OUGrad05 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Not sure what I make of NHC's call keeping this a TS for another 30 hours. I think we may have a cat 1 by the 5am update. It's presentation continues to look a bit better as time goes on. Slow strengthening seems to be the most likely scenario and there's new convection along the west side of the circulation. This is a pretty big circulation though so I would expect a lengthier time for organization but 30 hours seems ultra conservative. NHC is about as good as it gets, does anyone know what they're looking at that indicates why they've gone with this guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 https://twitter.com/...210279077031936 This was a great call too. JB is terrible. I can't really think of a time he is ever right. I mean 2009-2010 but who wasn't right for that? You said snow and it snowed. I should have had 100" of snow last year if he was right...He should stick to long range and lifting weights. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 There's no one formula for RI, so no one wins or fails until we're within 12 hours of landfall. ive been giving it 12 more hours for 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 His press conference was very weak and talked about preparing to ride out the storm at home. He only has a matter of hours left before mandatory evacuation order will be too late. Well, there's not as many people to evacuate this time (population down what, 20%?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 ive been giving it 12 more hours for 8 days Exactly, it's been in open water today and has weakened and hasn't become better organized....which is good for NO/LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Apologies if this has already been mentioned on one of the the Isaac threads, but PNAS published the following article online on August 13th (before print): Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification The National Geographic reported on the paper: Hurricanes Get Supercharged by River Mouths When storms hit less dense patches of freshwater they gain strength. Hurricanes can get supercharged when they hit river mouths, researchers now find. [...] Although the chances that hurricanes will hit regions swamped by freshwater is small at only 10 to 23 percent, the effect can be startlingly large—hurricanes can become up to 50 percent more intense in regions where freshwater pours into the ocean, such as from river systems like the Ganges, or where tropical storms rain considerably, as in the western Pacific Ocean. "Our study finds that when hurricanes pass over oceans covered by freshwater from rivers, such as the Amazon and Mississippi River, and rain, they can really intensify rapidly," Balaguru said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Exactly, it's been in open water today and has weakened and hasn't become better organized....which is good for NO/LA. Have you not looked at the satellite images today? It's becoming much better organized as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 ive been giving it 12 more hours for 8 days we all have, but none of the models had this getting to hurricane strength before it hit the gulf unimpeded by land. It's finally getting aay from land. Just a little more patence and I think you'll be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Well, there's not as many people to evacuate this time (population down what, 20%?) Latest figures are at 360k and some change, just 90k-ish less than pre-Katrina and it continues to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 https://twitter.com/...210279077031936 This was a great call too. Christ, if that is a big ole FAIL, Thanks for the link for the reminder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 "Gulf Shores, Alabama issues voluntary evacuation order starting Monday. Toursists encouraged to leave tonight." via Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Is the Euro showing a strong Cat 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Beautiful sunset rapid scan imagery, big convective burst going up. http://www.ssec.wisc.../loop_srso.html You can tell there's shear since the southern edge of the tower quickly goes from anvil to clear air, but the water is super warm under the storm so lots of energy to work with regardless. i think that is mostly due to the dry air near Issac and it keeps getting entrained into the circulation killing the convection that tries to form to the south. dry air has been an issue its whole life. unless Issac can close of its circulation, RI is going to be hard to come by. models are seeing something b/c they sure seem to think Issac is going to get rapidly organized. this has been a tough one to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I think one has to admit there are some New Orleans disaster scenarios on the table at the moment. Some of the models show potential for westward component in the track and the storm passing very close to the city (like 1812 that Sultan posted about). I'd be concerned about water coming from a different direction untested direction. One thing that stuck with me from Katrina is that the damage on the ground in the Metro area there was much worse and more widespread than I would have guessed from watching the radar and satellite and nhc advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radioheaded Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Live coverage from NO. So far I've been reasonably impressed with their coverage, as well as what I've heard from the leadership of several of the Parish Presidents that they have interviewed apparently, my link didn't work. http://www.wwltv.com...e-stream/exempt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'm in Lighthouse Point.. bout half way between Lauderdale and PB... back side of this chunky storm is kinda interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 to me, it appears the eyewall feature has improved greatly in a hurry 5:15pm 6:01pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 From DT: *** ALEET ** 12Z GFS STALLS ISSAC ON LA COAST FOR OVER 36 HRS ...WOW.. what nEw Orleans disaster if correctthis would bring PROOOOOOLONHGED EAST or ENNE or ESE winds into new Orleans and lake Pontchartraine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 From DT: Who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Who is DT? Dave Tolleris. Drop him a tweet, as he loves a good back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Who is DT? Thiis is a picture of him in his moms basement in NOVA: Dave Tolleris. Drop him a tweet, as he loves a good back and forth. He loves it when you call him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Dave Tolleris. Drop him a tweet, as he loves a good back and forth. This isn't the crazy YouTube guy is it? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 This isn't the crazy YouTube guy is it? LOL Nah, he is a pretty level headed guy, who almost never loses his cool over silly things. He is a very calm and content man, a very stand up guy who knows the difference between right and wrong, he is also an expert speller, and he is a great guy to get into a disagreement with because he will nicely tell you why you are wrong and he won't blow up on you with threats against you and/or your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Cantore is in New Orleans... He is the man. I wish I can chase storms like he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Dave Tolleris. Drop him a tweet, as he loves a good back and forth. He's always nice to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Nah, he is a pretty level headed guy, who almost never loses his cool over silly things. He is a very calm and content man, a very stand up guy who knows the difference between right and wrong, he is also an expert speller, and he is a great guy to get into a disagreement with because he will nicely tell you why you are wrong and he won't blow up on you with threats against you and/or your family. Well he sounds like a good guy! I might just tweet him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Nah, he is a pretty level headed guy, who almost never loses his cool over silly things. He is a very calm and content man, a very stand up guy who knows the difference between right and wrong, he is also an expert speller, and he is a great guy to get into a disagreement with because he will nicely tell you why you are wrong and he won't blow up on you with threats against you and/or your family. :whistle: In a backwards world maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 :whistle: In a backwards world maybe. On second thought...maybe I will hold off on the tweet! You little tricksters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 new HPC map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Wow, that's a lot of rain for the south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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