Drz1111 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah and this post CLEARLY needed to be added to make it better... Point taken. To be fair, it was a cry for sympathy. Back on topic - I find it interesting that folks still bandy about the idea of this missing the Greater Antilles. Even without met knowledge, it seems hugely unlikely that this misses out on at least a brief jaunt over "real" land - didn't every permutaiton of the GFS ensemble from the last run take the storm over at least one of Cuba/Hispanola? Running the strait into the Gulf is a longshot even if the cone of uncertainy is centered on the strait- when it's off to the side like now, it's a lotto ticket. (Of course, prior posts today noting that with favorable conditions, storms that aren't totally eviscerated have plenty of time to pull a Charley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 GFS might shoot the Florida straights, the area between Cuba and Fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 GFS is east and heading north at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 obviously wrong with that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Even though they're from Allan's site, can we not post maps that contour MSLP every 2 mb? It makes a cyclone look deeper than it really is and with so many tightly-packed contours it's hard to even read the SLP value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hitting Orlando hard at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Only 6 days out on the GFS, and the 500 mb heights look like it could be left behind by the ridge weakness that let it start coming Northwest, with rather weak steering around it. It could meander a bit until the next polar trough comes along for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Hitting Orlando hard at 144 hours Orlando is inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Only 6 days out on the GFS, and the 500 mb heights look like it could be left behind by the ridge weakness that let it start coming Northwest, with rather weak steering around it. It could meander a bit until the next polar trough comes along for it. I don't know if anyone on these forums would really "like" that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Even though they're from Allan's site, can we not post maps that contour MSLP every 2 mb? It makes a cyclone look deeper than it really is and with so many tightly-packed contours it's hard to even read the SLP value. Why is everyone being so anal in the banter thread? Everyone has been using those maps for years, and I hardly think you not liking them is a reason to not post them. Finally, I don't know what the MSLP is going to be at 126 hours, but I'd bet my house it's not going to be what the GFS is showing. Maybe it's just that I like all the circles. It makes a 975mb depiction on the GFS look like storm of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Why is everyone being so anal in the banter thread? Everyone has been using those maps for years, and I hardly think you not liking them is a reason to not post them. Finally, I don't know what the MSLP is going to be at 126 hours, but I'd bet my house it's not going to be what the GFS is showing. I know, and I've never liked them. No I just think it's deceptive and kinda weenie-ish, that's all. It's not really a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 btw, as a bit of an off-topic reference but as a quick break in the action, this post on twitter from JB (take it for what it's worth). . Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi GFS would mean Rep convention affected, but would miss worst Actually has landfall near el Rushbo's. Would love to ride it out with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 if you don't like it, don't go there. I don't. I rarely go on the cite [sic] these days because my local subforum is such a smoldering crater, but for tropical stuff on the mothership the signal to noise ratio is much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Orlando is inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Orlando would get the worst rains, but the worst winds would obviously be on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wennie rule #1337, do not post JB Tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I know, and I've never liked them. No I just think it's deceptive and kinda weenie-ish, that's all. It's not really a big deal. Fair enough, I'm guilty of being a pretty big tropical weenie. Grew up on the NC coast, always been fascinated by and enjoyed storms despite the mess afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wennie rule #1337, do not post JB Tweets. i figured it was a bit of comic relief before we get to the heart of the storm. my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Knock off the personal attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 i figured it was a bit of comic relief before we get to the heart of the storm. my apologies. I'm cool with it and I believe riptide is, too. He's just referencing the turn of events in here after another post that was just for fun. Some people take "fun" posts a little too seriously in a banter thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Sooo...anyone wanna guess what recon will find? I'm expecting a hot mess of not much, center still exposed to the north, etc. Hope I'm wrong! edit: That band breaking off to the north does give some hope of more organization though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The rain from Isaac reaches SNE on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 i figured it was a bit of comic relief before we get to the heart of the storm. my apologies. I don't attack posters, this was just for lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The rain from Isaac reaches SNE on the GFS. Trending in the right direction, but a LOOOONNNNGGGG way to go, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wennie rule #1337, do not post JB Tweets. This thread created to keep JB comments out of the main thread and because mets who get the forecast right just aren't as entertaining JB Henry Marga****ty, DT and Kmart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Trending in the right direction, but a LOOOONNNNGGGG way to go, It was nice to see the GFS trend east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Fair enough, I'm guilty of being a pretty big tropical weenie. Grew up on the NC coast, always been fascinated by and enjoyed storms despite the mess afterwards. Any stories to tell from Fran? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 This thread created to keep JB comments out of the main thread and because mets who get the forecast right just aren't as entertaining JB Henry Marga****ty, DT and Kmart. You forgot Larry Cosgrove and his CMC. It was nice to see the GFS trend east . it is 6 days out. Keep it in your pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 :wub: :wub: Memories of sustained hurricane force with gusts to 105mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z GGEM at 84 hours has Isaac north of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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