icebreaker5221 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Isaac interacting with Hispanola. Slightly less climactic than Tembin / Taiwan. Slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Storms don't maintain their intensity from going over swamps, or the Everglades. That may merely slow down the rate of weakening, due to less friction and perhaps a tiny amount of latent heat. Wilma maintained strength because it had a large eye, and because it had a powerful outflow channel to the northeast from a trough that was approaching it. Katrina was on a strengthening trend when it made its first landfall, and stayed near the coast during its passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Storms don't maintain their intensity from going over swamps, or the Everglades. That may merely slow down the rate of weakening, due to less friction and perhaps a tiny amount of latent heat. Wilma maintained strength because it had a large eye, and because it had a powerful outflow channel to the northeast from a trough that was approaching it. Katrina was on a strengthening trend when it made its first landfall, and stayed near the coast during its passage. Spot on, that outflow channel supercharged Wilma and threw forecasters a loop. Wilma pretty much kept intensifying across Florida and the Gulf Stream, really whacked the Bahamas. Damage reports on the east coast seemed to be worse than the west coast, even considering population difference. I'm sure the swamp helped a little as it always does, just not the main reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 A track over Cuba still can't be discounted. If Isaac takes a track similar to the 00z Euro, it could be over the island for 24+ hours, which might weaken it back to a minimal Tropical Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 A track over Cuba still can't be discounted. If Isaac takes a track similar to the 00z Euro, it could be over the island for 24+ hours, which might weaken it back to a minimal Tropical Storm. I don't understand anyone who is actually discounting a track over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I don't understand anyone who is actually discounting a track over Cuba. I haven't been on here much in days. That was mostly in response to some that were jumping on the 12z GFS bandwagon. (hence banter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Spot on, that outflow channel supercharged Wilma and threw forecasters a loop. Wilma pretty much kept intensifying across Florida and the Gulf Stream, really whacked the Bahamas. Damage reports on the east coast seemed to be worse than the west coast, even considering population difference. I'm sure the swamp helped a little as it always does, just not the main reason. NHC report best track has the storm weaker over south Florida than it does for it's data point near west coast landfall and as it went back over open water on the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 JB on Twitter My track remains further east than NHC though a bit west of yesterday.Have it recurving tho and weatherbell disco explains track to e coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 12z GFS actually reforms Isaac off the Carolina coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 JB on Twitter according to his video update, "it's a tough call" between a pass east of Florida and a pass west of Florida. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 12z GGEM shifted east. At 0z, the track was on the west side of Florida. Track goes from the east coast of Florida to central Florida on the 12z run. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 12z Euro running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 There are some GFS ensembles which bring the storm up the east coast of Florida http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 LOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Who the hell came up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Who the hell came up with that? garett bartardi LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I will never forget when I was in Hurricane Charley and 24hrs before it TS Bonnie. TS Isaac might not be as big as Charley but I would not let any guard down on it's size at the moment. If Isaac makes into the Gulf like it is suppose to at the moment, then RI could post a major problem. The Gulf waters at the moment are extremely warm at the surface and most important, the waters is real warm deep. I was in Punta Gorda when Charley hit and I rode the bad boy out. Charley is one of the biggest factors to why I am in college pursuing to become a Meteorologist!!!! Do not put your guard down on Isaac!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 LOLOL WTF, I know GFS has been saying SFL, but SERIOUSLY!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 That G. Bastardi track = weather weenieness at it's best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Might be a good time to take a 24 hour break from the storm. Will be traveling over Haiti/Cuba and I imagine lots of :axe: until he can get back into open waters. Didn't do too bad today, but a shame Haiti will likely be devastated again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I don't see how this is significant. It's about to go into the blender. At this point, it would actually be better if it doesn't have this cute little "core"-- a loose circulation would have a better chance. Said Blender for the cute little core looks like it may end up being a 25 mile journey over land with no more than a 750 meter elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 There are some GFS ensembles which bring the storm up the east coast of Florida http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Just for laughs, check out the 18Z run of the model that shall not be spoken of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Just as the visible picture begins to look like an actual storm for once.... ...the IR presentation is weaksauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Just as the visible picture begins to look like an actual storm for once.... ...the IR presentation is weaksauce Actually while the IR presentation looks badly, it gives me hopes with the improved, more round structure as well as the small blowups of convection right near the centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Might be a good time to take a 24 hour break from the storm. Will be traveling over Haiti/Cuba and I imagine lots of :axe: until he can get back into open waters. Didn't do too bad today, but a shame Haiti will likely be devastated again. My feelings exactly. I'm so over this storm for right now. I hate myself for tracking it as closely as I have-- feel like such a sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 My feelings exactly. I'm so over this storm for right now. I hate myself for tracking it as closely as I have-- feel like such a sucker. This is a bit overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 This is a bit overboard. Can't help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The center should be over hati for what 2 hrs? How will that disrupt it that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The center should be over hati for what 2 hrs? How will that disrupt it that much? There will still be some disruption, even with the center over land only for a short period of time, there are mountains on land that still really mess with the circulation due to downsloping, etc. Plus it still has to cross Cuba. Eastern tip of Cuba has some mountains as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Actually while the IR presentation looks badly, it gives me hopes with the improved, more round structure as well as the small blowups of convection right near the centre. Yeah I agree it definitely looks more organized and ready to go then before. Diurnal max tonight could be the best we've seen Isaac yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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