wi_fl_wx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 This is an excellent example of how ineffective the IR channel is at estimating the intensity of tropical storms. Isaac right now is easily the best organized that it ever has been and is developing an inner core/eyewall at this time. The IR can not see the developing rain bands and it only takes one convective tower to cover the entire storms with a giant anvil of cold cloud tops, which doesn't tell you much at all about what is going on underneath. Now, the IR looks "bad" because there is no CDO/cold cloud tops around the center, but the microwave tells us there are warm rainbands around the center which release significant amounts of latent heat. The cold cloud tops will come later. Unfortunately Haiti is going to get in the way or we would see very fast development from this point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Just for laughs, check out the 18Z run of the model that shall not be spoken of. I saw lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 My feelings exactly. I'm so over this storm for right now. I hate myself for tracking it as closely as I have-- feel like such a sucker. I have been staying up till 1-2 am to look at the models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 18Z HWTF destroys NOLA lol I wouldn't consider that scenario a "lol" per say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I wouldn't consider that scenario a "lol" per say... This ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I thought this was funny (and not political I hope...people are awfully sensitive these days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 That was funny Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Here in SFLA we are getting a shield of rain moving through from Issac. Pretty gusty and a lot of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Did they forget to send out the 11 PM disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Did they forget to send out the 11 PM disco? It is there now, just late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Isaac is an it.. just like every other tropical system ever. /thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Just pushed out a 04Z update output, just showing impacts to the Key West area right now. Showing winds picking up out of the east at 35mph after 25th at 17 Zulu and holding in the low to mid 30;s through 26th at 04 Zulu. Similiar to the Florida Keys area with winds gusting up to around 35mph after around 26th at 00Z. TS Isaac OverWatch: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Isaac is an it.. just like every other tropical system ever. /thanks +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I wouldn't consider that scenario a "lol" per say... Not lol as in I want it to happen -- let's make it clear, I really don't want this to come close to New Orleans. My lol was in reference to the fact that the solution is rather farfetched. It hits New Orleans then stalls over the city for days. Pretty much a worst-case scenario. My apologies if my post offended any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 11Z: Still tracking some good thunderstorms moving into eastern Florida region. Could see isolated wind gusts in the low 50's with the stronger cells. In addition Key West area getting some good rains moving into the area, with potential for isolated winds up to 36mph across the area. Still seeing the stronger steady winds above 40-45 mph after 26th at 06Z across the South Florida areas. Isaac OverWatch: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm not accepting the Canadian superstorm West of New Orleans, obviously, but... Looking at the Alan Huffman/Raleigh, hard to read the numbers, was it showing an 880 mb landfall? How a global can get to 880 mb, even if wrong, would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I saw Key West dropped to a pretty unusual 71.6 degrees this morning. Found this in the AFD: In the water vapor it looks like there is a vorticity maximum forming over the Florida Straits that could have some impact on issac at least in the short term. Also...this feature may have been the culprit for the cold pool aloft producing 40 to 45 knots winds across the stratoform rain shield over the key island chain and coastal waters before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I saw Key West dropped to a pretty unusual 71.6 degrees this morning. Found this in the AFD: In the water vapor it looks like there is a vorticity maximum forming over the Florida Straits that could have some impact on issac at least in the short term. Also...this feature may have been the culprit for the cold pool aloft producing 40 to 45 knots winds across the stratoform rain shield over the key island chain and coastal waters before midnight. They use small case italics down there? Cool! Almost looks like a human wrote it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 What an absolute dream scenario regarding the extent of land interaction.....fasten your seat belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Just for the heck of it I ran the WRF-ARW last night initialized at 00z based on the gfs with 15 km resolution. The model takes Isaac along the northern coast of Cuba and then deepens the storm to about 971 mb at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 What an absolute dream scenario regarding the extent of land interaction.....fasten your seat belts. Even then the core did get disrupted, probably wont look like much for the next 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Heavy rains and winds just north of Key Largo about 10 mins ago, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I have a feeling that this will be mainly a flooding threat rather than a wind threat. seriously having doubts about RI looking at the visible, IR, WV, and SST's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I have a feeling that this will be mainly a flooding threat rather than a wind threat. seriously having doubts about RI looking at the visible, IR, WV, and SST's. Right now... yes. However, we still have plenty of time before this gets in the Gulf of Mexico. Based on the degraded appearance now, I think its unlikely this become a hurricane before a Florida Keys impact. We are another 2+ days beyond that before the Panhandle will get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Rapid-scan is over the storm if anyone is interested in watching it move really slowly. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I could see the current LLCC dissipating over Cuba and reforming under the MLC, is that possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 OMG... LMAO!!!! thanks for the post!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 OMG... LMAO!!!! thanks for the post!! Make sure you be careful and order your chinese food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm not accepting the Canadian superstorm West of New Orleans, obviously, but... Looking at the Alan Huffman/Raleigh, hard to read the numbers, was it showing an 880 mb landfall? How a global can get to 880 mb, even if wrong, would be amazing. It was showing a 980 mb landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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