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TS Isaac Banter Thread

am19psu

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

For the loss of life potential, not to mention gasoline prices, I hope Euro holds serve and later GFS runs shift East.

Agreed. I have learned a great deal reading your post and the pro mets idea's over last several days. Having said that, while getting ready for work Friday morning I started to get a real bad feeling on the eventual outcome of Isaac. I said hello to him when he was born, I'm afraid future generations will never see another Isaac.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
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I agree with you Thunder Road, considering Katrina had a surge 5 feet higher than anything else ever recorded it seems a ridiculous comparison at the time when we have half a tropical storm off of Cuba. It seems like the surge on the south side of the lake in Katrina was 9-15 feet...I will readily admit I don't know the exact conditions that would replicate or exceed this but I can't help but think it was a very rare occurrence with the track of Katrina shoving all of this water towards the coast and then the east winds piling it into the lake, then onto the south shore as Katrina approached the MS coast.

In additional banter, I feel bad for poor Gonzo. They basically landed the G4 just long enough to load up more dropsondes and fuel up and it's back in the air again.

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

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There's no need to dramatically refrain from Katrina comparisons due to any sort of sensitivities if those comparisons have meteorological value. In this case, it is quite fair to say that a verbatim verification of the GFS would likely be more devastating for New Orleans than even a repeat of a Katrina scenario, given 1) the strengthen of the storm relative to its position to NOLA, 2) NOLA being in the right-front quadrant for an extended period of time, 3) the trajectory of the right-front quadrant winds relative to the orientations of the Mississippi River and Lake Ponchartrain, 4) the massive residence time the RFQ would have over New Orleans, and 5) the massive rainfall that would be occurring over NOLA on top of the wave and surge issues. It would be a disaster quite likely worse than Katrina because wind and freshwater flooding impacts would compound the wave and surge impacts worse than they did in Katrina. The levees may be stronger now, but they'll do no good if the surge goes over them. Of course, it's just one model run at a decently long range out still, but given that the discussion was specifically targeted to the model run, there's nothing wrong with what the poster said.

All valid points wrt to the potential devastation of NOLA should a 0z GFS track occur.

Just to clarify a few things, I wasn't calling out any particular poster; rather it's something I've seen a few times already, and I know it's only the beginning given how the 0z suite is playing out so far. Also, I'm not advocating a communist Russia-esqe ban on mentioning Katrina, I just think we should be more responsible than jumping to worst-case scenario conclusions when there is still quite a bit of variability in the future track of Isaac.

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Stebo

Stebo

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All valid points wrt to the potential devastation of NOLA should a 0z GFS track occur.

Just to clarify a few things, I wasn't calling out any particular poster; rather it's something I've seen a few times already, and I know it's only the beginning given how the 0z suite is playing out so far. Also, I'm not advocating a communist Russia-esqe ban on mentioning Katrina, I just think we should be more responsible than jumping to worst-case scenario conclusions when there is still quite a bit of variability in the future track of Isaac.

I don't think it is wrong to at least acknowledge what the models are showing especially considering what we know from what happened in 2005. It is one thing to bring it up at a possible scenario, it is another thing to go 'zomg look at the GFS, New Orleans is gone. Zomg'. To be honest it is all in the characterization of how the message is conveyed looking at things.

I wouldn't say windshield wipering. To be honest, the westward shift has strong meteorological basis given the likely building back of the ridge. Minor changes are still likely, but to be honest, I think landfall is probably going to fall in a zone from Houma, LA, to Mobile, AL. And the fact of the matter is, whether we like it or not, NOLA is in that region, and it takes a full 72 hours to properly execute an evacuation. We are about 72 hours out already. If a proper evacuation of NOLA is to occur, it has to start tomorrow, whether we as meteorologists are certain about impacts to the city or not. It's just the way it is unless we want to risk having what happened with Katrina happen again.

This is why the latest trends would have to be acknowledged and considered. The time frame between now and landfall is quickly shrinking.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

Center looks somewhat broad but well defined on the recon pass. Or maybe just closer to the coast.

I'd be interested to know if people think models like the GFDL can actually help to forecast this situation or are just adding statistical noise. I'm in the noise camp given the complicated setup and I'm guessing the globals have a big advantage. I tend to see things through the eyes of statistics, and if I were setting up a regression I would guess than anything aside from the GFS/Euro/UK is adding more noise than anything else.

