Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nope. Every potentially interesting weather system is going to SNE. That's the way it was back on Storm97 and that's the way it will always be. great place to live if you love weather like I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It might be a SNE threat, of course after landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast and then running Northeastward in land. The threat would be heavy rain and that is about it... None of these EC/SNE pipe dream landfalls that the CMC keep pumping out. The pattern is not favorable for anything like that. It would be nice if this came far enough west to affect some of the areas in bad drought but I guess that is not the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For the CLP5 of course, and the XTRP. XTRP = Xtreme Tropical Prediction Haha! Brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nope. Every potentially interesting weather system is going to SNE. That's the way it was back on Storm97 and that's the way it will always be. Why is SNE even mentioned...because someone from that forum posted about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 These types of discussion places have always focused on low probability events like they are possible with every storm. The difference is now that speculation is also part of the mainstream dialogue. I can't wait till NHC starts the 7 day. Seven day has been running behind the scenes since last year. Stopped it for awhile when the 'public' found access to it but has started up again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Seven day has been running behind the scenes since last year. Stopped it for awhile when the 'public' found access to it but has started up again this year. Meant publicly.. did hear talk from NHC about it at conferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It might be a SNE threat, of course after landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast and then running Northeastward in land. The threat would be heavy rain and that is about it... None of these EC/SNE pipe dream landfalls that the CMC keep pumping out. The pattern is not favorable for anything like that. Donna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 These types of discussion places have always focused on low probability events like they are possible with every storm. The difference is now that speculation is also part of the mainstream dialogue. I can't wait till NHC starts the 7 day. What does the Accuwx 25 day forecast say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It might be a SNE threat, of course after landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast and then running Northeastward in land. The threat would be heavy rain and that is about it... None of these EC/SNE pipe dream landfalls that the CMC keep pumping out. The pattern is not favorable for anything like that. yeap, eastern gulf and heavy rain up the coast at this point, but those islands are going to hurt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Meant publicly.. did hear talk from NHC about it at conferences. Correct. As mentioned they started running them in house last year and shut it down when they started showing up publicly. The goal is to have an official 7 day track within 10 yrs. For now the 7 day error is 400 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nope. Every potentially interesting weather system is going to SNE. That's the way it was back on Storm97 and that's the way it will always be. To be pedantic Storm97 was a 90% Florida-based board, and other than the infamous PAUK, EVERY storm was the next Andrew (especially if it was a sheared CV tropical storm) and EVERY storm was "building its own ridge to the north" and would start moving West, even if it had already recurved and was HEADING north (as I was repeatedly told on Storm97 about Erika of that year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nope. Every potentially interesting weather system is going to SNE. That's the way it was back on Storm97 and that's the way it will always be. We are a 'cane magnet...heck, we are a typhoon magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We are a 'cane magnet...heck, we are a typhoon magnet At least you can make of it, instead of take offense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We are a 'cane magnet...heck, we are a typhoon magnet When I lived in Japan I could not get a typhoon to recurve and hit Tokyo.. so annoying.. when I left the next year they got hit by 5+ in one year. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At least you can make of it, instead of take offense This season (and the previous 16) we have had lots of mugginess... but no tropical action. I did see some tropical action in the Bahamas in 1996. I blame my wife for choosing our honeymoon destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 When I lived in Japan I could not get a typhoon to recurve and hit Tokyo.. so annoying.. when I left the next year they got hit by 5+ in one year. WTF. So we can blame you? Did you live outside of SNE in 1938? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So we can blame you? Did you live outside of SNE in 1938? no no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At least you can make of it, inYstead of take offense No offense taken, just don't need more board drama. Well maybe we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I wonder if this is gonna be another Fay with a weak system pestering southern florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Does the Euro have it all falling apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This season (and the previous 16) we have had lots of mugginess... but no tropical action. I did see some tropical action in the Bahamas in 1996. I blame my wife for choosing our honeymoon destination. I don't even want a landfall, just the rains following it. Irene last year was a b**ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Does the Euro have it all falling apart? yes but there is still plenty of time for 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 yes but there is still plenty of time for 1938 It can make a loop after giving Josh a YP landfall, buzz east over FL, then head north, scraping every subforum along the coast on the way. Ends up in Poland Anyway, looks kinda meh on that model south of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It can make a loop after giving Josh a YP landfall, buzz east over FL, then head north, scraping every subforum along the coast on the way. Ends up in Poland Anyway, looks kinda meh on that model south of Cuba That would be hilarious if it did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Does the Euro have it all falling apart? n gom disastercane -- as long as it's not falling apart like they tend to do up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro vs the rest of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro vs the rest of the models Not really. The GEFS shifted substantially westward at 12z, the ECMWF is certainly not alone. In fact its the GGEM that doesn't have much model support at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oil prices FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Not really. The GEFS shifted substantially westward at 12z, the ECMWF is certainly not alone. In fact its the GGEM that doesn't have much model support at this time. We will see. The Euro has been consistent with a GOM low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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