Tropical Storm Isaac, Part 2: Isaac Moving Into The Gulf Of Mexico-Hurricane Warnings For Morgan City, LA/MS/AL & FL Panhandle To Destin, FL

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...25.7N 84.7W

ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA

ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

The 12Z EURO yesterday had that for 12Z this morning.

[wxsmwhrms]

The 12Z EURO yesterday had that for 12Z this morning.

And you want a real LOL with that? The "hurricane models" from just 06Z tonight's forecast are horrible in comparison. The 06Z GFDL shows 995 mb for right now, and the 06Z HWRF shows 972 mb. :-)

[wxsmwhrms]

And you want a real LOL with that? The "hurricane models" from just 06Z tonight's forecast are horrible in comparison. The 06Z GFDL shows 995 mb for right now, and the 06Z HWRF shows 972 mb. :-)

And depending on which one you would want to believe, you either have a strong TS/cat 1 going to Beaumont (GFDL) or a category 3 going to the mouth of the Mississippi River (HWRF).

[Pilotwx]

I believe that Isaac is getting ready for RI in the next 24 hours, Once it pulls a little farther west Land interaction (FLA) will have less effect and it angular mo. should allow it to intensify. Outflow is looking better because on WV you can see off to south that we are starting to see Thunderstorms and entrainment into the storm. I cannot see how this will be a CAT1 @ landfall, still going with Cat3 myself, heading over that hot bathwater in Gulf I just don't see it being a Cat1, been wrong plenty of times in my life!

[LakeEffectKing]

As a few have eluded to, the last second deepening depicted by the Euro certainly keeps the idea of some period of RI on the table.... If we see an eye pop on the IR today, there will be increased concerns for tonight's potential.

[LakeEffectKing]

I believe that Isaac is getting ready for RI in the next 24 hours, Once it pulls a little farther west Land interaction (FLA) will have less effect and it angular mo. should allow it to intensify. Outflow is looking better because on WV you can see off to south that we are starting to see Thunderstorms and entrainment into the storm. I cannot see how this will be a CAT1 @ landfall, still going with Cat3 myself, heading over that hot bathwater in Gulf I just don't see it being a Cat1, been wrong plenty of times in my life!

Well, it hasn't been a hurricane over it's entire life, when it seemingly had favorably progged conditions, so there is certtainly a decent chance of continued mis reads by the models.....

[WeatherMimmi]

it looks more like nw on this loop, or is the center now wrapping and it just looks that way?

[Seminole]

it looks more like nw on this loop, or is the center now wrapping and it just looks that way?

Could be a wobble. Need to see several more frames to definitively assertain if is moving NW.

[usedtobe]

A few observations this morning. I really thought after watching the way Key West radar was developing last night before bed that this thing would be a bit better organized by now. However, the fact that the NOAA aircraft states that an eye is forming, and the appearance of some stronger winds closer to the center than just the light winds that had been being observed in previous passes, suggests that maybe there is an inner core developing now. Also, a bit more push of outflow to the south and the appearance of the some convection south of the center would appear to imply that some abating of the southerly shear is occurring.

Today is the day that if we are going to see this thing make a run it should start to happen. GFS/EC shows substantial deepening starting later today and continuing right up to landfall. 12Z EC yesterday showed 988 mb at 12Z today which is going to be pretty darn close. I like the current NHC forecast of a high end cat 1 at landfall - if it can take a track which enables it to stay over water a bit longer or gets better organized quicker obviously a category 2 is still well within reach.

My own feeling is that a cat 2 will be hard to reach. The gfdl and hwrf both have bias of overdeepening storms though I do remember opal's monstrous 24 hr deepening that was not predicted. It does look like the storm is starting to get its act together so the deepening shown on the Euro and GFS looks reasonable.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Can someone get a new thread started up? Good break point with 12z models coming shortly.

[Chaser25973]

Can someone get a new thread started up? Good break point with 12z models coming shortly.

Done.