MJO812 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 GFS defintely more to the left on this run, further off the Peninsula than before. Not as west as the euro. GFS is stronger this run. Lets see if the remnants gets picked up by the trough and goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Landfall is about 50 miles west of the 18z run and slower, but more importantly I think is that it's substantially deeper. Both the GFS and the Euro now have a monster making landfall on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Looks like the trough picked up Isaac at 174 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'd go with a Euro/GFS blend. As usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Joe Bastardi isn't giving up "GFS may be too far west given west coast trough offshore and ridge over colorado. Much more like psns for east coast, not gulf storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Joe Bastardi isn't giving up Why would he suddenly develop a conscience now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'd guess the Atlantic ridge is under-modeled and the lakes trough is over-modeled as it has been at this range many times this summer. Would favor the Euro track though it is likely somewhere in the middle of that and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I like the Euros megatroff in the west day 7. GFS is still nowhere close to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Joe Bastardi isn't giving up :facepalm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Why anyone would be rooting for a northern track is beyond me, it would mean Isaac gets put on permanent hold as it moves over Hispaniola and Cuba... everytime a model forecasts strengthening after significant interaction with the islands, it's almost always wrong & I doubt this would be an exception. Luckily Isaac seems to be moving on the southern edge of guidance, with the center even reforming south... and the overall system moving just S of west. The model spread is actually quite narrow at this point, ranging from Louisiana to Pensacola or so (the good models, at least). It would be foolish to guarantee a Central Gulf landfall, but at this point that would seem to be the best bet. Commence chaos in New Orleans in 3, 2, 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 the center relocation tonight... Recon flights from 23Z 8/22 and 6Z 8/23: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 0Z Euro 8/23/12 Landfall at 168hr, Penascola FL (shift east vs. 12Z), ~ 972 mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 slopgyre is the new hotmess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 slopgyre is the new hotmess. I like hotmess for this one. There's too much slop and not enough gyre for it to be a slopgyre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 not pretty... I'm beginning to wonder if we even attain hurricane before Hispaniola MAX FL WIND 27 KT NE QUAD 06:33:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 5am NHC: an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaac this morning has found a poorly defined inner core with a large area of light winds around a center...which is similar to what an earlier NOAA research mission indicated. Radar data from Guadeloupe and San Juan also indicate a poorly defined inner core convective pattern. Rather than initialize the center of Isaac well to the south of the previous track...I have opted to use a blend of the recon fixes... satellite imagery...data from nearby NOAA buoy 42060...and a 06z consensus forecast position from the GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET models. The initial intensity was also decreased to 35 kt based on data from the recon aircraft and NOAA buoy 42060. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/12 kt. The 00z GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET models did an outstanding job predicting the recent southwestward jog or reformation of the center of Isaac. Those same models are also forecasting Isaac to make a sharp jog to the northwest over the next 12-24 hours...and then steady off on a general west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that... the global and regional models have come into better agreement on Isaac moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge that is forecast to develop after 72 hours across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model has continued its eastward shift over the past 36 hours...and even the latest NOGAPS and Canadian model runs have shifted well to the west across the Florida Peninsula are now no longer considered to be outliers. Due to less spread in the latest NHC model guidance...and the fact that ECMWF has shifted closer to the previous forecast at days 4 and 5...the official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track...and is close to the dynamical consensus models tvca and tv15. Upper-air data from St. Maarten at 00z confirms the dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere between 600 and 300 mb as alluded to in previous discussions. This layer of very dry air has been hindering convective development in the northeastern quadrant for the past 3-4 days. However...the global models are in good agreement on the dry air mixing out over the next 36 hours and the inner core becoming quite moist...which should allow for some steady intensification to occur before Isaac interacts with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Given the impressive upper-level outflow pattern that the cyclone has developed...Isaac is still expected to become a hurricane by 36 hours. After that...however... the the primary impediment to strengthening will be the interaction with the land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. How much the