Akeem the African Dream Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Winds managed to gust to 52mph in one of the outer squalls this morning in Orlando. Heavy rain has now moved out of the metro area for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 FWIW- winds are starting to die down now in West Palm Beach. Perhaps he's finally contracting his wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Palm Beach County just needs that pesky rainband to move away. Getting significant flooding in that area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 i know its very nearly impossible but is there a remote chance of this cane doing a wilma - explosively intensify into a cat 5? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 no. curious, why? none of us 100% understand canes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 curious, why? none of us 100% understand canes ... Water temps aren't nearly as conducive and there is some light shear. It's an entirely different setup if I understand correctly. It doesn't take a lot to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 curious, why? none of us 100% understand canes We understand it enough that it won't do what you suggest. It may go through an RI phase to reach category 3, with a far far outside shot of minimal category 4 status... but it's not going to explosively intensify like Wilma. The environmental factors are just not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 There's not nearly the oceanic heat potential here as in the NW caribbean and this storm doesn't have the kind of inner-core that Wilma did. Frankly, Wilma was truely a one-of-a-kind with it's rate of intensification but it occured in an area that has historically been favorable to RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 curious, why? none of us 100% understand canes There's only so much potential heat energy available to a storm in a given location, and then you must subtract negative factors such as shear, dry air intrusion, land interaction, etc. Wilma had no negative factors inhibiting her, and she was over bath water with excellent core structure. She exploded. Isaac has had some land interaction which disrupted his core structure as well as some shear and dry air. He is now on a better path, but even so, his potential energy from the ocean is much less than what Wilma had, and his surrounding environment is still less stellar than hers. The short answer is NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 curious, why? none of us 100% understand canes So many factors have to come together perfectly to allow a storm to become a category 5. This storm isn't even close. We would simply need a wilma rate of intensification over the next 24 hours, and that simply isn't possible in this current environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The gulf is not favorable at all right now. Too much shear, temps suck. I would be surprised if it made it to high-end 2 before landfall. The satellite profile is terrible, too disorganized, not enough upper level outflow even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The gulf is not favorable at all right now. Too much shear, temps suck. I would be surprised if it made it to high-end 2 before landfall. The satellite profile is terrible, too disorganized, not enough upper level outflow even. Yeah, the temperatures in the GOM really suck right now. Mid-80s are awful. You expect it to strength 2-3 categories to a high-end Cat 2 yet nothing is favorable? Give me a break. http://www.nodc.noaa.../egof_tmap.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Why would you want it to get organized? There's several million people in the path of this thing. I know we all love weather and like to see these systems grow and contract etc. But I wouldn't be rooting for this thing to come on shore as a strengthening hurricane. Lots of lives and property at stake. Keep that in mind. Seeing as you are new here, this has been gone over and over....storm after storm.... It's been reconciled within the community of weather enthusiasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Yeah, the temperatures in the GOM really suck right now. Mid-80s are awful. You expect it to strength 2-3 categories to a high-end Cat 2 yet nothing is favorable? Give me a break. http://www.nodc.noaa.../egof_tmap.html This thread is terrible. I've come to decide that all posts in this thread are for entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 This thread is terrible. I've come to decide that all posts in this thread are for entertainment purposes only. Exactly. That last post about how the "temps suck" gave me some laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 This thread is terrible. I've come to decide that all posts in this thread are for entertainment purposes only. I think what happened is as the storm continued to fizzle the posts in the main thread got crappier today. As a result, the good banter posters were now crappy posters in the main thread, and only the true garbage ended up in the banter thread. That's my theory anyway. Moving onto the storm, I was wondering if any of the dynamics that cause storms to ride up the east coast would cause Isaac to maybe ride the LA coast and make it to Texas? (I'm aware the dynamics of trough v. ridge are completely different...but maybe they share some similarities?) I have just seen maybe a few more ensemble members leak towards Texas today and started wondering if that was a real possibility or not. While I'm asking stupid questions should the NHC pull the trigger on the big H following that 74 kt. FL wind? Should motivating the people on the gulf coast to prepare more be a factor in whether they decide to or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I think what happened is as the storm continued to fizzle the posts in the main thread got crappier today. As a result, the good banter posters were now crappy posters in the main thread, and only the true garbage ended up in the banter thread. That's my theory anyway. See, this is part of the problem. What part of all of the constant current observations makes you in any way believe that the storm has "fizzled" today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 This thread is terrible. I've come to decide that all posts in this thread are for entertainment purposes only. cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 NHC has done a pretty great job overall. I love storms that leave the eternally optimistic 90% of forecasters scratching their head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 See, this is part of the problem. What part of all of the constant