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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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What kind of rains could Haiti be looking at?

Form the latest NHC update:

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...

WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.

THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD

SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO

RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8

INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE

LEEWARD ISLANDS.

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Form the latest NHC update:

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...

WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.

THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD

SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO

RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8

INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE

LEEWARD ISLANDS.

Holy cow. Thanks for the info!

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Fox News Met fail 30 minutes after 12z euro: 'there are two models we like, the euro and the GFS, the euro had been west and the GFS east, but they've come into better alignment today on a FL panhandle landfall'

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The Euro track would be a nice drought buster as it moves into the plains and might not cause much coastal $ damage if landfall were east of Houston--except for the oil platforms having to shut down.

Moving this to banter since I'm assuming it will end up here, but there are plenty of towns east of Houston/Galveston on the coast.

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Moving this to banter since I'm assuming it will end up here, but there are plenty of towns east of Houston/Galveston on the coast.

Sorry, yeah, the populations aren't high, but the land is so low that flooding is a concern even though the main cities are 30 miles + inland. Kind of silly to be speculating anyway on such a low probability occurrence as the Euro, but I'm sure farmers and long oil traders are pulling for it.

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cant believe its taking so long to strengthen. What is up woth these systems this year. I thought warm water and low shear = strengthening. What is keeping them from becoming stacked?

The east Caribbean LLJ has been anomalously strong this year. This equates to fast storm motions and decreased low-level convergence, which both act to disrupt the low-level structure of fledgling TC's. I recall reading that El Nino tends to strengthen that LLJ, so this is not abnormal I suppose.

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look at all the people who can't spell https://twitter.com/...#!/search/Issac

Speaking of Twitter, and the mesoscale US model that can't be mentioned, you'll never guess what degreed professional met is using said model to predict SE USA landfall, and will discuss this and future Hurricane Kirk on a synidcated nationwide radio show this afternoon...

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Speaking of Twitter, and people scolded for mentioning the US mesoscale model that shan't be named, guess what professional degreed met is riding said unnamed model to a Carolinas landfall?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

HM says the same :lol:

Commentary

I remain committed to a path up the East Coast of Florida into South Carolina. My reasoning is such...

1. Isaac remains weak and continues to come around the Atlantic ridge.

2. Weak trough over the central Gulf keeps Isaac east.

3. Historically, storms on the track of Isaac tend to curve north once they they move past Puerto Rico.

Steering flow would take Isaac west for a time before turning to the northwest once it reaches 70 west taking the storm close to Haiti and over the east end of Cuba. Once Isaac does get off Cuba, at that point the intensification starts and we have a whole new ballgame.

As for the models, Euro has trended to the East going from a New Orleans hit to a Mobile Bay Hit. GFS remains on the west coast for Florida which is a rare path. NAM/DGEX take the storm on my path. GFDL is trending east as are the NHC models.

Given that the center of Isaac is being adjusted almost every hour, the models are going to continue to have problems with the path.

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Speaking of Twitter, and the mesoscale US model that can't be mentioned, you'll never guess what degreed professional met is using said model to predict SE USA landfall, and will discuss this and future Hurricane Kirk on a synidcated nationwide radio show this afternoon...

I asked Ryan M about it last night and he didn't seem as dismissive as those here but I didn't really press him on it. I think the NAM generally sucks at 84 regardless of where it's used so there's that. However, I'd probably look at it once the system is in the Gulf etc.

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