sctvman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It will be interesting to see what happens with the eye. The 12Z shows a huge hit for NO and east of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 TWC talked about a possible center relocation to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So did the 18Z model update show up anywhere? NCAR doesn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 If true, Euro ftw. True to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So did the 18Z model update show up anywhere? NCAR doesn't have it. It will start coming out around 6 PM. On GFS models, you usually can expect the model runs to come out at the following times: 0Z - 12 AM EDT 6Z- 6 AM EDT 12Z- 12 PM EDT 18Z- 6 PM EDT ECMWF will usually come out 1-2 hours after the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 That product is terrible. I thought it was going to be the hotness when Evans first put it together. I was totally wrong. I thought it had some intrinsic value for entertainment/sojourn. For instance, I had forgotten that Katrina intensified while over land in Southern Florida - at least I heard that discussed. I had forgotten that discussion until I reviewed that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Say "thank you" to wxmx http://db.hellohelp....rch.php#map_top Thanks guys, Adam that's a great site...nice job wxmx. Thanks guys ... I will probably add some other filters/features sometime this year. That's a good one. You can also use: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# and click on a particular point or type in coordinates (lon, lat not lat, lon) as well as strength under "refine search". You can see the top 10 analogues here: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Select a storm, click "top 10 analog tracks". Analogues are determined by a weighted average of closest lat, lon, date and intensity. I lack some of the features those sites have, but I also have some they don't. I'll try to list some: - Landfall position for cyclones in the Atlantic from 1850-1936 and from 1980-2011...including United States, Mexico, Central America and Cuba (even those outside the 00/06/12/18z hours)...plus Andrew - Landfall position for cyclones in the EPac from 1991-2011 for the EPac - Complete track or just points of the track that meet the filters - Many filters that can be chained, including pressure, wind speed, translation speed, latitude, longitude - All basins are accounted for - Undocumented feature to get cyclogenesis (or starting point of the track) using direction=-1 Stuff that I will add soon: - Currently only the official RSMC is shown...I will add a filter to choose different RSMC available - Filters for the landfall points Ok, shameless plug is over now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Small changes to my amateurishly bad and unofficial MS Paint forecast map for TS Isaac. It most closely resembles GFS, which makes it a little tricky, coming from the SE or SSW towards a peninsula that trends generally North/South means small errors mean huge distances in landfall point. Again, yellow and orange lines are handwaving, 90% chance more or less inside yellow, 60% inside orange. Thick magenta line is Ed-track. Minimal hurricane approaching Hispaniola, based on slow organization. SHIPS pushes 80 knots, I'll go 65 +/- 10 knots. If it misses Hispaniola completely, and crosses Cuba West of the mountains, it should be a major in the Gulf. Sort of following GFDL guidance, it is near a Cat 1 when it passes the Keys and comes close but misses Naples. Cat 2 on this track second landfall East of Panama City. Towards either end of the orange cone, stronger. Cat 3 in Gulf, Cat 2, maybe approaching Cat 3 in Carolinas. In deference to European being insistent on Louisiana, yellow line moved to 7R4, orange line shifted to MOB. Not a huge change from yesterday morning's MS Paint amateur-cast, not terribly far off the NHC forecast, and near the consensus. A tad right/West of most of the models, in slight deference to the Euro. Euro ensembles not quite out yet, but a few GFS 12Z ensemble members are West of the operational. The Canadian was not considered. Interested amateur. Can't rule out a Metfan pleasing Irene multiple landfall TS, although I suspect the Eastern yellow line would probably have a heart breaking recurve coming off the Carolinas. About 20 people posted as I worked on my Paint and reasoning writeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It will start coming out around 6 PM. I meant the conslidated guidance that normally should have been out at 3-4PM for 18Z (early cycle), here http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al092012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wouldn't it be funny if this system incurred upon the high terrain of H. and it just disappeared ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I meant the conslidated guidance that normally should have been out at 3-4PM for 18Z (early cycle), here http://www.ral.ucar..../2012/al092012/ Oh sorry, I never pay attention to those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 i think what the euro is failing to input in the models is the strong east to west winds that will be coming across the united states when it get close to florida.. even if it did make it into the eastern gulf its would get shunted back to the east.. with that being said the center of location will also have a big part in the trackso once its established.. so its pretty much a wait and see ordeal right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 i think what the euro is failing to input in the models is the strong east to west winds that will be coming across the united states when it get close to florida.. even if it did make it into the eastern gulf its would get shunted back to the east.. with that being said the center of location will also have a big part in the trackso once its established.. so its pretty much a wait and see ordeal right now.. How strong are those winds? Or, I guess, how strong are they forecasted to be at the time Isaac is close that it would be impacted by the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 How strong are those winds? Or, I guess, how strong are they forecasted to be at the time Isaac is close that it would be impacted by the winds? Especially if they are east to west...why would Isaac get pushed against the flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Very interesting conglomeration of musings from the red-taggers in the main thread. Definitely worth a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wouldn't it be funny if this system incurred upon the high terrain of H. and it just disappeared ? Would love to see that happen. I selfishly want to visit NOLA this October and am more worried about the trend leaning into the central Gulf than I am about the storm moving up the western side of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 2 centers now,classic slopgyre. How they twirl into eachother may determing the eventual track. Kind of amuzing. GFS does show the H5 low near the SW vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So can we officially call this off for the east coast...at least north of Florida? No way I'm hitching my wagon to the GFDL/NOGAPS/CMC train.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So can we officially call this off for the east coast...at least north of Florida? No way I'm hitching my wagon to the GFDL/NOGAPS/CMC train.... Nobody from Cape Hatteras to the upper TX coast is out of the game yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Nobody from Cape Hatteras to the upper TX coast is out of the game yet. That was the threat area 5 days ago, i'm sure it is much more refined now. My guess is anywhere from New Orleans to Eastern Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 That was the threat area 5 days ago, i'm sure it is much more refined now. My guess is anywhere from New Orleans to Eastern Florida. There were talks in the official thread about Texas still being an outside shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 2 centers now,classic slopgyre. How they twirl into eachother may determing the eventual track. Kind of amuzing. GFS does show the H5 low near the SW vortex. man... 2 distinct vort maxes indeed, and last recon had northerly winds on the west side of the prior LLC... watch this thing Fujiwhara around itself... definitely sloppy... vis sat suggests the new southeast center will dominate also note the latest hunter run seems to be focusing on this 2nd center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'm going to be a selfish South Florida and hope for a track similar to the 18z GFDL, but I'm not holding my breath. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I don't know the synoptic pattern at the time of this tropical storm but it has a VERY similar projected track. Looks like this storm stayed a tropical storm the entire time. Tropical Storm Chris 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I don't know the synoptic pattern at the time of this tropical storm but it has a VERY similar projected track. Looks like this storm stayed a tropical storm the entire time. Tropical Storm Chris 1988 The track isn't that similar now (mainly because the bulk of guidance now does not favor a track up the east coast), maybe with some of the model runs 24+ hrs ago, but it seems to be trending west of this type of solution currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Anybody know where I can find 500mb Dew Point maps for the Caribbean from the NAM/GFS. I want to see how the models initialized the dry mid-level air from the soundings in the lesser antillies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/natlupper.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Stronger and further southwest @ 120hrs. Troff in the lakes not as amped so it will keep going northwest for a while. H7 stregnth would indicate a major hurrticane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Landfall on the panhandle at 144 as a fairly deep system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OpieStorm Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 GFS defintely more to the left on this run, further off the Peninsula than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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