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Tropical Storm Isaac, Part 2: Isaac Moving Into The Gulf Of Mexico-Hurricane Warnings For Morgan City, LA/MS/AL & FL Panhandle To Destin, FL

Superstorm93

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wxmx

wxmx

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Looks like they're pulling out, 16k feet and climbing. Something must've went wrong.

Yep, though they found the ill defined center at around the same latitude. Also, a 67 and a 73kts SFMR obs, rain contaminated...probably strong updrafts in those cells could be the culprit....

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dan88

dan88

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These 2 sets of observations are from before they pulled out, but came in late

Shows some very heavy convection South of the center, while it looks like the surface and 850mb centers are aligning around 15.7N or 15.8N

191000 1608N 06620W 8430 01529 0042 +179 +174 147012 012 030 000 00
191030 1607N 06622W 8430 01527 0042 +179 +175 142012 013 029 000 00
191100 1606N 06623W 8429 01530 0041 +179 +177 139012 013 026 001 00
191130 1605N 06624W 8429 01528 0042 +170 +170 136012 013 025 000 01
191200 1604N 06625W 8430 01527 0043 +170 +170 132012 013 024 000 01
191230 1603N 06626W 8429 01529 0042 +170 +170 131013 013 022 000 01
191300 1601N 06628W 8429 01530 0043 +170 +170 135013 013 021 000 01
191330 1600N 06629W 8433 01523 0042 +170 +170 138012 013 023 000 01
191400 1559N 06630W 8430 01527 0042 +170 +170 124012 012 020 000 01
191430 1558N 06631W 8429 01526 0041 +170 +170 120011 012 014 000 01
191500 1556N 06632W 8432 01521 0040 +180 +180 120010 013 011 000 01
191530 1555N 06633W 8428 01526 0039 +170 +170 110008 009 007 000 01
191600 1554N 06634W 8430 01523 0040 +174 +174 102007 008 006 000 03
191630 1552N 06634W 8429 01523 0040 +170 +170 098006 007 005 000 01
191700 1550N 06635W 8430 01524 0042 +170 +170 098005 006 007 000 01
191730 1549N 06635W 8429 01525 0043 +170 +170 053003 004 007 000 01
191800 1547N 06635W 8430 01524 0043 +170 +170 006004 004 007 000 01
191830 1545N 06635W 8428 01524 0042 +170 +170 008003 004 003 000 01
191900 1544N 06635W 8429 01523 0041 +170 +170 022004 004 004 001 05
191930 1542N 06635W 8424 01526 0041 +170 +170 014004 005 016 000 01
192000 1540N 06635W 8431 01519 //// +160 //// 013003 006 027 011 01
192030 1539N 06634W 8437 01509 //// +146 //// 341008 013 033 012 01
192100 1537N 06633W 8421 01531 //// +139 //// 251018 023 033 034 01
192130 1536N 06633W 8441 01509 //// +137 //// 214025 029 042 054 05
192200 1535N 06631W 8418 01532 //// +138 //// 208025 032 /// /// 05
192230 1537N 06630W 8429 01516 //// +138 //// 202025 028 067 052 01
192300 1538N 06630W 8422 01529 //// +140 //// 200023 032 073 033 05
192330 1540N 06630W 8443 01513 //// +154 //// 137010 017 057 020 01
192400 1542N 06630W 8393 01565 //// +163 //// 113008 010 030 005 05
192430 1542N 06632W 8077 01886 //// +130 //// 091014 017 025 008 05
192500 1543N 06634W 7717 02268 //// +128 //// 087020 021 /// /// 05
192530 1544N 06636W 7375 02657 //// +108 //// 070016 020 /// /// 05
192600 1545N 06638W 7062 03020 //// +088 //// 073021 023 009 002 01
192630 1545N 06640W 6968 03130 //// +085 //// 078022 023 008 001 01
192700 1546N 06642W 6916 03197 //// +084 //// 078023 025 014 001 01
192730 1547N 06644W 6661 03518 0031 +080 +080 084027 028 014 000 01
192800 1548N 06646W 6408 03840 0033 +060 +060 078026 026 009 001 05
192830 1548N 06648W 6138 04195 0024 +040 +040 067026 026 /// /// 05
192900 1549N 06650W 5842 04571 9989 +020 +020 068030 031 /// /// 05
192930 1550N 06651W 5618 04889 //// -005 //// 065033 035 /// /// 05

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wxmx

wxmx

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Looking at vis loop, there's a strong developing convective complex where they took the high wind speed SFMR readings... more evidence of strong updrafts/downdrafts in the region...and they pulled out exactly after taking those obs... it was probably a very bumpy ride.

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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

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Yep, though they found the ill defined center at around the same latitude. Also, a 67 and a 73kts SFMR obs, rain contaminated...probably strong updrafts in those cells could be the culprit....

Yeah, it looks like they found the center around 15.7N, 66.6W.

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thewxmann

thewxmann

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One thing I would like to add -- the Euro showing such a strong system says more about Isaac's size than strength. This will be a very large system when it gets into the GOM, supported by the fact that it's already large and that its windfield will expand with extended land interaction. If this does end up impacting the northern Gulf Coast, i would expect a storm surge on the order of Ike/Ivan/Rita/up to Katrina depending on how strong Isaac can get, the angle of attack, and storm speed.

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Indystorm

Indystorm

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One thing I would like to add -- the Euro showing such a strong system says more about Isaac's size than strength. This will be a very large system when it gets into the GOM, supported by the fact that it's already large and that its windfield will expand with extended land interaction. If this does end up impacting the northern Gulf Coast, i would expect a storm surge on the order of Ike/Rita/up to Katrina depending on how strong Isaac can get and the angle of attack.

