MJO812 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 So does NHC, this isn't new news. This is news to me because I just got home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 This is news to me because I just got home from work. So because you're hours behind on everything you decide to share your conclusions with the rest of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The angle of approach is almost identical to Betsy in 1965, but this may actually make an even closer pass to NO. I believe Betsy was on a weakening trend as it approached the coast and I'm not sure how large it was. Regardless of exact landfall intensity, from a damage/disruption perspective, this could be one of those storms where people are like "that was only a Cat X?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The angle of approach is almost identical to Betsy in 1965, but this may actually make an even closer pass to NO. I believe Betsy was on a weakening trend as it approached the coast and I'm not sure how large it was... I'm relatively certain that Betsy was a smaller storm... Dennislike in tropical storm force wind fields (not hurricane). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Tom, Great points listed above. The flooding rain threat and the levee breaching kinda go hand in hand I would assume? What's your thoughts in storm surge? I'm thinking it's not gonna be as "quick", but a slowing TC with the center passing just west of NO could mean a persistent onshore flow into the area, which could be an issue. I'm no expert though My captain at work has a sister in law that just moved I Gretna, La (bout 10 mins south of Nawlins on the south side of the MS river.. I'll do my best to give some updates from that position. So far, it's only voluntary evacuations. Obviously, I'm not Tom, but I figured I'd share what I know. With much of NOLA below sea level, the rainwater that falls must be pumped out of the city to a higher elevation, which might be into the Mississippi, Lake Pontch, or elswhere. The issue about that, from what I've heard, is whether or not the pumps are up to the task. The other thing to consider is that the Mississippi will rise due to all the drainage from upstream. That could cause it to rise and potentially breech levees. I don't know what, if anything, has been done about preventing storm surge from coming from the GoM up canals and/or the Mississippi since Katrina, but that apparently was a problem in 2005, but that has relatively nothing to do with rainfall. There are, I believe, supposed to be locks that get closed to stop the Gulf from coming up the canals and the river. Rainfall shouldn't have anything to do with Lake Pontch rising, because that is at sea level and is directly connected to the Gulf, but there is no way to keep the level from getting too high in the lake, especially if the winds are from the SE and funnel the surge right into the lake from that direction. Katrina did not send SE'ly wind-driven surge into the lake, but the surge was surely FAR higher than what Isaac will produce anyway. Katrina was a bad track for NOLA in the sense that the eye tracked east of the city, which caused the water to push west into the lake and then drain back towards the city as the eye passed by to the east on a north wind. If the eye tracks west of the city, the surge wouldn't necessarily drain back into the city as the wind trajectory would be SE, S, SW, W as the eye lifted northward. The concern I have with this is if Isaac takes a track just west of NOLA and stalls or moves very slowly, which many of the models project (especially if it is a Euro type track where it moves northward just west of the city). Rain itself could be a bigger flood issue than coastal flooding from surge simply from the basin NOLA lies in getting flooded on its own...although surge is definitely going to be a problem for the parishes down along the coast. A GFS track wouldn't be *as* bad as the surge would push to the west shore of Pontch first and then push around to the north shore and eventually back towards Lake Bourne as the wind veered to the west in time. It also might keep the rainfall threat down a touch compared to something like the EC as the storm would track to the WNW and away from the city a bit faster than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Man, Just when you think he's tarting to ramp up, and pow! Northern eyewall area erodes a bit. Would post say image, but on my iPhone, being lazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 There is sure a lot of HRRR love going on. As much as I've seen that model suck it's at least mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The last several frames of high res IR clearly show a jog to the NE. There was mention in the pinned thread of the ridge breaking down over GA and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There is sure a lot of HRRR love going on. As much as I've seen that model suck it's at least mildly interesting. Certainly will be interesting to see how HRRR does tonight I am hoping this system brings some rain into this region. Extreme drought all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The last several frames of high res IR clearly show a jog to the NE. There was mention in the pinned thread of the ridge breaking down over GA and NC. Visible is what you want to use to follow its path. IR can be very deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://w1.weather.go...&threat=coastal Someone posted this in the main thread, does anyone know how often it updates? Pretty dire predictions from 10 hours ago for the SE LA coast/Lake Pontchatrain areas, curious to see how those predictions evolve as Isaac does... Well, the answer presented itself as it updated at 22z (thanks for all the responses). More coastal areas and LP in the extreme and high range, with the worst outlooks still calling for 15-20 foot surge. I'm not sure if this info is relied upon at all, but it doesn't quite line up with the latest HLS discussion... LAZ040-058>068-072-282300- /O.CON.KLIX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ ST. TAMMANY-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES- UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD- UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA- 555 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012 ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 9 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES...RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Just good to see Isaac finally shed the stationary band along the E FL coast. Will at least give it the potential to tighten up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 cool site from google http://google.org/crisismap/2012-tropical-system-isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 cool site from google http://google.org/crisismap/2012-tropical-system-isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Still don't get why I see the HRRR so much. I'd post in the other thread but the quality wishcasting is too quality to step in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Still don't get why I see the HRRR so much. I'd post in the other thread but the quality wishcasting is too quality to step in. DID YOU SEE THE EYE?!!1!