Tropical Storm Isaac, Part 2: Isaac Moving Into The Gulf Of Mexico-Hurricane Warnings For Morgan City, LA/MS/AL & FL Panhandle To Destin, FL

[ezweather]

On satellite, you can almost see a dimple in the center.. Almost like the eye starting to form. But definitely looks better organized tonight.

[PatrickSumner]

The pressure went up from 991 to 993. Can anyone explain why this is so? Satellite imagery looks so much better than the past 48 hours.

[mattmfm]

NHC has center fix quite a bit further south 24.2n 82.9w

[Bostonseminole]

NHC has center fix quite a bit further south 24.2n 82.9w

. Recon going for another pass, hopefully gets sorted out soon.

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

[turtlehurricane]

I can't believe the apparent center relocation to under the deepest convection wasn't mentioned in the 11 pm discussion as a possibility, or at least a discussion of structural changes and not this non-explanation. Now if it happens it'll be a surprise to everyone.

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAAC. HOWEVER...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION IN RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE AIRCRAFT FIXES HAVE BEEN NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SEEN IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

SINCE THAT TIME...THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT FOUND ANY STRONGER WINDS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...WAR WATERS...AND A CONDUCIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FAVOR STRENGTHENIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN INNER COR AND LARGE WIND FIELD COULD CONTINUE TO BE IMPEDING FACTORS FO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.

The forecasters on the weather channel should try a little harder too... unless they just aren't allowed to speak their minds or something like that.

[ALhurricane]

Well, they did shift it a bit farther W. Now coming in pretty much right at the mouth of the MS River.

It doesn't necessarily surprise me. I would have just waited for the 00z guidance to see if that is wise or not.

[wxsmwhrms]

NHC has center fix quite a bit further south 24.2n 82.9w

The reformation has been taking place just within the last hour, and they are likely trying to maintain some continuity and fix near the "broader center" until they get a firmer handle on this complex evolution.

[EasternUSWX]

VEL is picking up on the past few frame to the NE of the center. Also the green and red is fairly equal now.

[LakeEffectKing]

12z GFS/EnKF:

[EasternUSWX]

The pressure went up from 991 to 993. Can anyone explain why this is so? Satellite imagery looks so much better than the past 48 hours.

Center is trying to relocate. So pressure is going up in that area while will start to fall in the other area.

[LakeEffectKing]

NHC now has track JUST to the east of NO:

[Scott747]

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0258Z MON AUG 27 2012

THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME...WITH 58 DROPSONDE AND 10 FLIGHT

LEVEL RECON OBS IN THE VICINITY OF TS ISAAC AVBL FOR INGEST.

[tornadotony]

Getting a lot of higher winds showing up on Key West radar. No doubt in my mind that Isaac is likely strengthening.

[OUGrad05]

NHC now has track JUST to the east of NO:

NHC is in a tough spot with this forecast. It's as if they know the storm will either go significantly east or west of the forecast track but until it's more precisely known how Isaac will interact with the subtropical ridge it's tough to say which way it'll wind up going.

It could always end up on track I suppose but at this point it seems it'll be a central LA landfall or a MS/AL landfall.

[EasternUSWX]

Getting a lot of higher winds showing up on Key West radar. No doubt in my mind that Isaac is likely strengthening.

Yup last few frame kicked it up a few notches. Nice LLC forming too.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Getting a lot of higher winds showing up on Key West radar. No doubt in my mind that Isaac is likely strengthening.

Yeah for sure. Getting some 32 m/s velocities (about 72mph) now.

[David Reimer]

Getting a lot of higher winds showing up on Key West radar. No doubt in my mind that Isaac is likely strengthening.

Agreed. Tilts 0.9/1.3 are showing an increase in wind strength with the mid-level circulation in the past 30 minutes. It appears to be transitioning down to the surface. The air force is about to make another pass through the center.

[dan88]

850mb winds out of the NW through at least 24.5N now.