Katrina was one of a kind. I think intensity is extremely important a variable with respect to surge as well as geographical extent of the system. Katrina's surge impacted the Gulf coast to the degree it did because the storm was so large and also because it was a category 5 over the gulf for an extended period. The increased intensity of the latest Euro model does concern me, however, along with the size.

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jasons

jasons

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Katrina was one of a kind. I think intensity is extremely important a variable with respect to surge as well as geographical extent of the system. Katrina's surge impacted the Gulf coast to the degree it did because the storm was so large and also because it was a category 5 over the gulf for an extended period. The increased intensity of the latest Euro model does concern me, however, along with the size.

Katrina wasn't one of a kind. Carla tops the scale factoring both size and windfield:

http://felix.impactweather.com/hsi/hsi.pdf

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thewxmann

thewxmann

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Posted

Katrina was one of a kind. I think intensity is extremely important a variable with respect to surge as well as geographical extent of the system. Katrina's surge impacted the Gulf coast to the degree it did because the storm was so large and also because it was a category 5 over the gulf for an extended period. The increased intensity of the latest Euro model does concern me, however, along with the size.

Actually yeah, I shouldn't have mentioned Katrina, to tone down the hype machine.That's my bad there. I suppose that the storm surge is proportional to some integrated quantity that involves the wind speed distribution in the cyclone. But obviously, the potential is there, and I felt like it ought to be brought up at some point now that the N GOM solution is becoming more likely.

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
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Taking a big step back... The system looks less organized on IR imagery than it did yesterday or last night. Even when recon was having trouble locating a center, it still looked good and had that spectacular outflow pattern. Totally it looks a bit more scrambled, in my opinion.

I highly, highly disagree. Yesterday was a mess with having two distinct, separate convective areas to Isaac, where as today it seems like Isaac is trying to consolidate. It's a rough road, and the weakening is not surprising, but in the end, this will result in a better organised Isaac.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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I highly, highly disagree. Yesterday was a mess with having two distinct, separate convective areas to Isaac, where as today it seems like Isaac is trying to consolidate. It's a rough road, and the weakening is not surprising, but in the end, this will result in a better organised Isaac.

I'm not commenting on the overall organization of the system, I'm talking specifically about the IR presentation. I conceded that the IR presentation isn't necessarily telling the whole story, as it looked awesome yesterday when it had multiple centers.

No question the low level circulation has gotten better organized today. Buoy at 15.05N 67.47W reporting surface pressure of 1004 mb and SW winds around 30 kt.

Ah, cool! So you think the center is near 15N-- not further N?

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phil882

phil882

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Posted

Taking a big step back... The system looks less organized on IR imagery than it did yesterday or last night. Even when recon was having trouble locating a center, it still looked good and had that spectacular outflow pattern. Totally it looks a bit more scrambled, in my opinion.

The circulation has become better defined in the low-levels, but conversely, it still looks like dry air is intruding into the circulation, which is resulting in the degraded satellite appearance. Soundings from the ABC islands in the Netherlands Antilles clearly show dry ari still being advected into the circulation.

2cz26w1.gif

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

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The circulation has become better defined in the low-levels, but conversely, it still looks like dry air is intruding into the circulation, which is resulting in the degraded satellite appearance. Soundings from the ABC islands in the Netherlands Antilles clearly show dry ari still being advected into the circulation.

Yeah, still a pretty obvious feed into the core of the system

GOES20152012236qmdvwB.jpg

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andyhb

andyhb

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Have to disagree. Looks like a healthy number either side of the op. Unless the GFS or other respected model keeps shifting West, and the Euro is no longer the outlier, it'd be hard to argue with an official NHC forecast which will probably at Day 5 be pointed in the general direction MSY to PAM. We'll see official NHC forecast soon enough. Day 5 point will still be offshore, I'd imagine.

West of the FL peninsula, not the OP.

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Scott747

Scott747

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Posted

256 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z THU AUG 30 2012

12Z UPDATE... THE GFS HAS ADJUSTED FASTER WITH EJECTION OF THE ERN

PAC CLOSED LOW THOUGH STILL NOT AS FAST AS OTHER SOLNS. THE 12Z

GFS TREND WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS TO JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKER TREND

WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF TO ALLOW FOR MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF

ISAAC BY DAYS 6-7. THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTEST WITH EJECTION OF THE

ERN PAC SYSTEM SO IN GENERAL A COMPROMISE IS STILL REASONABLE...

THOUGH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FASTER THAN RECENT GFS RUNS

SUPPORTS LOWERING SFC PRESSURES A LITTLE FROM THE PRELIM UPDATE

FOR THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA BY TUE-WED.

EXPECTED TRACK OF ISAAC INTO THE ERN GULF THRU DAY 5 TUE AND INTO

THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HVY/EXCESSIVE

RNFL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/FL AND POSSIBLY EAST COAST

STATES DEPENDING ON HOW FAR MSTR IS PULLED NEWD. THIS RNFL WOULD

EASE LONGER TERM DROUGHT CONDS OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOTE

THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF

ISAAC BY NEXT WED-THU. CONSULT LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS

FOR FURTHER INFO ON ISAAC.

*edit* HPC extended disco

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Interesting tidbit from the 5pm discussion....If this thing survives somewhat intact after Cuba I wonder how strong it could get...CAT3 maybe?

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF

OF MEXICO...AND THE CURRENT 120 HR INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE

IF THE GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS VERIFY."

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