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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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I am not changing my unofficially, amateurish and badly drawn MSPaint forecastbefore the 0Z models. A PNS to MSY landfall, while in my yellow cone of uncertainty, doesn't fall into my orange cone of greater certainty now, nor will it be placed there based on a couple of models runs. I probably won't put in an unofficial red cone of high panic before the G-IV data gets initialized into the reliable guidance.

VDM suggests a 40 knot storm in 80 minutes.

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Correct. As mentioned they started running them in house last year and shut it down when they started showing up publicly. The goal is to have an official 7 day track within 10 yrs. For now the 7 day error is 400 miles.

That's not gonna be easy to reduce error at 7 days, at that range you have big errors even in the large scale circulation, which cascades through all the other scales. Even the 5 day forecast is pretty bad still. IMO it shouldn't be extended anymore since that would increase the cry-wolf syndrome.

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@pdouglasweather More reliable ECMWF model: hurricane reaches Gulf of Mexico by next Friday. Pray this doesn't become another Katrina.

:axe: :weenie: :weenie: :weenie: :axe:

Lemme guess... 100 retweets.

I got a follower from Maine since I joke tweeted Maine should watch it.

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