Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Despite being a day old, and being sorely tempted to adjust the red center line a smidge North, and then having it come at Florida more from the SE than SSE, my poorly made amateur MS Paint depiction fropm this time yesterday seems pretty decent. I actually like my orange line on the left towards the NC/SC state line, everything considered. Different cycle model runs pull me a bit West and then a bit East, but MS Paint is hard, and the basic idea seems ok. I could shift the yellow line on the left from near MSY towards ARA in deference to the 0Z Euro, but I'll wait another model cycle. Maybe after the full 12Z set is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I believe Issac will indeed be a larger system then previously advertised. This is a SE Florida storm, not GOM. Front will keep it out of GOM and land interaction before will shape direction. Entire SE USA will be impacted and Issac will bend back East after hit in South Carolina...however effects from large system will be felt as far north as the Cheaspeake Bay. The corpse of last weeks front will keep Isaac from possibly affecting the eastern Gulf? My impression is whatever is left of the front is near the coast, weak, and retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Two cents worth...I believe Issac avoids the GOM...it will be a South Florida hit and ride the east coast with secondary landfall in South Carolina. Question (seriously) - can you explain your reasoning behind this? thanks Agreed. Banter thread or not, someone making what seems to be a forecast should provide some reasoning as to why they came up with their scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Now Henry thinks Isaac will go up the east coast of Florida. Yesterday he thought that it was going to go into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I can't find any evidence to overturn what most were thinking 24 hours ago. It still looks like Isaac will strengthen and become a hurricane before it reaches Hispaniola. If you believe that part of the forecast, then you have to discount the ECMWF right now. All of the other reliable guidance sends Isaac to South Florida. So unless someone has a really good reason to forecast something else (and I haven't seen one yet), you have to think South Florida is the target. Can't really be more specific at this time, could be closer to Naples or Miami. The most important uncertainty is the land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba. That will determine if Isaac is a serious monster or a weaker/developing storm when it reaches Florida. The second most important uncertainty is if Isaac can get back over the eastern Gulf. It would only take a slight adjustment in the track for this scenario to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It all depends on interaction with Cuba and Hispanola and how Isaac reacts. If it can get through without much weakening, there should be about 36 hours of low shear, very warm water conditions for Isaac to turn into a monster heading toward Miami. Then again, Isaac could get torn up by the mountains and we could just as easily see a tropical storm/cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 NCEP site used to allow display of NAM in Caribbean, the edge of the display wasn't far East of the Antilles, I don't know if the actual model domain extends to where Isaac is. It is bounded, IIRC, by the previous GFS run, its hour 12 boundaries are from the previous GFS hour 18 conditions.. It appears the trained professionals don't put much stock in it as a tropical model. I don't know if the performance improves on systems further into its domain. Not sure what, if any, differences exist between the NAM-WRF and the HWRF, as far as model physics, although obviously the HWRF nests its cyclones inside a larger outer grid. Good thing we have a banter thread to discuss how/why NAM is so disrespected as a tropical model. The NAM outer domain (12km resolution) is quite large (solid black domain, west of Hawaii to east of the Carribean): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namgrids/namnests_domains.jpg The NAM also uses both partial cycling (restarting from GFS ICs twice a day, and spinning up 12 hours through DA cycling to get the ICs) and GFS boundary conditions (as noted above, from the 6hr old run of the GFS). The NAM-NMMB (not really WRF anymore) is completely different than HWRF in almost every component, including dynamics, physics, resolution, data assimilation, literally everything. The HWRF nests are two-way whereas the NAM nests are only one way (i.e. no feedback from the higher resolution domains to the coarser/driving domain). Honestly, the NAM used to be impossible to use for TC forecasting (and not necessarily because of the model itself, but because they never applied any TC initialization techniques). I think now that they use partial cycling, it is at least respectible (ish) for those storms far enough inside the domain (i.e. not suffering from boundary condition blending/mismatching). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 based on what? There sure are a lot of people posting what they think it will do without any reasoning whatsoever. Personally, as long as this stays in the banter thread, i don't have problem with it per se..that's what the purpose of the thread is for... but it still looks stupid and could affect people's decisions. Given how many people who will visit this board and are not familiar with the purpose of the thread, they could take this stuff seriously. So people should think about that. I'm going to edit the title I think to make clear that this is NOT the thread for people to take seriously and refer to the main thread. I don't mind people giving their personal opinion on it per se but these wishcasts, gut feelings, etc are annoying as hell. And if you don't give some sort of reason for it, it means nothing. And remember, visitors who come here because of this storm could take such comments seriously..and then end up spending money based upon what you have said....or not take action when they should and be screwed. Just food for thought for those who say it will do such and such without giving a reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Attn: HurricaneJosh 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "where is the storm going, how are the winds for..?