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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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That storm is getting better ventilation for its N/NE/SE outflow. I'm waiting for the southern and southwestern side to begin to move away from having so much land influence. I wouldn't be surprise if some intensification doesn't begin to occur in the next 6 hours.

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Latest NWS forecast for Orleans parish/New Orleans area

MONDAY NIGHT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

TUESDAY

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH INCREASING TO 45 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

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Amazing that Isaac has been around for nearly 144 hours as a classifiable system, and it has yet to become a hurricane.

Which is bad news for the gulf coast. Because all of the inhibiting factors that isaac went through in the past 7 days will be gone.

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It must certainly be nerve wracking for emergency management officials to have this much uncertainty regarding storm track and particularly intensity per landfall. The hurricane warning covers a wide area to account for the two differing main model solutions at present. Hopefully this can be refined with the 00z model runs. But intensity is another question. If RI occurs close to the coast there will be limited time for evacuations. Not offering criticism of NHC by any means. Just concerned about the practicalities of moving many people who might not have the means to get out of NOLA, for example, if mandatory evacuation becomes necessary.

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It must certainly be nerve wracking for emergency management officials to have this much uncertainty regarding storm track and particularly intensity per landfall. The hurricane warning covers a wide area to account for the two differing main model solutions at present. Hopefully this can be refined with the 00z model runs. But intensity is another question. If RI occurs close to the coast there will be limited time for evacuations. Not offering criticism of NHC by any means. Just concerned about the practicalities of moving many people who might not have the means to get out of NOLA, for example, if mandatory evacuation becomes necessary.

Nerve wracking is right. It is easy to say you plan to do all these things before a storm but they all cost money and if the storm doesn't hit you may have "wasted" a lot of already limited budgets. There are also the considerations for local business in some of these tourist areas of declaring an evacuation which sends off all of their customers and hurts their income for the month or even year. Emergency Managers rarely have the authority to order evacuations since that is generally reserved to the lead political official to do. The EM just gets with the local NWS Mets and they give their best opinion and hope the advice is followed. That is why too often you see officials wait until it is too late to take action. careers are often made or destroyed over these types of events. Time frames for evacuations have already been figured out and in some cases takes much longer than you would think especially along parts of the mid east coast like NC and the DELMARVA where storms traditionally pick up speed as they head North. We all know the science isn't exact but it doesn't stop us for placing unfair blame on the Mets for not giving us "accurate" information. Tough game we play at times. In the mean time EM's like me will continue to troll this forum and others watching the amateurs and experts debate and offer opinions. I am lucky and have a good relationship with the local NWS guys and trust their opinions but it is nice to get to see the constant discussion and I love to "borrow" a good graphic or map to create a briefing document.

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I'm hugging climatology and the model trend. We're going to Texas with Ike!

Reading actual pro-met thread, with apparent center reforming North under MLC, Eastward solutions seem quite possible. I'd put Mobile at the mid point of my unofficial Ed-cone.

Edit- radar suggesting North of 5 pm NHC track Alabama- Heart of Dixie.

BYX_loop.gif

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Isaac is being hyped like no tomorrow. Honestly with dry air, shear, and lack of energy in the ocean it would be crazy to think a category 3 would develop IF it follows the current track. if the storm does deviate more west than expected then this could be a different issue. but im really disappointed how the hype has negatively effected people in those "hurricane warning" areas or near them in FL.

but hey what ever gets higher ratings and $$ in works for them i guess.

This is banter so please don't delete, ok?

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Isaac is being hyped like no tomorrow. Honestly with dry air, shear, and lack of energy in the ocean it would be crazy to think a category 3 would develop IF it follows the current track. if the storm does deviate more west than expected then this could be a different issue. but im really disappointed how the hype has negatively effected people in those "hurricane warning" areas or near them in FL.

but hey what ever gets higher ratings and $$ in works for them i guess.

This is banter so please don't delete, ok?

dry air is diminishing along with shear, and there is plenty of fuel in the gulf for strengthening.

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Isaac is being hyped like no tomorrow. Honestly with dry air, shear, and lack of energy in the ocean it would be crazy to think a category 3 would develop IF it follows the current track. if the storm does deviate more west than expected then this could be a different issue. but im really disappointed how the hype has negatively effected people in those "hurricane warning" areas or near them in FL.

but hey what ever gets higher ratings and $$ in works for them i guess.

This is banter so please don't delete, ok?

shear? Dry air? Lack o f energy in ocean? Where did you hear that?

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

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Isaac is being hyped like no tomorrow. Honestly with dry air, shear, and lack of energy in the ocean it would be crazy to think a category 3 would develop IF it follows the current track. if the storm does deviate more west than expected then this could be a different issue. but im really disappointed how the hype has negatively effected people in those "hurricane warning" areas or near them in FL.

but hey what ever gets higher ratings and $$ in works for them i guess.

This is banter so please don't delete, ok?

Huge lol at this post. What are they supposed to do, ignore the warnings? NHC now a hype machine? And NHC is calling for a Cat 2 tops, not a Cat 3. Lack of energy in the ocean? Massive lolz at that. And dry air is a problem right now, but won't be for too much longer. Shear will also be nonexsistent within the next 24 hours. The fact that you even have to mention don't delete my post, should tell yourself a lot.

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