Hugo Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We will see. The Euro has been consistent with a GOM low. We will? The models are right there for you to look at now. No waiting involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I am not changing my unofficially, amateurish and badly drawn MSPaint forecastbefore the 0Z models. A PNS to MSY landfall, while in my yellow cone of uncertainty, doesn't fall into my orange cone of greater certainty now, nor will it be placed there based on a couple of models runs. I probably won't put in an unofficial red cone of high panic before the G-IV data gets initialized into the reliable guidance. VDM suggests a 40 knot storm in 80 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We will? The models are right there for you to look at now. No waiting involved. Yes waiting for all the models to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yes waiting for all the models to agree JMA is up the East Coast of Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Correct. As mentioned they started running them in house last year and shut it down when they started showing up publicly. The goal is to have an official 7 day track within 10 yrs. For now the 7 day error is 400 miles. That's not gonna be easy to reduce error at 7 days, at that range you have big errors even in the large scale circulation, which cascades through all the other scales. Even the 5 day forecast is pretty bad still. IMO it shouldn't be extended anymore since that would increase the cry-wolf syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GOES-14 will be in Super-rapid scan mode until the end of October...hope Isaac takes advantage of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This thread is a trainwreck, you can debate about the track day and night but it's still going to rape somebody, wherever it goes. It doesn't need to be a "Irene part 2" or a "1938 redux". TD Nine Banter ThreadChit-chatty TD Nine Stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Why do I have a feeling this is what may happen..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I see mixed forecasts online. Some are going with an east coast hit and some are going with a gulf hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I see mixed forecasts online. Some are going with an east coast hit and some are going with a gulf hit. And that will probably change 10 times before it gets close enough that we really know. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I see mixed forecasts online. Some are going with an east coast hit and some are going with a gulf hit. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Convection firing up, oddly enough NHC says its still weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Convection firing up, oddly enough NHC says its still weak. Recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 @pdouglasweather More reliable ECMWF model: hurricane reaches Gulf of Mexico by next Friday. Pray this doesn't become another Katrina. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Well wher do Bastardi and Margasity think it's going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Well wher do Bastardi and Margasity think it's going? Bastardi thinks this will be an east coast hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Well wher do Bastardi and Margasity think it's going? My guess is that Bastardi will mention Connie, Diane, Carol, Edna, the early 1950s and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Pretty sure JB thought it was going towards the Carolinas as a Cat 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Pretty sure JB thought it was going towards the Carolinas as a Cat 3... Correct. His son also thinks an east coast hit is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Bastardi thinks this will be an east coast hit Of course he does DT also thinks NHC is on crack and their track is dumb IRENE REPEAT HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Of course he does DT also thinks NHC is on crack and their track is dumb IRENE REPEAT HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 DT thinks everything is on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 DT likes the storm into the GOM says nhc is too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 @pdouglasweather More reliable ECMWF model: hurricane reaches Gulf of Mexico by next Friday. Pray this doesn't become another Katrina. :weenie: Lemme guess... 100 retweets. I got a follower from Maine since I joke tweeted Maine should watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Lemme guess... 100 retweets. I got a follower from Maine since I joke tweeted Maine should watch it. 7. Thankfully, even his 8000+ followers realize he's pandering to emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Lemme guess... 100 retweets. I got a follower from Maine since I joke tweeted Maine should watch it. Maybe Berk will mistake it for a derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is DT barking about an Irene redux or is mapgirl just spouting off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 @pdouglasweather More reliable ECMWF model: hurricane reaches Gulf of Mexico by next Friday. Pray this doesn't become another Katrina. :weenie: Yeah and Invest 96 becomes a cat 5 within 3 days and slams the Yucatan within 9 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Maybe Berk will mistake it for a derecho? Its gonna cause lots of derechos, we are all doomed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Maybe Berk will mistake it for a derecho? Maybe Isaac will spawn 10 of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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