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

Does anyone have an estimation of about when Isaac may be approaching the Keys, to where they would feel some significant weather affects? I have a friend stationed there, and she said it has been kind of raining on and off and a bit windy. Just wanted to be able to give her a sort of time frame and I haven't really seen it mentioned anywhere, unless I missed it (which is very likely, I've been stuck in the hospital for the past 10 hours).

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

Does anyone have an estimation of about when Isaac may be approaching the Keys, to where they would feel some significant weather affects? I have a friend stationed there, and she said it has been kind of raining on and off and a bit windy. Just wanted to be able to give her a sort of time frame and I haven't really seen it mentioned anywhere, unless I missed it (which is very likely, I've been stuck in the hospital for the past 10 hours).

Tomorrow afternoon/evening/early night will be the worst. Not to be dismissive of a hurricane's strength but I imagine Key West is well equipped to deal with this storm. I would be shocked if it caused more than cosmetic problems.

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EastCoastLow

EastCoastLow

Posted
Posted

Pensacola tide charts show the region still under the influence of the high end of a normal tide cycle (1.8m), with high tides from 9am to 12pm local on 27 through 29th. But fortunately low tides around midnight, reducing potential danger of night time surge.

Could get quite messy in this region with storm surge depending on time of impact.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like a Mobile AL. landfall. It is slightly slower than the GFS at this time, which allows the western ridge to build in a bit stronger keeping Isaac a bit east of NOLA. But the model looks a bit suspicious to me at h54 it's in a area of weakness, same at h60, at h66 it appears that he gets pick up by the trough, but goes back to being cut off at 72 and just sits and spins over AL. Having said that it seems as if it has some support of the UKMET but I only have that model out to h72. I think the forward speed of Isaac will be the determining factor in its outcome. The GFS has the support of the Gem. It looks like a GFS/Gem solution, vs Euro/UKMET. I am a real fan of the Euro, but right now based on how the GFS handled Debby I would there is about a 70% of the GFS/GEM having the right idea.

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gulfcane

gulfcane

Posted
Posted

wind_10m_f072.png

Add the Experimental FIM model to the GFS camp. Been showing this solution a few runs in a row now. So CMC, NOGAPS, HWRF, BAMS, and GFS go NOLA. ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL go east. Although GFDL makes no sense and has it making landfall in south FL. Models are converging now.

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow afternoon/evening/early night will be the worst. Not to be dismissive of a hurricane's strength but I imagine Key West is well equipped to deal with this storm. I would be shocked if it caused more than cosmetic problems.

Thank you. No, they are, and she's on base so she's even better off than most. She said that a lot of the structures there are pretty dumpy though (off base) and is worried about how they will fare. She said that the base is pretty much most worried about surge and spent the last 2 days sandbagging away.

Thank you for the insight.

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isohume

isohume

Posted
Posted

i remember when most on here(including me) said Isaac was only going to gradually weaken until is crosses the key's. looks like the opposite happened.

Yeah, everyone is pretty much at the mercy of the models, including the NHC, and the models under-perform quite often. A little value can be added in the near term, but there is much to learn about barotropic weather along with a sparse data network for much, if any, skill to be added in the medium range currently. Subjective experience adds the most value in a forecast.

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

Lol, if only that was true. Surface wind fail there. Haha

15:01:30Z 24.700N 81.383W 842.6 mb

(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,521 meters

(~ 4,990 feet) 1004.2 mb

(~ 29.65 inHg) - From 58° at 41 knots

(From the ENE at ~ 47.1 mph) 16.3°C

(~ 61.3°F) 12.6°C

(~ 54.7°F) 42 knots

(~ 48.3 mph) 158 knots*

(~ 181.7 mph*) 5 mm/hr*

(~ 0.20 in/hr*) 154.2 knots* (~ 177.4 mph*)

Category Five Hurricane* 376.2%*

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ksstormhunter

ksstormhunter

Posted
Posted

15Z Update: Showing Key West areas continue to deteriorate, expecting winds to push to around 45mph 19-20Z, then after 07Z expecting wind gusts to push into the low 50's, peaking around 57mph right now. Initial surge of precip expected from 23-04Z with rates of around .3" per hour and totals through 15Z around 3.7-4" possible. Tornado Potential starts to increase from 19Z onward. Homestead to Miami corridor looking at on and off Storms with winds gusting between 35-44mph throughout the day. Heaviest precipitation will be from now through about 01Z then diminishing along with the winds down to the low 30's. Rainfall accumulations around 2.5 to 3" possible in this corridor.

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