current observations makes you in any way believe that the storm has "fizzled" today? That is what you picked out of my post? Very well, I guess I didn't mean fizzle, more like sputter, struggle, etc. My point is that people in general, and some red taggers on this board in particular, seem less interested by this storm today than they were yesterday. I assumed it was because of the lack of intensification but maybe there is another reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 That is what you picked out of my post? Very well, I guess I didn't mean fizzle, more like sputter, struggle, etc. My point is that people in general, and some red taggers on this board in particular, seem less interested by this storm today than they were yesterday. I assumed it was because of the lack of intensification but maybe there is another reason. Around this time yesterday, people were thinking major hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Now that this possibility has diminished, people are naturally less interested. Of course, impacts will still be severe -- on the order of Gustav. I suppose the crappy post quality today is a natural extension of the frustration that after 1.5 weeks of looking like a potential major hurricane, Isaac may only end up being a Cat 1-2 around landfall, and only for a ~24 hours before coming ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 http://w1.weather.go...&threat=coastal Someone posted this in the main thread, does anyone know how often it updates? Pretty dire predictions from 10 hours ago for the SE LA coast/Lake Pontchatrain areas, curious to see how those predictions evolve as Isaac does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 20Z Update: I am currently tracking Boothville, LA as my highest threat area this hour. Right now looking at winds to pick up after 03Z to 35-40mph, then above 50mph after 09Z, then peaking around 70-75mph from 16Z-19Z time frame. In addition, heavy rainfall will start 12Z through 20Z, with rainfall rates .28” per hour for several hours. Tracking 3.0” through 28th at 20Z. In addition areas around Houma Terrebonne, New Orleans, Gulfport looking at winds up to 50mph in the same time frame. Also tracking areas across coast from Florida to Gulfport with Thunderstorms with convective gust around 55-60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 True but one would think that those 73kt FL winds should mix to the surface soon especally with pressures dropping. Should go up to at least 70mph at 5 , though I'm wondering if theyll upgrade it to hurricame status just because the public may take it a little more serious than a TS although were not exactly at the point of LF yet either. Time will tell. (from the main thread but I figured my point was banter) -- we should scrap TS and Hurricane and just call everything Tropical Cyclones...there isn't a significant difference between a 75 mph minimal hurricane a 70 mph tropical storm, yet we worry about the designation like it's some magic barrier. In reality, a large 70 mph tropical storm is likely going to cause more of a geographic impact from a wind/water standpoint than a Charley sized cat 1. Around this time yesterday, people were thinking major hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Now that this possibility has diminished, people are naturally less interested. Of course, impacts will still be severe -- on the order of Gustav. I suppose the crappy post quality today is a natural extension of the frustration that after 1.5 weeks of looking like a potential major hurricane, Isaac may only end up being a Cat 1-2 around landfall, and only for a ~24 hours before coming ashore. ...and the bigger story will be the very slow movement once inland. Flooding from rain may be a bigger issue than levees breaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 981mb, 70 mph at 5pm advisory. Now forecasting Cat 2 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Tom, Great points listed above. The flooding rain threat and the levee breaching kinda go hand in hand I would assume? What's your thoughts in storm surge? I'm thinking it's not gonna be as "quick", but a slowing TC with the center passing just west of NO could mean a persistent onshore flow into the area, which could be an issue. I'm no expert though My captain at work has a sister in law that just moved I Gretna, La (bout 10 mins south of Nawlins on the south side of the MS river.. I'll do my best to give some updates from that position. So far, it's only voluntary evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Just watched TWC. The hurricane expert expects Isaac to be a Cat 2 by the time it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXTransplant Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Is this a case similar to Ike (not in strength) where the surge potential could be higher than that of a Cat 1/2 storm? Didn't they develop a different scale to include surge potential after Ike? People might be focused on wind, where flooding might be a bigger issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Just watched TWC. The hurricane expert expects Isaac to be a Cat 2 by the time it makes landfall. So does NHC, this isn't new news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Tom, What's your thoughts in storm surge? Obviously, I'm not Tom, but I figured I'd share what I know. With much of NOLA below sea level, the rainwater that falls must be pumped out of the city to a higher elevation, which might be into the Mississippi, Lake Pontch, or elswhere. The issue about that, from what I've heard, is whether or not the pumps are up to the task. The other thing to consider is that the Mississippi will rise due to all the drainage from upstream. That could cause it to rise and potentially breech levees. I don't know what, if anything, has been done about preventing storm surge from coming from the GoM up canals and/or the Mississippi since Katrina, but that apparently was a problem in 2005, but that has relatively nothing to do with rainfall. There are, I believe, supposed to be locks that get closed to stop the Gulf from coming up the canals and the river. Rainfall shouldn't have anything to do with Lake Pontch rising, because that is at sea level and is directly connected to the Gulf, but there is no way to keep the level from getting too high in the lake, especially if the winds are from the SE and funnel the surge right into the lake from that direction. Katrina did not send SE'ly wind-driven surge into the lake, but the surge was surely FAR higher than what Isaac will produce anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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