WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Intuitively, the history of storms making it to the EC of the USA is much lower when the storm passes east and north of 20N, 60W than SW of that grid point. It appears to come perilously close even this far out, so I'm taking a wait and see approach to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Next on the list is "Kirk". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Ole JB said one will be in southeast sept 2-4th. Let's see if he is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 All models say fish. I think JB will once again be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Ole JB said one will be in southeast sept 2-4th. Let's see if he is right I dont think he was talking about this one but the next one, which models do have on a favored track for a SE hit out in fantasy land timeframes, prolly based on this run..although the timeframe here is Sept 8-9 not Sept 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Things are starting to get a little fishy up in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I dont think he was talking about this one but the next one, which models do have on a favored track for a SE hit out in fantasy land timeframes, prolly based on this run..although the timeframe here is Sept 8-9 not Sept 2-4. no according to his site he is not talking about this one. Some may disagree with him but he does spot most before others. I just love the watching the bashing he gets from most. Funny thing is he has been talking about winter since April and how good it will be for us. So if he verifies what will the critics say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 no according to his site he is not talking about this one. Some may disagree with him but he does spot most before others. I just love the watching the bashing he gets from most. Funny thing is he has been talking about winter since April and how good it will be for us. So if he verifies what will the critics say? They will say, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now an then." I'm surprised you had to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 They will say, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now an then." I'm surprised you had to ask. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Even a broken clock is right twice a day. He forecasts a bad winter every year. Eventually he was bound to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Even a broken clock is right twice a day. even you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 He forecasts a bad winter every year. Eventually he was bound to be right. I don't care what he says or if he is right. Robert feels this could be a good winter as well. But time will tell. As a contractor I hope they both right. But that is a few months down the road so back to watching the bashing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 no according to his site he is not talking about this one. Some may disagree with him but he does spot most before others. I just love the watching the bashing he gets from most. Funny thing is he has been talking about winter since April and how good it will be for us. So if he verifies what will the critics say? I got nothing against JB and I am not one of the JB bashers but he does hype way way to much, that said the only way I see that 97L could IMO become a player is if Isaac moves way faster than forecast and gets off the east coast and pumps up the ridge turning 97L back west and some model runs showed that when Isaac was forecast to move quickly....however as of right now it doesnt appear that Isaac will do that but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 They will say, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now an then." I'm surprised you had to ask. Mr. Burns, maybe not as difficul as the adage implies. Squirrels have fleas. Ergo, they will scratch, and thus, occasionally, bump the mystery package Joe, love him or hate him, is a canny scratcher. T Wow, I just re read that, and maybe there is some sense in it, but I can't get there from here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Mr. Burns, maybe not as difficul as the adage implies. Squirrels have fleas. Ergo, they will scratch, and thus, occasionally, bump the mystery package Joe, love him or hate him, is a canny scratcher. T Wow, I just re read that, and maybe there is some sense in it, but I can't get there from here, lol. You lost me at the "mystery package". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 EURO brings Leslie much closer to the East Coast than the GFS...or the NHC cone. Maybe something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I wouldn't totally discount Leslie being a factor somewhere along the East Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Ensembles were all fish...look at how much spread there is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I wouldn't totally discount Leslie being a factor somewhere along the East Coast... I think the odds are it won't. That said, I don't feel you can write it off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I wouldn't totally discount Leslie being a factor somewhere along the East Coast... I wouldn't for NC north. I had originally given it ~5% chance for there based on the lack of modeled threats as well as climo for storms that form that far east, especially in El Nino.s, but then raised it to ~20% when I saw several subsequent GFS/Euro runs that either hit or teased the NE. Now, those models are missing the NE US. So, I'm already backing it down to a 10% chance for NC northward. I'm going with only about a 3% chance for SC and a mere 1% for GA/FL since there's no ridge progged that would impart enough westward steering to get it to those three states. Keep in mind that these numbers are based on climo and my study of hundreds of actual tracks. Also, compare this to last years's Irene, which was progged on every GFS run from twelve days and every Euro run from eight days out to hit the U.S. By the way, folks, put those guns down. Being a messenger surely is a very dangerous business but someone has to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I wouldn't for NC north. I had originally given it ~5% chance for there based on the lack of modeled threats as well as climo for storms that form that far east, especially in El Nino.s, but then raised it to ~20% when I saw several subsequent GFS/Euro runs that either hit or teased the NE. Now, those models are missing the NE US. So, I'm already backing it down to a 10% chance for NC northward. I'm going with only about a 3% chance for SC and a mere 1% for GA/FL since there's no ridge progged that would impart enough westward steering to get it to those three states. Keep in mind that these numbers are based on climo and my study of hundreds of actual tracks. Also, compare this to last years's Irene, which was progged on every GFS run from twelve days and every Euro run from eight days out to hit the U.S. By the way, folks, put those guns down. Being a messenger surely is a very dangerous business but someone has to do it. Woo hoo... so your saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Woo hoo... so your saying there's a chance. Yes, Jim Carrey!! The excitement level is keeping me up at night! However, the chances are not quite as good as I thought yesterday. Then again, I'm still thinking about 5% NE, 3% NC, 1% SC and 0.5% GA/FL. So, still quite respectable odds and enough to keep everyone riveted to their computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Yes, Jim Carrey!! The excitement level is keeping me up at night! However, the chances are not quite as good as I thought yesterday. Then again, I'm still thinking about 5% NE, 3% NC, 1% SC and 0.5% GA/FL. So, still quite respectable odds and enough to keep everyone riveted to their computers. Yes, but you are going by your climo studies, and model depictions. Step back, Larry, step back, and slow down. Savor an ice cream. Enter that dream twilight where you hear the mathmatical/musical notes of the cosmos. The thrumming of mole focus. Now, what does your weather soul say? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 JB was right about Kirk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Yes, but you are going by your climo studies, and model depictions. Step back, Larry, step back, and slow down. Savor an ice cream. Enter that dream twilight where you hear the mathmatical/musical notes of the cosmos. The thrumming of mole focus. Now, what does your weather soul say? Tony Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Lol T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Leslie is a fish. Even for Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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