Calderon Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 That'd sure be pretty, but the people along the coast there probably wouldn't dig it. and for many, many miles inland. The Big Bend coast is mostly swampy wetlands that extend miles inland as well.You'd have surge going far up several rivers, such as the Santa Fe & Suwannee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 18z GFS destroys New Orleans. Catastrophic surge! Lol^..Im reminded of the FEMA evacuation plan..."RUN b**ch RUN" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Ok I can't help myself...I saw someone post this somewhere else and it really irks me that this is the type of information that actually gets passed around. Conditions that are even more favorable than what Hurricane Katrina and Rita went through in 2005. This is worrying considering the possibility for very rapid intensification once the system gets clear of the Florida Keys. - Garret Bastardi Katrina was literally the perfect scenario. I remember looking at the conditions and not only was it practically under a bubbling hot spring, but it had venting assistance in all 4 quadrants. You could not have drawn the features on the map any more perfectly to cause a storm to strengthen. I know we have gone over this 1000 times on this board, but it doesn't frustrate me any less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Ok I can't help myself...I saw someone post this somewhere else and it really irks me that this is the type of information that actually gets passed around. Katrina was literally the perfect scenario. I remember looking at the conditions and not only was it practically under a bubbling hot spring, but it had venting assistance in all 4 quadrants. You could not have drawn the features on the map any more perfectly to cause a storm to strengthen. I know we have gone over this 1000 times on this board, but it doesn't frustrate me any less. I don't get why so many people go off his every word, isn't he still in High School? People on FB think he's the person to go to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I don't get why so many people go off his every word, isn't he still in High School? People on FB think he's the person to go to. I think you underestimate how many shockingly dumb people there are out there. FB brings them all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I think you underestimate how many shockingly dumb people there are out there. FB brings them all together. Oh I know man, trust me, lol. Anybody could post just about anything on FB, and most people would believe it. Just still can't wrap my head around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Not sure who cares, but I'm thinking between NO-Biloxi high end cat 2.. any thoughts? Bueller? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Rapid scan IR showing storms starting to fire close to center now. Got to figure at least 6+ more hours to get convection established and get a bit farther from Cuba before you see meaningful intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The 18z HWRF brings it down to 945mb and impacts the MS/AL border area. Even the most hardcore weather enthusiast doesn't want this in their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Not sure who cares, but I'm thinking between NO-Biloxi high end cat 2.. any thoughts? Bueller? Bueller? If you don't have reasoning, then no one cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Here is my first map for Isaac. I think landfall around Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Why the 15 mph of weakening on the approach? Other question is why the WNW motion during the day on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Why the 15 mph of weakening on the approach? Other question is why the WNW motion during the day on Sunday? Well the last plot is slightly over land so that plus the shallow waters will see slight weakening due to that. And the more west movement is due to the ridge will be at its strongest then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If you don't have reasoning, then no one cares. When I am not mobile I'll make a post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I don't quite know why the Weather Channel keeps on obsessing about whether the NHC drops the pressure by one to two millibars on each advisory. The general audience doesn't care about it. Also, why on weather reports, do TV people keep on reporting barometric pressure in inches, then when a tropical cyclone pops up, then shift to millibars? I'm not sure the general public can relate to millibars, as opposed to inches of mercury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I don't quite know why the Weather Channel keeps on obsessing about whether the NHC drops the pressure by one to two millibars on each advisory. The general audience doesn't care about it. Also, why on weather reports, do TV people keep on reporting barometric pressure in inches, then when a tropical cyclone pops up, then shift to millibars? I'm not sure the general public can relate to millibars, as opposed to inches of mercury. The general public only cares about where its going to land and how strong the winds will be.... and if Jim Cantore is coming to their town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Agreed. So does Reed Timmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 By 06-07Z, the core of the cyclone should start entering KAMX, TMIA radar range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 0z will come back east. 18z may have overdone the ridge. Whoops.. Looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Dr. Rick Knabb@NHCDirector2m Not all tracks on model graphics are created equal. Some experimental, others simplistic and/or not even really forecast models. Posted on Twitter at 12:08AM Today EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 This situation is starting to become a bit alarming for a variety of reasons. However, I think we need to see waht the next few model runs entail before really getting antsy. There is some cause for concern though and the last thing New Orleans needs is another pounding from a hurricane. I'm waiting to see what the model data holds the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 There's gonna be a lot of hair pulling if the 00z Euro somehow stays east, considering it's only about 72 hours until expected landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 My 04Z Update: Right now showing Miami to the Florida Keys areas highest threat zone. Projecting winds increasing to 35-40mph around 26/14Z, then increasing up to 45-50mph after 22Z. Highest winds speeds I am showing right now is across the Key West and Homestead area at around 52 mph. Convective Gust potential around 60mph. Showing across Miami and Homestead ares picking up 2.8 to 3.2 inches of rain next 24 hours in addition highest threat for Tornado potential. TS Isaac Overwatch: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 There's gonna be a lot of hair pulling if the 00z Euro somehow stays east, considering it's only about 72 hours until expected landfall. For the loss of life potential, not to mention gasoline prices, I hope Euro holds serve and later GFS runs shift East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 For the loss of life potential, not to mention gasoline prices, I hope Euro holds serve and later GFS runs shift East. Yeah this is the last thing the country needs right now. This could potentialy be a major jolt to our already fragile economy.And of course the loss of life would be awful too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I don't think it is time to panic, but I do think it would be wise for the NHC to at least put NOLA in their cone on the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 For the loss of life potential, not to mention gasoline prices, I hope Euro holds serve and later GFS runs shift East. I wouldnt let my guard down even in Houston. This thing may end taking a track close to Rita's track in 2005.I'm almost 100% certain it isnt coming back to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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