Hoosier Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Still a fair model spread on where this will make landfall, and any potential impacts for us are a good week away, but not much else in the way of interesting weather going on right now... Not worth getting down into details yet but the key to me is that there is no readily identifiable, well-agreed upon synoptic feature that suggests a quick northeast motion/recurve upon landfall. Can't write that off yet but odds don't seem to favor it at this point. So, I think there is a decent chance of this system making some noise for parts of the area as long as it makes landfall in the FL panhandle or farther west. With any luck, perhaps this can put another dent in the drought for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 ILN thinks it will head up this way. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 141 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING PRECIPITATION UP INTO THE KENTUCKY...INDIANA...AND OHIO AREAS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WENT CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 For the sake of many drought stricken areas, we should all hope ILN is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Here's DVN take on Isaac AS WE SIT AND BAKE WILL BE KEEPING CLOSEEYE ON REMNANTS OF ISAAC. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TOWARDS A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE MS GULF COAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON TUE. GFS AND UKMET LINGER EASTERN TROUGH SUFFICIENTLY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS AND THUS RECURVE ISAAC REMNANTS INTO THE APPALACHIANS. LATEST GEM AND ECMWF HOWEVER OFFER VERY INTRIGUING SOLUTIONS AND SHOW ISAAC REMNANTS LIFTING INTO OR VERY NEAR REGION TOWARD END OF THE PERIOD... AS REMNANTS ARE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF FLATTENING AND EASTWARD MIGRATING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WOULD HAVE OBVIOUS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION. THIS OF COURSE STILL A LONG WAY OFF AND VERY UNCERTAIN... BUT WELL WORTH WATCHING THE EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. It looks like the farther west Issac landfalls the better the chance that its remnants make it to the great lakes. Edit: 12z GFS looks to be on board now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Issac would need to hug that cone of uncertainty on the west side, I think to make an impact on the drought for hard hit areas of IL and most of IN. Nice to see the latest EURO showing precipitation into WC IL. I think the key is for that northern plains trough to slow down and allow the remnants to back further west. On the east side of systems you usually find that leftover feeder band pulling moisture out of the Gulf on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Sorta fun to glance at forecast soundings even though it's very far out. Can really see the moist environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The last couple of long term forecasters at IWX don't like the odds of Isaac impacting Northern IN. Even IND has doubts. GFS huggers. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 311 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012 THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT - TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANTS OF ISAAC. NOT SURE WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER WITHTHE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND HIGHER LATTITUDE DISPLACEMENT OF THE JET...THE EC SOLUTION OF HOLDING THESYSTEM TOGETHER INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DOES LOOK A LITTLE SUSPECT. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM NOT LIKELY TO REACHTHE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 444 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012TS ISAAC TO LKLY GARNER HURRICANE STRENGTH ACRS ERN GOMEX IN NEXT 24-48 HRS. NIL CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WRT FINAL OUTCOME AS SYSTEMBECOMES POST TROPICAL NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INADVOF OF SYSTEM SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHC FOR FAR NWD ADVANCE INTO SRN GRTLKS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 407 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM IS THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC. AGAINTONIGHT...GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED UP UNTIL NEAR LANDFALL...WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME. PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARD A SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS ISAAC TO THE GULF COAST THEN QUICKLY TURNS ITNORTHEAST...BUT SEVERAL SOLUTIONS DO STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS TO IMPACT THE AREA. GIVEN THIS SIGNIFICANTUNCERTAINTY AND INCONSISTENCY...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN TO RUN...MUST CUT FAIRLY HIGH INITIALIZATION POPS TO NO MORE THAN LOW CHANCE.THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MERIT CLOSE MONITORING AS BENEFICIAL RAINS COULD RESULT FROM A BRUSH WITH ISAAC...BUT REMNANTS CAN ALSO BRINGSEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 If the 12z Euro comes in with something in the same ballpark as the previous solutions, then every major 12z model run would have the remnants impacting the Lakes/OV. Edit: Oops,I guess the Ukie wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 lol, 12z Euro is now one of the farthest east models...and feels the impact of the weaker ridge and turns sharply NE after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 If the 12z Euro comes in with something in the same ballpark as the previous solutions, then every major 12z model run would have the remnants impacting the Lakes/OV. Edit: Oops,I guess the Ukie wouldn't. Models cant seem to make up their mind, The GFS and Euro have basically flip flopped. With GFS farther west and the Euro way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 lol, 12z Euro is now one of the farthest east models...and feels the impact of the weaker ridge and turns sharply NE after landfall. It has been fairly consistent, now this. *hiccup* EDIT: I'll bet the Republicans are sweating now. This may strain relations with the EU (lame attempt at a joke). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Models cant seem to make up their mind, The GFS and Euro have basically flip flopped. With GFS farther west and the Euro way east. Yeah the 18z GFS swings the storm west and plows it into Mobile. TWC was mentioning how the low pressure trough over the Gulf will encourage a more WNW track for tonight and tomorrow, before a NW, then northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Euro says no lunch for you...takes it up the east coast...doubt any of us feel anything except hot hot hot..and sticky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 No one is mentioning a track up the East Coast. That's kinda funny that the EURO is that far east. The models TWC is showing takes Issac between Pensacola and New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 00z GFS has landfall in Louisiana. It's gonna be hilarious if the Euro doesn't come west. A significant number of the 12z Euro ensembles still had a western solution which raises caution about buying the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac. Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac. Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though. Good luck if you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac. Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though. Cool stuff. Looks like it could be a good opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac. Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though. Good luck! Would love to do something like that but too much crap going on for me. Hopefully the western solutions end up winning out and give at least some of us a good tropical soaking later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Not that it has anything to do with the remnants...but i'm going to try and head down to "chase" Isaac. Chances are 50/50 at this point, with two issue that have to be worked out. Hopefully i'll be there though. I'd be a bit worried about it just stalling, sorta like the 0z GFS had but good luck if you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Interesting...brings the remains up into Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Still far out, and a lot to be sorted out, let alone this being one model's interpretation...but here's the 6z GFS and individual GFS ensembles 72 hour total QPF from Thursday through 18z next Sunday. Quite a few winners in that group, depending on your perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 P007 FTW. Seriously, a couple more runs like this and those mets who said the tropical moisture would not reach the southern GL/OV will be biting their tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Many of those ensembles look good for the great lakes area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 12z GFS would work nicely. Definitely would like to see Missouri get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 12Z GFS showing Issac low just west of STL at 156 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 When I seen the latest movement west of Isaac; I too was wondering if it would head towards the midwest. I'll be praying it does with its moisture for those in the drought areas. Heck, maybe I can see a wee bit of it too, lol Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Liking the recent trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 The 12z ECMWF did an about face from yesterday. It now brings it due north through west central Alabama, then drifts NNW to PAH. Then it does a sudden right turn and makes tracks through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 The 12z ECMWF did an about face from yesterday. It now brings it due north through west central Alabama, then drifts NNW to PAH. Then it does a sudden right turn and makes tracks through the OV. Euro ensembles west of the OP as well in terms of landfall. So there should be some decent rains according to them as well for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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