Rib Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I'm preparing for Isaac to affect me here in Philly in about a week. Once it makes landfall it will head north and then head east. I could see thunderstorms from it. Evacuations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I'm preparing for Isaac to affect me here in Philly in about a week. Once it makes landfall it will head north and then head east. I could see thunderstorms from it. Evacuations? I'd start running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I'm preparing for Isaac to affect me here in Philly in about a week. Once it makes landfall it will head north and then head east. I could see thunderstorms from it. Evacuations? Evacuations for what? Rain showers? At this rate Isaac may not even be a decent hurricane. One of the sorriest tropical systems I've ever followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Glad Superstorm didn't make the new thread...no offense but that may have been the worst tropical storm mojo ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Lots of hype over Isaac. I guess because we haven't really had any big huricanes this season and it could hit New Orleans. Have to wait and see if it gets stronger and is all hype or really something to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Try as he might, but I think the shear to the South and the dry air to the East is going to impede Isaac from becoming anything really to write home about. IF he gets to Cat. 1, I think he'll stay there. He's running out of real estate in the GoM to really do anything with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hopefully these inhibiting effects remain in place and we can avoid any significant damage, particularly with such a dangerous path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hopefully these inhibiting effects remain in place and we can avoid any significant damage, particularly with such a dangerous path... I agree. A storm of this path could have a magnitude effect on millions of lives, especially as it strengthens. Good luck LA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Try as he might, but I think the shear to the South and the dry air to the East is going to impede Isaac from becoming anything really to write home about. IF he gets to Cat. 1, I think he'll stay there. He's running out of real estate in the GoM to really do anything with. Lots of moisture advecting into that dry air. Notice the close proximity of much higher dewpoints. I thinl it probably mixes out largely before Isaac can ingest it. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Still a tropical storm ... *shocker* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 What the heck is going on in West Palm Beach? Winds are still gusting up to 40 mph and they cancelled all schools early this morning after they announced last night they'd be open. It may have been a "non-event" for most of South Florida, but that is not the case in Palm Beach County where it is raining yet again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Let's not forget that Katrina actually made landfall East of New Orleans, a track to the west or over New Orleans itself could result in a longer period of onshore winds. Even though Katrina was a very powerful 125mph, 927mb major hurricane at landfall, as devistating of a storm as it was, it could have been worse if New Orleans was in the eastern eye wall instead of the western eyewall. Predicting a Katrina redux is just plain ignorant at this point, but I can't help to think that some of the intensity forecasts are underdone given the very warm gulf waters ahead and ample time to strengthen. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR AS 150 MILES INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. SEE INLAND HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET...NEAR THE TOPS OF THE LEVEES...IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Tornado warning includes UCF campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Well, if Isaac doesn't work out, there's always Joyce. Jesting, because this is the 6Z GFS at 300+ hours - but - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Well, if Isaac doesn't work out, there's always Joyce. Jesting, because this is the 6Z GFS at 300+ hours - but - We already had Joyce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I'm preparing for Isaac to affect me here in Philly in about a week. Once it makes landfall it will head north and then head east. I could see thunderstorms from it. Evacuations?. I hope you have a plan and some batteries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 We already had Joyce. Kirk, then. Whatevs. Serious point was that it is still only August, and there's clearly a different synoptic pattern than last couple of years where it sometimes seemed as if there was a 'tropical storm shield' over the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I think many of the people posting in this thread need to remember that there isn't necessarily a cause for everything the cyclone does. There's a ton of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning in this thread, mostly not supported by rigorous thought. I.e., there's an upper low - if the storm had intensified, it would be "helping it ventilate". Storm doesn't intensify its, "in the way". Not everything has a cause. Repeat that to yourself, because its important in the earth sciences. There are multiple "solutions" to the initial conditions that the cyclone faces - i.e., there's a distribution of potential outcomes and sometimes the storm will be below or above the mean expected outcome. Its noise, not signal. I only have a BS, and didn't start a PhD on paleo-ocean climatology, or whatever, but I have to take issue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 13Z Update: My forecast output is tracking the area around Boothville, LA getting the first impacts of Isaac. Looking at winds to increase around 30-35mph from 03Z to 09Z, then increasing to 55-60mph from 11Z onward. Other locations, such as the New Orleans seeing wind increasing to around 35mph after 12z, then showing a steadly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Decided not to chase since Isaac still isn't strengthening and it's heading towards the MS river delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I do too...I don't think "everything doesn't have a cause" and "we have no clue what caused this" are the same thing. If nothing else this storm has reminded everyone (pros already remembered I'm sure) that intensity forecasting is borderline voodoo. The NHC got crushed by the SHIPS Decay model last year, and the 3 year average is about a 10% improvement. Some storms seem to completely ignore certain features and others are crippled by the exact same thing and try and we may we cannot predict it ahead of time. In the post-analysis it can seem easy to explain why this storm strengthened and this one didn't, but then we try to apply those lessons to the next one and at best they are a rough sketch of possibilities. We need research to understand them better, and every storm with a bunch of airplanes flying through it is a chance to learn more. Maybe I didn't need to post this, but after reading "why isn't it strengthening" for a week I'm starting to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Blessed be the mod who edited the main thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hopefully these inhibiting effects remain in place and we can avoid any significant damage, particularly with such a dangerous path... 100% this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I wonder how the news will handle it if this never becomes a hurricane after all the hype. Learn from their mistakes and take it slower next time? Pretend it didn't happen and hype the minimal impact? I gotta feeling I know which one will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 12z GFS still forecasting some impressive intensification right up until landfall. It shows a much different system in 36 hours than we currently have. Doing some nowcasting...the southern side of the storm is healthier than yesterday for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Well it looks like there will be a lot more wind inside the stadium in Tampa as compared to outside. I wonder was the storm prevented from hitting there by a legitimate subtropical ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I wonder how the news will handle it if this never becomes a hurricane after all the hype. Learn from their mistakes and take it slower next time? Pretend it didn't happen and hype the minimal impact? I gotta feeling I know which one will happen. We don't really have news on TV anymore, we have TV shows. I haven't seen the numbers but I imagine channels like TWC have experienced soaring ratings the last couple days. So, they did their job perfectly. Additionally various online sites have, I'm sure, driven their traffic up substantially in the past few days. So, they accomplished their goals as well. It is a good thing that we have a government agency populated by very smart people that does weather forecasting. I also appreciate the large number of local mets that take their job seriously. Although their skill varies, from what I see most local mets do all they can to provide the best forecast they can. While we're at it, I'm thankful for this forum where I can read a sampling of the best meteorologists explaining the situation and giving detailed scenarios you just can't find anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I wonder how the news will handle it if this never becomes a hurricane after all the hype. Learn from their mistakes and take it slower next time? Pretend it didn't happen and hype the minimal impact? I gotta feeling I know which one will happen. The gazelle (public) always return to the watering hole after the lion (media) has been there feasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 TWC just said hurricane force winds were just found in the NE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 14.25 inches of rain between now and Thursday 7 pm CDT at MSY per 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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