inner core of Isaac is disrupted while over land will determine just how much re-strengthening will occur once the center moves back over water after 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in reasonable agreement with the decay-SHIPS and lgem intensity models. Forecast positions and Max winds init 23/0900z 15.3n 64.0w 35 kt 40 mph 12h 23/1800z 16.2n 65.9w 40 kt 45 mph 24h 24/0600z 16.9n 68.4w 50 kt 60 mph 36h 24/1800z 17.8n 71.1w 65 kt 75 mph 48h 25/0600z 19.1n 73.4w 55 kt 65 mph 72h 26/0600z 21.8n 77.4w 60 kt 70 mph...inland 96h 27/0600z 24.4n 80.9w 65 kt 75 mph...over water 120h 28/0600z 27.4n 83.7w 70 kt 80 mph $$ forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 6Z GFS slightly more east and significantly weaker than 0Z by the time reaches west coast of Florida thru 126 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The remnants make it to SNE. Healthy storm for the mid Atlantic and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Should be good rain producer from Florida up through the SouthEast-Mid Atlantic region. Definitely need to keep tracking the systems. Looks like right now has slowed down quite a bit, which is a good sign to get more organized internally. TS Isaac Overwatch: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 10/probably Joyce looks like a fish, but its early, and there are more AEWs where Issac and 10 came from. Not giving up hope for the NYC subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 The general Atlantic thread still exists for posts like that, Ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Won't redraw yesterday's map. Only small adjustments. Orange Louisiana line now goes to GAO/GRI, yellow line to about LCH. Magenta line to near PAM and the entire magenta Ed-cast line is barely shifted South, then West. Avoids worst of Hispaniola, which increases magenta instensity to possibly a 3. at landfall in Florida. Eastern orange line to CHS, yellow line to ILM. Still close to GFS guidance, more a tweak than a wholesale change. Might go farther West, but new 6Z GFS says not to get too crazy, Guesstimating 90% landfall inside yellow, 60% inside orange. Fairly close to most of the models, Western edge. Euro is an outlier, although coming closer to the rest, but I am showing a touch of respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The remnants make it to SNE. Healthy storm for the mid Atlantic and northeast. A major wiff west of I-95 according to this GFS loop...lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F23%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Needs to be about 100 miles west of current track to avoid the mountains in Haiti/E. Cuba. Much better chance of holding together if it crosses W. Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 In wish cast mode, with most of the convection being South of the poorly organized center, I am hoping for a center reformation to the South, well below 15º. Josh probably doesn't want to chase in Vermillion Parish, but they have good sea food in Abbeville.e were Louisiana storms that didn't do much for us rain wise. Maybe I should wishcast it to BPT. Technically Texas, and it probably would rain here. BUt that is pure wishcasting. I'm still reading models as a MOB to PAM most likely landfall, and if it made it to Louisiana, it'd be Assumption Parish or Eaward, and I like New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 BTW, East of 50ºW, this would be a 50 or 55 knot storm. CIMSS ADT gives it a 3.6 T score. Amazing what aircraft can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Sweet, the GFS is basically riding down the entire length of Cuba. That should do wonders for Isaac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I just wanted to take a second and thank all of you guys for sharing your knowledge and your predictions. It would seem the major models are indeed coming to a consensus and giving us a fairly good idea of where this is going. Going over our preperations here in Pensacola and getting prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. I would like to let you guys know that we have already had a LOT of rain in the last 2 weeks here. It's finally stopped the last 2 days, but the ground is waterlogged. Hopefully we will have a few sunny days leading up to this so we are able to absorb the rain that goes along with this system. Keep up the great work and again..thanks so much for sharing your expertise in these matters to those of us who like to get a head start in preparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 whens a good time to talk about final landfall intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I just wanted to take a second and thank all of you guys for sharing your knowledge and your predictions. It would seem the major models are indeed coming to a consensus and giving us a fairly good idea of where this is going. Going over our preperations here in Pensacola and getting prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. I would like to let you guys know that we have already had a LOT of rain in the last 2 weeks here. It's finally stopped the last 2 days, but the ground is waterlogged. Hopefully we will have a few sunny days leading up to this so we are able to absorb the rain that goes along with this system. Keep up the great work and again..thanks so much for sharing your expertise in these matters to those of us who like to get a head start in preparing. Good luck to you, and keep your eyes and ears to the NHC and local authorities....this board is a wonderful place to learn, and toss ideas about, however, in terms of making preparations, 99% of those should be done via the guidance of official authorities..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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