gulfcane Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Sorry if this has been posted...NHC is now doing video and audio updates. Video: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutvideocast4.shtml Audio: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 All signs point to well south of Miami and the shredded system will take some time to reorganize. Chances of a hurricane as it passes by or over far south Florida are relatively small imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 GFS is coming in west and stronger. Yikes. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Anyone know what Joe Bastardi is saying when he just tweeted "GFS obviously brings back the 15 billion dollar option on this storm. I want to see actual data on psn. The fork in the road is tomorrow" ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Anyone know what Joe Bastardi is saying when he just tweeted "GFS obviously brings back the 15 billion dollar option on this storm. I want to see actual data on psn. The fork in the road is tomorrow" ?! Probably in regards to the potential for Isaac to become a strong hurricane and approach New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Probably in regards to the potential for Isaac to become a strong hurricane and approach New Orleans. Is there a possibility this would become a Hurricane Katrina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm replying to this in the banter thread since it's banter. Two points: First off, is it a big surprise that Isaac is weaker this afternoon and probably not going to make hurricane before S FL. I mean, I was one of the ones that was trying to minimize people writing off Isaac because of going over Hispaniola, but even I was thinking more about that it wouldn't be so decimated that it couldn't intensify over the Gulf. I don't think any of the models have shown any significant increase in intensity until it gets close to the Keys. Secondly, I have seen the GFS try to show this major slowing as a storm approaches the northern Gulf Coast more times than I can count. That kind of track rarely occurs, Georges being a notable exception. Not saying it can't or won't happen, I just wouldn't be banking on it as far as upwelling, etc. It's going to be surprising for Florida residents who are under hurricane warnings and watches, especially since the news is hyping it as usual. Pulling the trigger for the hurricane warnings and watches this morning was a bad choice at this junction IMO, since they could've waited a little more to see what happened with Hispaniola. Now there's a big swath of Florida preparing for a hurricane they'll never get, and that'll make some people stop listening to forecasts, especially newcomers. I hope the NHC pulls down the hurricane advisories this afternoon at the very least to minimize the damage being done. I'm also starting to think this 36-48 hour system is a terrible idea. In the past hurricane advisories wouldn't have been issued in southern Florida for a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Is there a possibility this would become a Hurricane Katrina? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm replying to this in the banter thread since it's banter. It's going to be surprising for Florida residents who are under hurricane warnings and watches, especially since the news is hyping it as usual. Pulling the trigger for the hurricane warnings and watches this morning was a bad choice at this junction IMO, since they could've waited a little more to see what happened with Hispaniola. Now there's a big swath of Florida preparing for a hurricane they'll never get, and that'll make some people stop listening to forecasts, especially newcomers. I hope the NHC pulls down the hurricane advisories this afternoon at the very least to minimize the damage being done. I'm also starting to think this 36-48 hour system is a terrible idea. In the past hurricane advisories wouldn't have been issued in southern Florida for a storm like this. I think a lot of the undue focus on FL is because of the stupid convention like it actually means half of what the media has portrayed it as. That's not political.. so no one go there. It's just a 'big' event. Plus there seems to be a general push to overwarn everyone about everything lately. There seems to be reasoning behind it though I'm not sure what it is. I suppose it's close enough but this type of approach does not seem to be the favored one for a significant FL peninsula event overall anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 hahaha everyone starts leaning left after the gfs finally goes right.....and then the ec goes farthest right.....no doubt mocking us at it does so now what, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm replying to this in the banter thread since it's banter. It's going to be surprising for Florida residents who are under hurricane warnings and watches, especially since the news is hyping it as usual. Pulling the trigger for the hurricane warnings and watches this morning was a bad choice at this junction IMO, since they could've waited a little more to see what happened with Hispaniola. Now there's a big swath of Florida preparing for a hurricane they'll never get, and that'll make some people stop listening to forecasts, especially newcomers. I hope the NHC pulls down the hurricane advisories this afternoon at the very least to minimize the damage being done. I'm also starting to think this 36-48 hour system is a terrible idea. In the past hurricane advisories wouldn't have been issued in southern Florida for a storm like this. To be fair, I am not so sure that a Cleo- or King-type intensification--after land interaction with Cuba and/or Hispaniola--would be better forecast if they were to occur today. In that case, the NHC would be blamed for failing to indicate the potential. I do not think that the NHC makes a psychological difference as most people in their psyche are heavily induced toward irrationality, whether hype or complacency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... Euro shifted east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Convection has begun to refire N of the COC. This and getting away from the the mountain should stop additional weakening. Now we see now quickly it moves away from the coast. Recon in the air but unsure if Isaac is too close to the coast to get a fix. Will be able to check the winds in new convection at the very least though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Convection starting to form over what I presume is the center over water just north of the eastern tip of Cuba. May have some surprises up its sleeve. Sure took a long time to produce a co-located center south of Haiti. Warm bath water in the straits and gulf and lower shear forecasts might be in its favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 That Hurricane Kaisac sounds nasty. Better stock up on Pepsi and pizza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm replying to this in the banter thread since it's banter. It's going to be surprising for Florida residents who are under hurricane warnings and watches, especially since the news is hyping it as usual. Pulling the trigger for the hurricane warnings and watches this morning was a bad choice at this junction IMO, since they could've waited a little more to see what happened with Hispaniola. Now there's a big swath of Florida preparing for a hurricane they'll never get, and that'll make some people stop listening to forecasts, especially newcomers. I hope the NHC pulls down the hurricane advisories this afternoon at the very least to minimize the damage being done. I'm also starting to think this 36-48 hour system is a terrible idea. In the past hurricane advisories wouldn't have been issued in southern Florida for a storm like this. I couldn't disagree more with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Is there a possibility this would become a Hurricane Katrina? No, this is Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Is there a possibility this would become a Hurricane Katrina? Yes, but you will have to hurry. http://www.namechangelaw.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Penn State grad most likely. He has that Joe Bastardi enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 omg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Saw a weeniecast that said the HWRF shows a Cat 5 hurricane at landfall. They were using winds from aloft. 10m winds from the same model indicate a strong Cat 3, possibly a weak Cat 4 (before frames) near landfall. Winds don't mix down 100%!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 18z GFS destroys New Orleans. Catastrophic surge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 18z GFS destroys New Orleans. Catastrophic surge! 0z will come back east. 18z may have overdone the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 0z will come back east. 18z may have overdone the ridge. The storm literally stalls just SE of New Orleans, then drifts right over the city over the course of 24 hours. Tremendous flooding and surge potential if it verifies. If Isaac is a Cat 2-3+, the scenario is the worst possible for NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Saw a weeniecast that said the HWRF shows a Cat 5 hurricane at landfall. They were using winds from aloft. 10m winds from the same model indicate a strong Cat 3, possibly a weak Cat 4 (before frames) near landfall. Winds don't mix down 100%!!! This is exactly why I never watch weeniecasts. They just don't make sense and I wind up confused the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The storm literally stalls just SE of New Orleans, then drifts right over the city over the course of 24 hours. Tremendous flooding and surge potential if it verifies. If Isaac is a Cat 2-3+, the scenario is the worst possible for NO. It will be bad there's no doubt. I will say I think the Katrina path is worse though. With an approach from the SE or ESE, the water would not all be forced into Lake Pontchartrain and could escape back into the Gulf. The rainfall would be another matter entirely however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I could dig this kind of presentation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I could dig this kind of presentation... That'd sure be pretty, but the people along the coast there probably wouldn't dig it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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