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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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I'd guess the Atlantic ridge is under-modeled and the lakes trough is over-modeled as it has been at this range many times this summer. Would favor the Euro track though it is likely somewhere in the middle of that and the GFS.

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Why anyone would be rooting for a northern track is beyond me, it would mean Isaac gets put on permanent hold as it moves over Hispaniola and Cuba... everytime a model forecasts strengthening after significant interaction with the islands, it's almost always wrong & I doubt this would be an exception.

Luckily Isaac seems to be moving on the southern edge of guidance, with the center even reforming south... and the overall system moving just S of west. The model spread is actually quite narrow at this point, ranging from Louisiana to Pensacola or so (the good models, at least). It would be foolish to guarantee a Central Gulf landfall, but at this point that would seem to be the best bet.

Commence chaos in New Orleans in 3, 2, 1...

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5am NHC:

an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaac this

morning has found a poorly defined inner core with a large area of

light winds around a center...which is similar to what an earlier

NOAA research mission indicated. Radar data from Guadeloupe and San

Juan also indicate a poorly defined inner core convective pattern.

Rather than initialize the center of Isaac well to the south of the

previous track...I have opted to use a blend of the recon fixes...

satellite imagery...data from nearby NOAA buoy 42060...and a 06z

consensus forecast position from the GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET

models. The initial intensity was also decreased to 35 kt based on

data from the recon aircraft and NOAA buoy 42060.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/12 kt. The 00z

GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET models did an outstanding job predicting

the recent southwestward jog or reformation of the center of Isaac.

Those same models are also forecasting Isaac to make a sharp jog to

the northwest over the next 12-24 hours...and then steady off on a

general west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that...

the global and regional models have come into better agreement on

Isaac moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge

that is forecast to develop after 72 hours across Florida and the

eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model has continued its eastward

shift over the past 36 hours...and even the latest NOGAPS and

Canadian model runs have shifted well to the west across the

Florida Peninsula are now no longer considered to be outliers. Due

to less spread in the latest NHC model guidance...and the fact that

ECMWF has shifted closer to the previous forecast at days 4 and

5...the official forecast track is just an update of the previous

advisory track...and is close to the dynamical consensus models

tvca and tv15.

Upper-air data from St. Maarten at 00z confirms the dry air in the

mid-levels of the atmosphere between 600 and 300 mb as alluded to

in previous discussions. This layer of very dry air has been

hindering convective development in the northeastern quadrant for

the past 3-4 days. However...the global models are in good

agreement on the dry air mixing out over the next 36 hours and the

inner core becoming quite moist...which should allow for some

steady intensification to occur before Isaac interacts with the

mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Given the impressive upper-level

outflow pattern that the cyclone has developed...Isaac is still

expected to become a hurricane by 36 hours. After that...however...

the the primary impediment to strengthening will be the interaction

with the land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. How much the

inner core of Isaac is disrupted while over land will determine

just how much re-strengthening will occur once the center moves

back over water after 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is

similar to the previous forecast and is in reasonable agreement

with the decay-SHIPS and lgem intensity models.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 23/0900z 15.3n 64.0w 35 kt 40 mph

12h 23/1800z 16.2n 65.9w 40 kt 45 mph

24h 24/0600z 16.9n 68.4w 50 kt 60 mph

36h 24/1800z 17.8n 71.1w 65 kt 75 mph

48h 25/0600z 19.1n 73.4w 55 kt 65 mph

72h 26/0600z 21.8n 77.4w 60 kt 70 mph...inland

96h 27/0600z 24.4n 80.9w 65 kt 75 mph...over water

120h 28/0600z 27.4n 83.7w 70 kt 80 mph

$$

forecaster Stewart

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Won't redraw yesterday's map. Only small adjustments. Orange Louisiana line now goes to GAO/GRI, yellow line to about LCH. Magenta line to near PAM and the entire magenta Ed-cast line is barely shifted South, then West. Avoids worst of Hispaniola, which increases magenta instensity to possibly a 3. at landfall in Florida. Eastern orange line to CHS, yellow line to ILM. Still close to GFS guidance, more a tweak than a wholesale change. Might go farther West, but new 6Z GFS says not to get too crazy, Guesstimating 90% landfall inside yellow, 60% inside orange.

Fairly close to most of the models, Western edge. Euro is an outlier, although coming closer to the rest, but I am showing a touch of respect.

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Eds_SecondIsaacAmateurMSPaint..jpg

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In wish cast mode, with most of the convection being South of the poorly organized center, I am hoping for a center reformation to the South, well below 15º.

Josh probably doesn't want to chase in Vermillion Parish, but they have good sea food in Abbeville.e were Louisiana storms that didn't do much for us rain wise. Maybe I should wishcast it to BPT. Technically Texas, and it probably would rain here. BUt that is pure wishcasting.

I'm still reading models as a MOB to PAM most likely landfall, and if it made it to Louisiana, it'd be Assumption Parish or Eaward, and I like New Orleans.

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I just wanted to take a second and thank all of you guys for sharing your knowledge and your predictions. It would seem the major models are indeed coming to a consensus and giving us a fairly good idea of where this is going. Going over our preperations here in Pensacola and getting prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. I would like to let you guys know that we have already had a LOT of rain in the last 2 weeks here. It's finally stopped the last 2 days, but the ground is waterlogged. Hopefully we will have a few sunny days leading up to this so we are able to absorb the rain that goes along with this system. Keep up the great work and again..thanks so much for sharing your expertise in these matters to those of us who like to get a head start in preparing.

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I just wanted to take a second and thank all of you guys for sharing your knowledge and your predictions. It would seem the major models are indeed coming to a consensus and giving us a fairly good idea of where this is going. Going over our preperations here in Pensacola and getting prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. I would like to let you guys know that we have already had a LOT of rain in the last 2 weeks here. It's finally stopped the last 2 days, but the ground is waterlogged. Hopefully we will have a few sunny days leading up to this so we are able to absorb the rain that goes along with this system. Keep up the great work and again..thanks so much for sharing your expertise in these matters to those of us who like to get a head start in preparing.

Good luck to you, and keep your eyes and ears to the NHC and local authorities....this board is a wonderful place to learn, and toss ideas about, however, in terms of making preparations, 99% of those should be done via the guidance of official authorities.....

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