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It all depends on interaction with Cuba and Hispanola and how Isaac reacts. If it can get through without much weakening, there should be about 36 hours of low shear, very warm water conditions for Isaac to turn into a monster heading toward Miami. Then again, Isaac could get torn up by the mountains and we could just as easily see a tropical storm/cat 1. It is an interesting relationship because storms like Frederic and David, for example, showed a classic northward bend in track before resuming a more westerly motion. Despite their interactions with the 1000-2500m elevation and northerly bend, it was the overall steering flow that dictated their ultimate path (east of Florida or West of Florida) and strength prior to elevation impact. David, a strong category 5 hurricane, took the northerly bend across Hispaniola and also felt the effects of a residual weakness in the Gulf/Southeast. All 3 things gave David latitude. On the other hand, Frederic and Claudette (no northerly jog across Hispaniola) remained more westerly moving in as a much weaker storm (TD/TS). Frederic missed the weakness by remaining low-key and took advantage of the building Central Plains ridge. Forward speed and strength modulate interactions with Hispaniola and Cuba. If all things can be in a balance, it is possible the circulations in the z-direction remain vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I started an Isaac image archive thread if that is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On the other hand, Frederic and Claudette (no northerly jog across Hispaniola) remained more westerly moving in as a much weaker storm (TD/TS). Frederic missed the weakness by remaining low-key and took advantage of the building Central Plains ridge. Frederic was badly hosed for its early life by David outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I started an Isaac image archive thread if that is ok. That's cool by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Frederic was badly hosed for its early life by David outflow. I'd assume its decision to go island-hopping and mountain climbing didn't help matters, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Frederic was badly hosed for its early life by David outflow. Indeed. Interestingly, all the 1979 events came just after AAM spikes and overall -dAAM/dT occuring. Our situation currently and ahead will be the opposite. I wonder if this will keep a propensity for troughs to continue in the Southeast. I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Indeed. Interestingly, all the 1979 events came just after AAM spikes and overall -dAAM/dT occuring. Our situation currently and ahead will be the opposite. I wonder if this will keep a propensity for troughs to continue in the Southeast. I have no idea. It certainly will be good reason for the amplification of the North Pacific / western North American pattern in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Nam at 81 hours. Much further northeast than the GFS and the Euro. Also further north and east of the previous run. Bahamas incoming on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Really? Now we're going after Josh? Does somebody need to find you a hobby? How is this still more relevant than metfan's latest NAM update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Nam at 81 hours. Much further northeast than the GFS and the Euro. Also further north and east of the previous run. Bahamas incoming on this run. Watch out Bermuda. I'll start praying in a bit, after the Korean comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Really? Now we're going after Josh? Does somebody need to find you a hobby? LOL. Josh and I are very good friends IRL and I was joking around with him. Just because I think you're a terrible poster doesn't mean I think everyone is a terrible poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 And remember, visitors who come here because of this storm could take such comments seriously..and then end up spending money based upon what you have said....or not take action when they should and be screwed. Just food for thought for those who say it will do such and such without giving a reason why. I agree with the annoyance and making it clear the thread isn't serious business, but if someone who knows nothing ignores all expert information to search on the internet and find some random kid's wishcast and believes that over the experts, that's their own fault. This site's intended audience is not (or at least shouldn't be IMO) them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yet another trip to visit family in Ft. Myers made interesting. Not too long after they finished settling insurance claims...from Hurricane CHARLEY. If anyone's chasing I'd say flights to Ft. Myers (RSW) or Miami (MIA) would be a good start. I've found RSW to be cheaper when heading down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can someone post the early 12z ATCF guidance? My stuff appears to be from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can someone post the early 12z ATCF guidance? My stuff appears to be from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yet another trip to visit family in Ft. Myers made interesting. Not too long after they finished settling insurance claims...from Hurricane CHARLEY. If anyone's chasing I'd say flights to Ft. Myers (RSW) or Miami (MIA) would be a good start. I've found RSW to be cheaper when heading down there. I always found ktbw to be the best deal. 5 days out, so swfl strike is far from guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'd assume its decision to go island-hopping and mountain climbing didn't help matters, either. This isn't a new discussion, but of: 1) A 35 kt TS 2) A 65 kt Hurricane 3) A 120 kt Hurricane That passes directly over Hispaniola and then is over open water for the next 2 days, and ALL other factors being the same.....(extremely favorable upper-level environment and SSTs) Which is going to be the stronger system in 2 days? Essentially the question is whether a system with a defined core that is torn to pieces by Shredderola is actually worse off than a system without a defined core to shred.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Heading off to Portugal next week. The Portugese islands were just sideswiped by the remnants of Gordon as it moved across the Azores. Now I need to watch the East Coast re: next week's flight. A cool note to this trip is that my flight stops over in the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 There sure are a lot of people posting what they think it will do without any reasoning whatsoever. Personally, as long as this stays in the banter thread, i don't have problem with it per se..that's what the purpose of the thread is for... but it still looks stupid and could affect people's decisions. Given how many people who will visit this board and are not familiar with the purpose of the thread, they could take this stuff seriously. So people should think about that. I'm going to edit the title I think to make clear that this is NOT the thread for people to take seriously and refer to the main thread. I don't mind people giving their personal opinion on it per se but these wishcasts, gut feelings, etc are annoying as hell. And if you don't give some sort of reason for it, it means nothing. And remember, visitors who come here because of this storm could take such comments seriously..and then end up spending money based upon what you have said....or not take action when they should and be screwed. Just food for thought for those who say it will do such and such without giving a reason why. Great post, and this is a key reason why it truly bothers me when I see the wishcasts or postings of the NAM or DGEX without any understand of the meteorology around the storm or usefulness of those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'll see mentions in severe season in AFDs from OUN or FWD or TOP that SPC requested extra balloon releases, and I think I recall mention in Gulf Coast AFDs about extra balloon releases pre-Gustav and Ike, Is there a central NCEP/HPC site that mentions/tasks whether certain forecast offices, like SJU, have been requested to do four launches per day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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