Mallow Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 My Isaaccast, fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 whens a good time to talk about final landfall intensity? 12-24 hours before LF....If your looking for a + 10 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12-24 hours before LF....If your looking for a + 10 mph range. basically could it be a cat 2 cane or higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 basically could it be a cat 2 cane or higher? All scenarios are in play for any potential US LF's.....intensity forecasts 5 days+ out have very large errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 What kind of rains could Haiti be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 What kind of rains could Haiti be looking at? Form the latest NHC update: RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Form the latest NHC update: RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. Holy cow. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 HPC has a graphic on their front page with respect to the QPF for Florida from 'Isaac'. They have never done that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Still not giving up on my SE Florida landfall hope. I still have the amazing GFDL, HWRF, and CMC in my camp . HWRF isn't too bad intensity wise. Better than riding up Cuba like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 cant believe its taking so long to strengthen. What is up woth these systems this year. I thought warm water and low shear = strengthening. What is keeping them from becoming stacked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 cant believe its taking so long to strengthen. What is up woth these systems this year. I thought warm water and low shear = strengthening. What is keeping them from becoming stacked? Low level winds, perhaps? I think historically, the East Caribbean has been a graveyard of sorts for developing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 cant believe its taking so long to strengthen. What is up woth these systems this year. I thought warm water and low shear = strengthening. What is keeping them from becoming stacked? Dry air entrainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 If it wasn't for the great potential in the GOM, I'd ask mother nature to abort Isaac. Talk about an Ernesto redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Fox News Met fail 30 minutes after 12z euro: 'there are two models we like, the euro and the GFS, the euro had been west and the GFS east, but they've come into better alignment today on a FL panhandle landfall' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Fun fact, the recent dropwinsonde by the G-IV took exactly 15 minutes to fall from 40,650 ft to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Fox News Met fail 30 minutes after 12z euro: 'there are two models we like, the euro and the GFS, the euro had been west and the GFS east, but they've come into better alignment today on a FL panhandle landfall' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 gotta love the media, was watching a news station yesterday and they put up a graphic comparing its size to texas "as you can see issac is already bigger than texas and florida is dead in its sites" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The Euro track would be a nice drought buster as it moves into the plains and might not cause much coastal $ damage if landfall were east of Houston--except for the oil platforms having to shut down. Moving this to banter since I'm assuming it will end up here, but there are plenty of towns east of Houston/Galveston on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Moving this to banter since I'm assuming it will end up here, but there are plenty of towns east of Houston/Galveston on the coast. Sorry, yeah, the populations aren't high, but the land is so low that flooding is a concern even though the main cities are 30 miles + inland. Kind of silly to be speculating anyway on such a low probability occurrence as the Euro, but I'm sure farmers and long oil traders are pulling for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 cant believe its taking so long to strengthen. What is up woth these systems this year. I thought warm water and low shear = strengthening. What is keeping them from becoming stacked? The east Caribbean LLJ has been anomalously strong this year. This equates to fast storm motions and decreased low-level convergence, which both act to disrupt the low-level structure of fledgling TC's. I recall reading that El Nino tends to strengthen that LLJ, so this is not abnormal I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 look at all the people who can't spell https://twitter.com/#!/search/Issac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 look at all the people who can't spell https://twitter.com/...#!/search/Issac My favorite so far: GOP not concerned with Tropical Storm Issac as it is not a legitimate hurricane and Florida has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. @Fake_Dispatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 look at all the people who can't spell https://twitter.com/...#!/search/Issac test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 look at all the people who can't spell https://twitter.com/...#!/search/Issac Speaking of Twitter, and the mesoscale US model that can't be mentioned, you'll never guess what degreed professional met is using said model to predict SE USA landfall, and will discuss this and future Hurricane Kirk on a synidcated nationwide radio show this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Speaking of Twitter, and people scolded for mentioning the US mesoscale model that shan't be named, guess what professional degreed met is riding said unnamed model to a Carolinas landfall? https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi HM says the same Commentary I remain committed to a path up the East Coast of Florida into South Carolina. My reasoning is such... 1. Isaac remains weak and continues to come around the Atlantic ridge. 2. Weak trough over the central Gulf keeps Isaac east. 3. Historically, storms on the track of Isaac tend to curve north once they they move past Puerto Rico. Steering flow would take Isaac west for a time before turning to the northwest once it reaches 70 west taking the storm close to Haiti and over the east end of Cuba. Once Isaac does get off Cuba, at that point the intensification starts and we have a whole new ballgame. As for the models, Euro has trended to the East going from a New Orleans hit to a Mobile Bay Hit. GFS remains on the west coast for Florida which is a rare path. NAM/DGEX take the storm on my path. GFDL is trending east as are the NHC models. Given that the center of Isaac is being adjusted almost every hour, the models are going to continue to have problems with the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Margus****y really shouldn't even look at the tropics. He has a hard enough time with the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 If HM says Carolinas, than I have suddenly expanded my thinking. He knows of what he speaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 If HM says Carolinas, than I have suddenly expanded my thinking. He knows of what he speaks. Oh, the AccuWx Henry Margusity? I didn't even think of him. I was about to consider where I had gone wrong in thinking MSY to PAM as the main target... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Speaking of Twitter, and the mesoscale US model that can't be mentioned, you'll never guess what degreed professional met is using said model to predict SE USA landfall, and will discuss this and future Hurricane Kirk on a synidcated nationwide radio show this afternoon... I asked Ryan M about it last night and he didn't seem as dismissive as those here but I didn't really press him on it. I think the NAM generally sucks at 84 regardless of where it's used so there's that. However, I'd probably look at it once the system is in the Gulf etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I could be wrong and looking at recon obs, this doesn't qualify as a tropical cyclone, recon is basically finding 1002 pressure in a very broad area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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