Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 15:44Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 21 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 15:27:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°38'N 80°57'W (23.6333N 80.95W) B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (133 km) to the SE (141°) from Key West, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,393m (4,570ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 58° at 48kts (From the ENE at ~ 55.2mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NNW (341°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,401m (4,596ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the north quadrant at 15:04:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 be prepared for gas prices to spike. there are a lot of refineries in the area and combine this with speculation and I think prices could easily increase by 10% over the next week. (they increased about 20% as a result of Katrina) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 be prepared for gas prices to spike. there are a lot of refineries in the area and combine this with speculation and I think prices could easily increase by 10% over the next week. (they increased about 20% as a result of Katrina) filling up today for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 14:15Z Satellite showing nice deep plum of moisture along the W-NW side of the circulation, in addition another nice intense moisture plume riding along the northern part that will clip the southern Florida areas next 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyone know if evacs have started around NOLA yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyone know if evacs have started around NOLA yet? I was just checking the local sites, have not seen anything yet on evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyone know if evacs have started around NOLA yet? Considering the major news networks haven't been running nonstop coverage on it, I would say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Key West about to get a nice band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyone know if evacs have started around NOLA yet? Looked all around on Twitter and the web, nothing. NOLA.com posted a story about evacuation tips and plans a few hours ago, but mentioned NO evacuations as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I was just checking the local sites, have not seen anything yet on evacuations. I'd hate to be in their position right now. There's probably somewhat less motivation when you're looking at what is currently a tropical storm and not a hurricane (let alone a major). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'd hate to be in their position right now. There's probably somewhat less motivation when you're looking at what is currently a tropical storm and not a hurricane (let alone a major). Which could lead to a disastrous outcome if we see rapid intensification over the interior Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 hearing about most oil companies shutting down in the GOM, oil prices FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Which could lead to a disastrous outcome if we see rapid intensification over the interior Gulf. Yea, this could turn out really bad. We will be 48hrs from landfall shortly, and with Isaac being a weak TS there is no reason for people in NOLA to take it seriously. And as others have noted, the longer it takes to strengthen the less likely an ERC is to occur prior to landfall. If Isaac undergoes RI tomorrow (which isn't likely per-se but with warm waters and a well developed eye it is possible) then it could take a lot of people off guard. A rapidly intensifying hurricane only 24 hrs from landfall would leave NOLA little to no time to prepare and evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Issac is looking better and better IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 My money is on NOLA leaders having learned little and being stuck on stupid. I have been following the Twitter feed on Isaac and a woman in the midwest wants the NOLA track, as it brings more rain to the drought-ridden midwest. She said that NOLA would be fine with a Cat2 storm. She seems to not know that Katrina's winds in NOLA were Cat1 and flooding was the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 FYI Oil Platforms in GOM http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/258/cache/gulf-of-mexico-map_25845_600x450.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'd hate to be in their position right now. There's probably somewhat less motivation when you're looking at what is currently a tropical storm and not a hurricane (let alone a major). This is horrible timing for the Louisiana fishing industry. Alligator season starts this week and fishing for various species of fish is currently at its prime. They could take a real hit in the wallet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3monkeymom Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'm not far from NOLA, and trust me, everyone I know is taking this very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 did they miss the center on the last pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If Cuba didn't exist, Isaac would be going to town right now. Just wait until it clears Florida and Cuba, you'll probably see some textbook rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 hearing about most oil companies shutting down in the GOM, oil prices FTL Gas prices went up to $5.02/gallon here on Civic Holiday at the beginning of the month for whatever reason other than a long weekend. It's the Labour Day weekend approaching... $5/gallon again! This time the "excuse" will be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anyone know where online to find a readable terrain elevation map of Mobile Bay and surrounds? I'm also interested to know the inundation likely with a storm surge of 5 to 7 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 From the main thread: That's at 900 mb. Pardon my long, ignorant absence, but what is the 900-mb to 10-m reduction factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Louisiana Governor to hold press conference at 4:15 EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 be prepared for gas prices to spike. there are a lot of refineries in the area and combine this with speculation and I think prices could easily increase by 10% over the next week. (they increased about 20% as a result of Katrina) Ugggggh. I'm really dreading this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 i'll just come out and say it this is starting to look like Katrina #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 From the main thread: Pardon my long, ignorant absence, but what is the 900-mb to 10-m reduction factor? Well, the HWRF has the max 10m wind throughout its run at 120.4 kts, so you're probably, for this run, looking at about a 20% reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 i'll just come out and say it this is starting to look like Katrina #2 Even though I HATE HATE HATE to make comparisons to the storm that shall not be named... Here's the forecast track for both that and TS Isaac as of the 11 AM advisory on August 26. Just goes to show that one should ALWAYS respect the cone of uncertainty! Another interesting tid-bit is that storm made landfall on August 29... The NHC's forecast track for TS Isaac has it making landfall August 29... I'm not going to stir the pot any longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Holy Eurobomb...29mbs the last 24 hours before landfall. Same location as 0z but a full 12 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Poor gulf states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.