031300 2414N 08245W 8426 01467 //// +201 //// 185015 016 015 001 01

031330 2414N 08247W 8437 01456 //// +200 //// 190013 015 017 002 01

031400 2414N 08248W 8430 01464 //// +196 //// 185011 012 020 002 01

031430 2415N 08250W 8428 01464 //// +197 //// 179007 010 023 002 01

031500 2415N 08252W 8436 01458 //// +202 //// 172004 007 026 001 05

031530 2414N 08254W 8432 01463 //// +203 //// 236003 004 027 001 01

031600 2414N 08256W 8430 01463 //// +203 //// 279004 005 025 002 01

031630 2414N 08257W 8438 01456 //// +200 //// 326008 011 023 002 05

031700 2414N 08259W 8427 01464 //// +186 //// 351011 012 025 001 01

031730 2415N 08300W 8437 01456 //// +185 //// 349013 014 026 001 01

031800 2416N 08301W 8434 01457 //// +185 //// 343015 015 024 000 01

031830 2417N 08303W 8432 01463 //// +189 //// 347014 016 025 001 01

031900 2419N 08304W 8431 01463 //// +198 //// 349012 014 026 001 01

031930 2420N 08305W 8432 01462 //// +208 //// 349008 010 028 001 01

032000 2420N 08305W 8432 01462 //// +214 //// 349004 006 029 001 01

032030 2422N 08307W 8428 01464 //// +222 //// 328004 005 029 002 01

032100 2423N 08309W 8441 01452 //// +216 //// 345012 014 027 001 01

032130 2424N 08310W 8425 01469 //// +210 //// 352018 019 028 000 01

032200 2425N 08311W 8431 01462 //// +214 //// 356018 019 027 001 05

032230 2427N 08312W 8436 01461 //// +215 //// 348019 020 030 000 01

[Superstorm93]

Significant amount of lightning just north of the center.

This thing would be golden if it could relocate under the deepest convection.

[RobbTC]

NHC now has track JUST to the east of NO:

Takes it right over the Lake though.

[turtlehurricane]

Recon just passed through where the center should have been if not relocating, it's not there anymore.

Radar center at 24.8 °N, 83.0 °W, altitude of 8k feet. Steady NW movement of about 30 miles. Can't wait for recon to sample it.

[Marion_NC_WX]

If I was a forecaster I would feel a bit uneasy just for the due fact that the center has definitely shifted north over the past 3-6 hours to better stack itself with the mid levels. The 11 pm coordinates for the center are already wrong and you gotta think the center on the 0z GFS will be wrong as well.

After all this time the LLC still cannot firmly establish itself...and until it does, there has to be a sense of being uneasy with the model projections.

[OKpowdah]

Radar center at 24.8 °N, 83.0 °W, altitude of 8k feet. Steady NW movement of about 30 miles. Can't wait for recon to sample it.

I hope to see some interesting comments in the VDM re: lightning and turbulence

[valkhorn]

I am just flabbergasted by the wishcasting. The radar presention could not be worse, everything considered. It is a joke.

I don't think we're seeing the same radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=byx&product=NCR&loop=yes

It's looking VERY good to me, especially on the last few frames. That's a mid level circulation, and to me looks like the formative stages of an eye like feature.

[Superstorm93]

Very nice.

If this becomes dominant, Isaac could finally stop dragging its heels.

[Derecho!]

Radar center at 24.8 °N, 83.0 °W, altitude of 8k feet. Steady NW movement of about 30 miles. Can't wait for recon to sample it.

Recon appears to have no interest in doing so...flying NW to the west of it.

[EasternUSWX]

Radar center at 24.8 °N, 83.0 °W, altitude of 8k feet. Steady NW movement of about 30 miles. Can't wait for recon to sample it.

They are heading that way now. There was a wind shift WNW of the last fix but looks sloppy and there was a sensor drop not sure if it will be used for VDM?

[Superstorm93]

Looking better with every frame.

Lightning still present.

I have no idea why recon isn't interested in this.

[turtlehurricane]

Recon appears to have no interest in doing so...flying NW to the west of it.

Well they're not at the latitude of it just yet, I assume if they were going to do it they'd fly a degree or 2 north and then head SE towards it also. Or they could just ignore it and drive everyone mad... but the truth is all you need is radar to know what's happening here so whatever. Eyewall trying to close off now (for some reason I can't upload images unfortunately). This is happening fast.

[Derecho!]

UKMET just shifted west...MS landfall (painfully slowly) now