Srain Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'll see mentions in severe season in AFDs from OUN or FWD or TOP that SPC requested extra balloon releases, and I think I recall mention in Gulf Coast AFDs about extra balloon releases pre-Gustav and Ike, Is there a central NCEP/HPC site that mentions/tasks whether certain forecast offices, like SJU, have been requested to do four launches per day? NCEP Operational Status Message Wed Aug 22 14:52:00 2012 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 221451 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1451Z WED AUG 22 2012 THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED THE INITIATION OF SPECIAL 6 HOURLY SOUNDINGS STARTING AT 18Z THU AUG 23 FROM WFO SAN JUAN AND ALL OFFICES WITHIN THE FOLLOWING STATES: FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I would rather see someone posting NAM images, than some ***hole, power-hungry mod going after one of our most valuable tropical posters because he has nothing more to do. You need to either start contributing positively to these threads or quit posting in the tropical threads. These types of posts are getting tiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 There is nothing wrong with posting the Nam updates in a banter thread. Jeez. I think what many are wondering is why you or others even bother to post the NAM in the first place... it's not like it's adding anything useful to the discussion. In fact, in some cases it can be detrimental when discussing short-medium range tropical forecasting. A blank post is just as useful as an 81hr or 84hr NAM tropics post, i.e. you're just wasting space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I think what many are wondering is why you or others even bother to post the NAM in the first place... it's not like it's adding anything useful to the discussion. In fact, in some cases it can be detrimental when discussing short-medium range tropical forecasting. A blank post is just as useful as an 81hr or 84hr NAM tropics post, i.e. you're just wasting space. Precisely, especially, as Lookout mentioned, when it comes to newcomers to the board who aren't familiar with the board dynamic or the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 NCEP Operational Status Message Wed Aug 22 14:52:00 2012 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 221451 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1451Z WED AUG 22 2012 THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED THE INITIATION OF SPECIAL 6 HOURLY SOUNDINGS STARTING AT 18Z THU AUG 23 FROM WFO SAN JUAN AND ALL OFFICES WITHIN THE FOLLOWING STATES: FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Teach a man to fish... I'll bookmark the link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Teach a man to fish... I'll bookmark the link... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I think some here need to stay out of the banter thread if they don't know what banter is. Maybe you two should stop being clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wxrisk.com 12z GFS shwis massive SHIFT WEST... at 120 its over western Cuba and 144 hrs it is in the eastern Gulf... if it big win for the ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 when will the 12z runs of the gfdl and hwrf typically update on the fsu page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 it looks like the official track would be fairly rare Many have mentioned the ridge strength and other factors greatly reducing the chances of the recurve/e. coast track. Given the euro + climo I wonder about a track more towards c. or w. Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 What is the purpose of a banter thread? To post things you would not find in the regular thread. If we're not allowed to post banter in a banter thread, then maybe we shouldn't even have banter threads anymore. If metfan wants to talk about the NAM being north (presumably because he thinks it means something for his backyard) then he should take it to the subforum threads. It's just a waste of time, particularly at this range and where the storm is located, to discuss it here. If you can't figure that out then I have to question how you got your degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can I post the RSM in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Maybe you two should stop being clueless. Have you confirmed that he has a Met degree? What's the vetting process around here? I'd bet Randy has a Doctorate in Atmospheric Science before guessing Analog had one class in Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Not certain if there is now a list of models That Shall Not Be Named but the two globals with far north/east tracks have shifted south/west a great deal in their 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Not certain if there is now a list of models That Shall Not Be Named but the two globals with far north/east tracks have shifted south/west a great deal in their 12Z runs. Here is a good starting point: Order of what models should be posted during a tropical threat: ECMWF ECMWF Ensembles (interchangeable with Op) GFS UKMET GFS Ensembles GFDL GGEM HWRF NOGAPS JMA GGEM ensembles NAM DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Here is a good starting point: I should probably add FIM to the list as well... somewhere between the UKMET and GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm assuming the CMC2 and NGX2 are the CMC/GGEM and NOGAPS, right? If so, then the 12z plot I'm seeing is showing old data for those two models. If that is the case, every model seems to be in agreement with a FL hit, OR slightly west or east. none are showing the Carolinas anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Euro verbatim would be a heck of a good way to end the central plains drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 just noticed the tittle.. geez lol.. it should just say "Issac Banter thread, idiots please post here" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Would anybody know of a site that allows you to look at the track of previous storms that were located near a current tropical system.....say Isaac for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Would anybody know of a site that allows you to look at the track of previous storms that were located near a current tropical system.....say Isaac for example? Say "thank you" to wxmx http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php#map_top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Would anybody know of a site that allows you to look at the track of previous storms that were located near a current tropical system.....say Isaac for example? Say "thank you" to wxmx http://db.hellohelp....rch.php#map_top That's a good one. You can also use: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# and click on a particular point or type in coordinates (lon, lat not lat, lon) as well as strength under "refine search". You can see the top 10 analogues here: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Select a storm, click "top 10 analog tracks". Analogues are determined by a weighted average of closest lat, lon, date and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 That's a good one. You can also use: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# and click on a particular point or type in coordinates (lon, lat not lat, lon) as well as strength under "refine search". You can see the top 10 analogues here: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Select a storm, click "top 10 analog tracks". Analogues are determined by a weighted average of closest lat, lon, date and intensity. This is fantastic! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 You can see the top 10 analogues here: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Select a storm, click "top 10 analog tracks". Analogues are determined by a weighted average of closest lat, lon, date and intensity. Oh lord, Irene is on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Oh lord, Irene is on there. That product is terrible. I thought it was going to be the hotness when Evans first put it together. I was totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 That product is terrible. I thought it was going to be the hotness when Evans first put it together. I was totally wrong. Yeah... just looking at the amount of east coast strikes is..eh. Analog tracks should take into account the overall synoptic setup. I'm not sure that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah... just looking at the amount of east coast strikes is..eh. Analog tracks should take into account the overall synoptic setup. I'm not sure that does. No, it doesn't take anything more than lat, lon, movement, and intensity into account. Like I said, it's not useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 That's a good one. You can also use: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# and click on a particular point or type in coordinates (lon, lat not lat, lon) as well as strength under "refine search". You can see the top 10 analogues here: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Select a storm, click "top 10 analog tracks". Analogues are determined by a weighted average of closest lat, lon, date and intensity. Ironically, almost every analogue is outside the NHC cone, and the envelope of current solutions for that matter, wrt LF locations: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Thanks guys, Adam that's a great site...nice job wxmx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ah, I see Tropical Storm Chris on that analog list - the ultimate wet fart of Atlantic tropical cyclones. That Chris had THAT track, and THAT time of year without ever intensifying beyond 1006mb is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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