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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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04Z Updated: SmartCast currently tracking Boothville, as the highest threat area. Currently forecasting winds to increase to 35-45 though 10Z, increasing to 50-60mph through 16Z, then periods of high winds up to 80mph through 29th/04Z. Heavy rains will being pushing in around 14Z lasting through 04Z. Rainfall accumulations of 3.4” through 29th at 04Z. Keesler, New Orleans, Gulfport seeing similar wind conditions with peak winds around 70mph across these areas and rainfall accumulations through 04Z will be between 1.7” and 3.1”. Areas across the Pensacola, Mobile and Slidell areas, seeking wind up to 58mph through 04Z.

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Lessons learned. If the inner core is spread out like rita, it's not going to go through RI. Why do you think Rita only made it to 989.5 mb despite favorable conditions? You mean it's not like I miss read pressures on weather maps?

I think people got it the first time.

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No sure I've ever seen anything like it, actually, other a few names that I scarcely care to mention.

I'll go ahead and mention Fay.

Never seen anything like this; to be honest, I'm not so sure it'll make hurricane status anymore, which speaks volumes about how wrong all of us really were. Still so much to be learned...

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I want to know why every hurricane affecting the US either is a giant lumbering mess or a poofycane of late. Government trickery.

edit: I guess I should put hurricane in quotes for now

I have a theory that it's because atmospheric instability has been below average the past few years across the Tropical Atlantic. It was well below average in the GOM prior to Isaac's entrance. Just from personal observation, higher instability values correlate to tighter cores/smaller eyes. Perhaps the lower instability values make it harder for inner cores to consolidate after a disruption?

(I mean, not to mention, practically the entire U.S. is experiencing drought, so it's not surprising to see some of that dry air entrain into Isaac's large circulation.)

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I'll go ahead and mention Fay.

Never seen anything like this; to be honest, I'm not so sure it'll make hurricane status anymore, which speaks volumes about how wrong all of us really were. Still so much to be learned...

If it were a 75 mph or 80 mph hurricane would you feel the same way?

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uneven structure combined with slow movement is going to result in a uneven rainfall distribution, but likely means someone is getting a lot of water if banding sets up shop over them.I think freshwater flooding is N.O. bigger concern IMHO. even if is crawls along the coast just offshore they could still get training banding if they get unlucky.
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10Z Update: I am currently tracking Several Cities in the high threat dangers. Boothville- looking for wind to gust up to 50mph from 12Z, then gusts up to 60mph around 23Z, then wind gusts up around 80mph from 29th at 07Z onward. Seeing a couple of heavy periods of rain, 17Z-01Z, and 09Z-14Z. Rainfall accumulations of 3.43” through 29/10Z. Mobile and Keesler area looking at winds 35-45 through 21Z, then increasing 60-70mph 00Z-10Z, with peak gusts around 75mph. New Orleans area tracking winds increasing to 35-45 from 14Z to 23Z, then increasing to 50-60 past 23Z, peak winds looking at 64mph right now. Looking at 4.4” of rain accumulation through 29th at 10Z. Matrix uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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