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 For a Cape Verde type topical system, Isaac has been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 DID YOU SEE THE EYE?!!1!? We need a little more NorEaster27 in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 WeatherBrains talking about the storm: http://live.bigbrainsmedia.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I wonder if we are approaching a record for longest time period between being named a tropical storm and yet to be classified hurricane, approaching 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Watching New Orleans WDSU showing Isaac with street view - they are showing exactly where the little icon/Isaac will track - STREET level. heh Direct TV is broadcasting Louisiana television stations - on their INFO channel. That is channel 325 here at my place. Interesting to listen in on the local coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would just like to say that the shear "did not go away over time". The dry air "did not get "mixed" out of the system". And for everyone making fun of those two circles, i could not find the site for that graphic so i took a snapshot of frank strait's. Yes it has circles, but it was not drawn by me. Anyways right now the storm still looks like a mess. Yes, the pressure has gone down and wind has gone up a tad, but it is not in any shape or form gonna be a hurricane Katrina like some were calling for 2-3 days ago. it's not even a hurricane yet and we are about a day away from landfall. this will be at most a category 1 hurricane, if that. I'm just shocked that I would be only allowed to post 1 time a day for posting banter in banter. Sounds like "someone" wanted to continue hyping this. below is the images i posted last night. edit: I'm not going to be posting on here till my 1 post a day limit has been removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I want to know why every hurricane affecting the US either is a giant lumbering mess or a poofycane of late. Government trickery. edit: I guess I should put hurricane in quotes for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would just like to say that the shear "did not go away over time". The dry air "did not get "mixed" out of the system". And for everyone making fun of those two circles, i could not find the site for that graphic so i took a snapshot of frank strait's. Yes it has circles, but it was not drawn by me. Anyways right now the storm still looks like a mess. Yes, the pressure has gone down and wind has gone up a tad, but it is not in any shape or form gonna be a hurricane Katrina like some were calling for 2-3 days ago. it's not even a hurricane yet and we are about a day away from landfall. this will be at most a category 1 hurricane, if that. I'm just shocked that I would be only allowed to post 1 time a day for posting banter in banter. Sounds like "someone" wanted to continue hyping this. below is the images i posted last night. Who called for it to be another Katrina? And who is "someone"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I want to know why every hurricane affecting the US either is a giant lumbering mess or a poofycane of late. Government trickery. edit: I guess I should put hurricane in quotes for now don't encourage the HAARP crowd!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would just like to say that the shear "did not go away over time". The dry air "did not get "mixed" out of the system". And for everyone making fun of those two circles, i could not find the site for that graphic so i took a snapshot of frank strait's. Yes it has circles, but it was not drawn by me. Anyways right now the storm still looks like a mess. Yes, the pressure has gone down and wind has gone up a tad, but it is not in any shape or form gonna be a hurricane Katrina like some were calling for 2-3 days ago. it's not even a hurricane yet and we are about a day away from landfall. this will be at most a category 1 hurricane, if that. I'm just shocked that I would be only allowed to post 1 time a day for posting banter in banter. Sounds like "someone" wanted to continue hyping this. below is the images i posted last night. edit: I'm not going to be posting on here till my 1 post a day limit has been removed. you were 1 posted? well you were not wrong with your assesment it seems, dry air and shear, but I still don't think anyone said anything about Katrina, at least any respectable met/weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would just like to say that the shear "did not go away over time". The dry air "did not get "mixed" out of the system". And for everyone making fun of those two circles, i could not find the site for that graphic so i took a snapshot of frank strait's. Yes it has circles, but it was not drawn by me.Anyways right now the storm still looks like a mess. Yes, the pressure has gone down and wind has gone up a tad, but it is not in any shape or form gonna be a hurricane Katrina like some were calling for 2-3 days ago. it's not even a hurricane yet and we are about a day away from landfall. this will be at most a category 1 hurricane, if that. I'm just shocked that I would be only allowed to post 1 time a day for posting banter in banter. Sounds like "someone" wanted to continue hyping this. below is the images i posted last night. edit: I'm not going to be posting on here till my 1 post a day limit has been removed. Not one person on this forum said this would be another Katrina. Have fun trying to find it. And I wouldn't be so fast in patting yourself on the back either. Pouting like a frigging 2 year old won't get you back to normal posting privileges either. And you'll be doing this forum a favor by not posting anymore, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Not one person on this forum said this would be another Katrina. Have fun trying to find it. And I wouldn't be so fast in patting yourself on the back either. Pouting like a frigging 2 year old won't get you back to normal posting privileges either. And you'll be doing this forum a favor by not posting anymore, thanks. No.. but many went to the high end of any model forecast and continued to call for RI too much. But I guess it's the norm for discussions here to focus 80% on the positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 No.. but many went to the high end of any model forecast and continued to call for RI too much. But I guess it's the norm for discussions here to focus 80% on the positives. That I agree with, but that happens with every single storm there is on this forum, snow, tropical, etc., that shows crazy solutions like were shown earlier this week. It's not some conspiracy theory like this guy is trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 How's JB's worse than Katrina drudge report doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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