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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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That product is terrible. I thought it was going to be the hotness when Evans first put it together. I was totally wrong.

I thought it had some intrinsic value for entertainment/sojourn. For instance, I had forgotten that Katrina intensified while over land in Southern Florida - at least I heard that discussed. I had forgotten that discussion until I reviewed that track.

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Say "thank you" to wxmx

http://db.hellohelp....rch.php#map_top

Thanks guys, Adam that's a great site...nice job wxmx.

Thanks guys ... I will probably add some other filters/features sometime this year.

That's a good one.

You can also use:

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

and click on a particular point or type in coordinates (lon, lat not lat, lon) as well as strength under "refine search".

You can see the top 10 analogues here:

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

Select a storm, click "top 10 analog tracks". Analogues are determined by a weighted average of closest lat, lon, date and intensity.

:)

I lack some of the features those sites have, but I also have some they don't. I'll try to list some:

- Landfall position for cyclones in the Atlantic from 1850-1936 and from 1980-2011...including United States, Mexico, Central America and Cuba (even those outside the 00/06/12/18z hours)...plus Andrew

- Landfall position for cyclones in the EPac from 1991-2011 for the EPac

- Complete track or just points of the track that meet the filters

- Many filters that can be chained, including pressure, wind speed, translation speed, latitude, longitude

- All basins are accounted for

- Undocumented feature to get cyclogenesis (or starting point of the track) using direction=-1

Stuff that I will add soon:

- Currently only the official RSMC is shown...I will add a filter to choose different RSMC available

- Filters for the landfall points

Ok, shameless plug is over now :)

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Small changes to my amateurishly bad and unofficial MS Paint forecast map for TS Isaac. It most closely resembles GFS, which makes it a little tricky, coming from the SE or SSW towards a peninsula that trends generally North/South means small errors mean huge distances in landfall point.

Again, yellow and orange lines are handwaving, 90% chance more or less inside yellow, 60% inside orange. Thick magenta line is Ed-track. Minimal hurricane approaching Hispaniola, based on slow organization. SHIPS pushes 80 knots, I'll go 65 +/- 10 knots. If it misses Hispaniola completely, and crosses Cuba West of the mountains, it should be a major in the Gulf. Sort of following GFDL guidance, it is near a Cat 1 when it passes the Keys and comes close but misses Naples. Cat 2 on this track second landfall East of Panama City. Towards either end of the orange cone, stronger. Cat 3 in Gulf, Cat 2, maybe approaching Cat 3 in Carolinas. In deference to European being insistent on Louisiana, yellow line moved to 7R4, orange line shifted to MOB.

Not a huge change from yesterday morning's MS Paint amateur-cast, not terribly far off the NHC forecast, and near the consensus. A tad right/West of most of the models, in slight deference to the Euro. Euro ensembles not quite out yet, but a few GFS 12Z ensemble members are West of the operational. The Canadian was not considered.

Interested amateur. Can't rule out a Metfan pleasing Irene multiple landfall TS, although I suspect the Eastern yellow line would probably have a heart breaking recurve coming off the Carolinas. About 20 people posted as I worked on my Paint and reasoning writeup.

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i think what the euro is failing to input in the models is the strong east to west winds that will be coming across the united states when it get close to florida.. even if it did make it into the eastern gulf its would get shunted back to the east.. with that being said the center of location will also have a big part in the trackso once its established.. so its pretty much a wait and see ordeal right now..

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i think what the euro is failing to input in the models is the strong east to west winds that will be coming across the united states when it get close to florida.. even if it did make it into the eastern gulf its would get shunted back to the east.. with that being said the center of location will also have a big part in the trackso once its established.. so its pretty much a wait and see ordeal right now..

How strong are those winds? Or, I guess, how strong are they forecasted to be at the time Isaac is close that it would be impacted by the winds?

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Wouldn't it be funny if this system incurred upon the high terrain of H. and it just disappeared ?

Would love to see that happen. I selfishly want to visit NOLA this October and am more worried about the trend leaning into the central Gulf than I am about the storm moving up the western side of Florida.

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2 centers now,classic slopgyre. How they twirl into eachother may determing the eventual track. Kind of amuzing. GFS does show the H5 low near the SW vortex.

man... 2 distinct vort maxes indeed, and last recon had northerly winds on the west side of the prior LLC... watch this thing Fujiwhara around itself...

definitely sloppy... vis sat suggests the new southeast center will dominate

also note the latest hunter run seems to be focusing on this 2nd center:

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I don't know the synoptic pattern at the time of this tropical storm but it has a VERY similar projected track.

Looks like this storm stayed a tropical storm the entire time.

Tropical Storm Chris 1988

The track isn't that similar now (mainly because the bulk of guidance now does not favor a track up the east coast), maybe with some of the model runs 24+ hrs ago, but it seems to be trending west of this type of solution currently.

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