Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 If the actual center is a degree South of the NHC position, reformed under the deeper convection, the mid level center becoming dominant over the Northern center, then the Euro's initial NW motion might not be correct, and everything else the same, the final landfall may be a bit further West in the Northern GOM, and Isaac may also have less interaction w/ Hispaniola than forecast, perhaps crossing the less mountainous Central or Western Cuba. Thus being less disrupted and stronger at final landfall. I don't think MSY is clear from danger yet. ENE winds around 15.5ºN on HBOB 13 I believe there are two G-IV flights today, and I think there may be a final organized center for tonight's 0Z initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Well kids... VDM is 120+ NM south west of the last VDM. A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 6:55:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W) B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (383 km) to the S (175°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Well kids... VDM is 120+ NM south west of the last VDM. A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 6:55:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W) B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (383 km) to the S (175°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Note also the dropsonde at the VDM point had 25 kt winds from the SW at the surface... which would point more towards the coldest cloud tops. Edit: Fun Fact: The 6z early cycle initialized 108 miles away from the VDM at heading of 168° (SSE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Read virtually the entire set of discos. They haven't been hiding how disorganized it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 (Rant mode because I'm tired and irritated) I'd love to know where they have been basing these "estimated centers" off of for the past 12 hours. Recon was close enough to the 6z position and there weren't any wind shifts or anything of the sort to indicate something at the surface even existed. I understand that they are in a very awkward position now, but you have to adjust at some point to what recon has been showing. Well when the P-3 left, the vortex was obviously tilted and it wasn't unreasonable to put the sfc center where they put it. When in doubt, go with continuity, because its always less embarising to say "it changed" then to say, "it changed.. wait... oh wait, sorry, we were wrong, it didn't change" Hindsight is always 20/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Got rid of my last post. Working at 5am has gotten the best of me. Basically my point is that if we have another decent center pass similar to what produced the previous VDM, it would provide a decent case to declare a full center reformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Got rid of my last post. Working at 5am has gotten the best of me. Basically my point is that if we have another decent center pass similar to what produced the previous VDM, it would provide a decent case to declare a full center reformation. Go to sleep... longer days are ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 So to get this straight on possible scenarios, if this keeps jogging west, will it just bomb north? Some forecasters here in Miami have been going with a possible scenario just like this, but I wasn't sure how something like this would play out given how disorganized the storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Just on the outer frame of my forecast output, looked at Key West areas. Seeing forecasted winds around the 26th at 14Z 07037G54MPH, then peaking around the 27th at 00Z 07048G70MPH. Have a zone of the highest winds from 26th at 21Z to 27th at 06Z. Again just my initial look at it, still high degree of variability.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Can someone tell me where he found this? not on the last vortex message.. thanks Last air force center drop had 2 kt at 850 and 4 kt at surface. Definitely getting stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Need some help & I relize this may be premature. I have some intrests in the Western Panhandle that would require me to head down before the storm. I want to delay going as much as possible but don't want to be secureing things outdoors in TS conditions. NHC is currently showing landfall at approx. 2 am Wed. MOB afd calls for conditions to deteriorate Mon. night with TS cond. on Tues. I know this is a large storm in size & landfall is not that important. If the model runs continue to hone in on a North Central Gulf Coast landfall would Sunday be a better time to leave or could I strech it to Mon morning. The work I have to do would be completed in 4 hrs max. Thanks in Advance, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Definitely some hints of fujiwhara this morning on the sat loop with Joyce. Not in the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It appears that it might be trying to form an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It appears that it might be trying to form an eye. I don't see an eye forming. Nice cirrus outflow, however, the best it has looked. Thinking has a chance to hit the Southern fork of Haiti as a minimal hurricane. Which is too bad, CNN reporting some people don't know a storm is coming and still living in tent cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Anyone think this might become a Charley at all if it misses Haiti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Anyone think this might become a Charley at all if it misses Haiti? By track or intensity? I would say no to either. wrt intensity, Charley was such a small cane that it was able to intensify quickly right before landfall. If anything, this will probably end up more like an Ike, which due to its large size did not strengthen much after Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 By track or intensity? I would say no to either. wrt intensity, Charley was such a small cane that it was able to intensify quickly right before landfall. If anything, this will probably end up more like an Ike, which due to its large size did not strengthen much after Cuba. yea i can see that happening. interested to see what the 12z models show after this rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Well, the 12z GFS is doing something different. Looks well NE of prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 GFS has Isaac only spending less than 6 hours over land, nearly shooting the gap between Haiti and Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Well, the 12z GFS is doing something different. Looks well NE of prior runs. Well northeast of the previous runs. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Well northeast of the previous runs. Interesting. Looks to be heading towards the Keys at H51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 hits south of Miami on this run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 gfs makes landfall in far southern FL after it's exist from Cuba...but should continue into the Gulf beyond 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I guess East Coast is back into play? What a strange storm. Cue the SNEers... No. I don't get why it moves west after it goes north. Steering currents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 gfs makes landfall in far southern FL after it's exist from Cuba...but should continue into the Gulf beyond 60 hours. Just raking the W coast through 75h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Just raking the W coast through 75h. I don't get how it keeps its strength up while cutting across the bottom tip of FL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I don't get how it keeps its strength up while cutting across the bottom tip of FL... It's basically a big swamp...storms have maintained intensity while crossing there (I think Katrina may have even gained a little while it crossed iirc). I guess the silver lining to the run of riding the entire W coast of Florida is that it can't strengthen much that close to land so it will probably just be a TS and mostly a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It's basically a big swamp...storms have maintained intensity while crossing there (I think Katrina may have even gained a little while it crossed iirc). Thanks, makes sense. Although - by that logic, storms should also intensify over DC... Just sayin'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It's basically a big swamp...storms have maintained intensity while crossing there (I think Katrina may have even gained a little while it crossed iirc). I guess the silver lining to the run of riding the entire W coast of Florida is that it can't strengthen much that close to land so it will probably just be a TS and mostly a rain event. Wilma is a great example of one that maintained intesity in the swamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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