Witness Protection Program Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyone know where online to find a readable terrain elevation map of Mobile Bay and surrounds? I'm also interested to know the inundation likely with a storm surge of 5 to 7 feet. Googling 'storm surge' and 'alabama' yields: http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/stormmap/surgeinfo.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 The Euro came in stronger. I didn't expect the models to trend more west. Looks like New Orleans better get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 18Z Update: I am currently seeing based on my outputs over the Key West Region of winds approaching 45mph around 20/21Z, then increasing above 50mph after 03Z through 16Z, with peak winds speed around 58mph. Rainfall rates heaviest now through 23Z, with rates around .20 per hour. In addition tornado threat is highest through 03Z. Definitely some Street Flooding and Isold Flooding areas in the Key West region. Miami-Homestead region, looking at winds around 40-45mph through about 10Z, then diminishing. Heaviest rainfall will be now through 05Z, with rates around .25 to .3 per hour. Tornado threat highest through 09Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 yup the news is ALL over this now. gonna be 24hours after that press conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Satellite is really starting to look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I feel for the NHC. They are trying to be cautious but we KNOW they can't wait too long on a NOLA call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Satellite is really starting to look better. really? looks more disorganized. looks like two huge pieces of convection swirling around the center now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I wonder if the people from New Orleans are ready for another strong hurricane . I'm sure they are, it might be bewildering, but it is a fact of life when you are living on the Gulf Coast. The bigger question might be, is the infrastructure prepared to deal with another hurricane (potentially major hurricane) strike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 really? looks more disorganized. looks like two huge pieces of convection swirling around the center now. Please go back 18-24 hrs and look at what was being displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If it does track toward the NO area, we will see if they learned from the last major hurricane and be able to do thing smoother and faster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 wow. im talking about the distance from the ground. obviously the pressure can not be 850mb. look at a skew t chart and you will understand. Dude, I know how to read a skew-t diagram, obviously I'm talking about H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'm sure they are, it might be bewildering, but it is a fact of life when you are living on the Gulf Coast. The bigger question might be, is the infrastructure prepared to deal with another hurricane (potentially major hurricane) strike? Hopefully the levees are strong enough this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 wow. im talking about the distance from the ground. obviously the pressure can not be 850mb. look at a skew t chart and you will understand. here is what im talking about. (i hope your not trolling me btw) I'm confused as to what you're referring to. Your initial post said "at 850mb it is 950.3mb" which makes no physical sense. Perhaps you could clarify what you meant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'm confused as to what you're referring to. Your initial post said "at 850mb it is 950.3mb" which makes no physical sense. Perhaps you could clarify what you meant? Guessing extrap surface pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Is anyone else watching the radar closely? It almost looks like we're seeing some clearing in convection in what could be an eye at some point in the next 12 hours or so? Is anyone else seeing this? The area I'm looking at is almost due south of the radar at 18:09Z and just to the SSW at 19:00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'm confused as to what you're referring to. Your initial post said "at 850mb it is 950.3mb" which makes no physical sense. Perhaps you could clarify what you meant? I suspect he's referring to the extrapolated surf press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 really? looks more disorganized. looks like two huge pieces of convection swirling around the center now. Compared with no convection? Definitely convection gonig on now....looking a lot more organized then 18 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Is anyone else watching the radar closely? It almost looks like we're seeing some clearing in convection in what could be an eye at some point in the next 12 hours or so? Is anyone else seeing this? The area I'm looking at is almost due south of the radar at 18:09Z and just to the SSW at 19:00Z. 1) These types of posts are probably more well suited for the banter thread. This thread is mostly for detailed explanations of the various areas of the forecast. 2) You will see all sorts of things on radar (some real, some imaginary) if you analyze the radar frame by frame with a tropical cyclone. Wobbles, banding, center changing because of bands over the radar site, etc. Best to look at the bigger pictures for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 im just going off of the weatherbell maps where the min pressure at 850mb was 950.3mb. The only "pressure at 850mb" is 850mb. By definition. "min pressure at 850mb" has no physical meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Read up on 1812, full moon, slow mover, intensifying. Worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Compared with no convection? Definitely convection gonig on now....looking a lot more organized then 18 hours ago. yea i agree. guess im just being impatient XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 The only "pressure at 850mb" is 850mb. By definition. "min pressure at 850mb" has no physical meaning. so i guess they were indicating surface pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I am afraid with it now moving into more open water, the warmth of the GOM, and the fact that it has full use of the waters energy because no storm has churned up the water at that location yet that we might see a rapidly intensifying hurricane within 1-2 days. Just my observation / prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If the GFS/EURO and the rest of the 00z models tonight do not come within 50-75 miles of agreement on landfall, then things will get ugly if this does eventually hit NOLA. Because i think right now they are playing a cautious waiting game. They will have 1 maybe 2 days to prepare and/or evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 so i guess they were indicating surface pressure? Most likely. You'd only extrapolate down to the surface if it was recon data or the like. A model would generally print out a minimum surface pressure for you. Now, whether that is right either due to resolution or just a poor forecast is an entirely separate issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 CU, not to put you on the spot, but what's your take Re: the eventual landfall point? You're one of my top sources here, so I'd like to hear your opinion-- or even some thoughts about it. (Don't worry-- I'm not even gonna ask about intensity. ) Split right down the middle between GFS op/ens and ECMWF op/ens right now is the best I can do. Meaning New Orleans metro to the MS coast area. Intensity...I'll give a range of 85-105 kt at landfall, with a peak intensity probably higher than that. On a entirely subjective note...I have a nagging feeling that this is a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Jefferson, Plaquemines, and St. Charles Parish's have all issued states of emergency. Grand Isle, LA has issued a mandatory evacuation to be complete by 9am tomorrow. http://www.wwltv.com/ NOLA Mayor to speak at 245pm CT and Gov. Jindal to speak at 3pm CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Read up on 1812, full moon, slow mover, intensifying. Worst case. “Its initial approach was toward Mississippi, but then it turned northwest toward Louisiana as it approached landfall in the afternoon on Aug. 19,” Mock said. “The USS Enterprise had the most detailed wind observations at New Orleans. A change in winds to the southwest around local midnight tells me that the storm center skimmed as little as five kilometers to the west of New Orleans.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Split right down the middle between GFS op/ens and ECMWF op/ens right now is the best I can do. Meaning New Orleans metro to the MS coast area. Intensity...I'll give a range of 85-105 kt at landfall, with a peak intensity probably higher than that. On a entirely subjective note...I have a nagging feeling that this is a little low. OK, thanks-- I appreciate it. So, neither solution at this point is seeming more credible than-- or edging out-- the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I just got a report from a friend of 200(estimated) trucks carrying power polls south along I77 in SC. Dunno their destination though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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