GFS going to have some ridiculous totals very close to LAF. Looks like a little bit of rain for Central Indiana.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:18 PM, Mottster said: Looks like a little bit of rain for Central Indiana.. 12z GFS would get IND close to normal rainfall for the year. At least there's a good chance this thing is going to dump some beneficial rains in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Check out the gradient in the SE part of IA and NE MO. Talk about going from something to almost nothing in a short distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Goodbye drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:21 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GFS would get IND close to normal rainfall for the year. At least there's a good chance this thing is going to dump some beneficial rains in the region. Could become the wettest August ever for IND. Yes, definitely the bigger picture is the areas that need some rain will get some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:23 PM, WestMichigan said: Check out the gradient in the SE part of IA and NE MO. Talk about going from something to almost nothing in a short distance. Best part is having Clouds all weekend long during Labor Day and Rain just off to the south. That's going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:24 PM, dmc76 said: Best part is having Clouds all weekend long during Labor Day and Rain just off to the south. That's going to suck Use today as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:27 PM, SpartyOn said: Use today as an example. Yep. I was thinking that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:18 PM, Mottster said: Looks like a little bit of rain for Central Indiana.. Lebanon gets dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Considerably less rain for northern Illinois and Chicago on the new run. Southern Wisconsin a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:31 PM, KokomoWX said: Lebanon gets dryslotted. Wouldn't be the first time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Not that it will make much difference for us but I'm really interested to see how strong this is at landfall. We've become used to seeing decaying N GOM hurricanes but this one may have a better chance to come in steady state or strengthening for at least a couple reasons. 1) current relative lack of organization/time until landfall which decreases the possibility of a poorly timed ERC and 2) favorable upper level pattern being progged with little shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:43 PM, Hoosier said: Not that it will make much difference for us but I'm really interested to see how strong this is at landfall. We've become used to seeing decaying N GOM hurricanes but this one may have a better chance to come in steady state or strengthening for at least a couple reasons. 1) current relative lack of organization/time until landfall which decreases the possibility of a poorly timed ERC and 2) favorable upper level pattern being progged with little shear Let your tropical weenie out, what's your call for strength upon landfall? And where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 1:52 PM, Stebo said: Dryslot sneaks into SEMI, Central parts of the state pounded with 3'+ In all seriousness though, even though this is still 5-6 days out I have to admit there is a bit of cautious excitement of the prospects of some serious rains for the region and locally. I'm going to have to take a peak at the GFS.... Since it caught the path before the other models. Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Latest gfs screws most of Michigan. With last night's sub tenth of an inch, my area will continue to dry out Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 On 8/27/2012 at 4:05 PM, Hoosier said: Here it comes I like how that track looks, the mean track looks to take it right around here, but then again I have yet to even see the GFS place S Wisconsin in a big rain zone, it's always been just to the south, so I'm wondering if this projected path is too far west for what the mean models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Will go good with the 2.5" that fell over the previous 24 hours for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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