Jim Marusak Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 am i placing the center wrong on this storm on my own eyes, or does it seem like Issac is making a bit of a jog just a hair to the south of the NHC track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 4:54 AM, Jim Marusak said: am i placing the center wrong on this storm on my own eyes, or does it seem like Issac is making a bit of a jog just a hair to the south of the NHC track? The center still appears to be dislocated from the convection, but you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 4:49 AM, Snow88 said: 0z GGEM at 84 hours has Isaac north of the Bahamas. More like Turks & Caicos to be accurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 4:20 AM, Analog96 said: I don't know if anyone on these forums would really "like" that. Speak for yourself. We're in an exceptional drought here - people (including myself) would love the rain to meander for a few days over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z GGEM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 4:19 AM, Analog96 said: Orlando is inland... Orlando can get damaging hurricanes...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 those images from the canadian global are showing a heck of a left turn. not saying it isn't possible, but wow i can't buy this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z NOGAPS ( FWIW ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 the ooz nogaps is presenting a scenario that I have seen more than a few times, and one i could believe. not saying i think the right turn up the coast is the way issac may go. but if he goes up the coast, the nogaps would be more plausible than the 00z canadian global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 00Z UKMET is KAMX to KTBW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z Euro is more northeast on this run. Still not like the GFS, GEFS,GGEM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 6:23 AM, Snow88 said: 0z Euro is more northeast on this run. Still not like the GFS, GEFS,GGEM though. A good rule that most often verifies involves the UKMET. You can more easily discount the euro when the UKMET has a different solution, which is more similar to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 6:24 AM, Riptide said: A good rule that most often verifies involves the UKMET. You can more easily discount the euro when the UKMET has a different solution, which is more similar to the 18z GFS. You just called the Euro a crap model in the other thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 6:41 AM, andyhb said: You just called the Euro a crap model in the other thread... What is your point? I was posting about the UKmet, which is significantly east of the euro and aligned with the rest of the guidance. 0z UKmet 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 6:24 AM, Riptide said: A good rule that most often verifies involves the UKMET. You can more easily discount the euro when the UKMET has a different solution, which is more similar to the 18z GFS. Never heard of this UKMET rule, it's usually a little too strong with ridges. Not sure I would discount the Euro just based on UKMET alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 00z EURO is a Central Louisiana landfall. It keeps it weak until it's in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 3:42 AM, Ian said: How can you post here so much without learning anything? We should have a lot to look forward to this winter then if we took the 84 hr NAM every time. WOOT!!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 nam has this over western PR at 36hrs. Well north from the 00z run. I know its the NAM and yada yada yada but i do find this interesting Edit: Hr 84 NAM ftw. Avoids Hispaniola and bombs out in the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 6:24 AM, Riptide said: A good rule that most often verifies involves the UKMET. You can more easily discount the euro when the UKMET has a different solution, which is more similar to the 18z GFS. That's a terrible rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Are we really even posting the NAM in tropical threads? You might as well make a model in MS Paint. It would be just as useful. I know this is a banter thread and all, but do we really need to see the NAM and DGEX, which are completely worthless in these situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 9:55 AM, am19psu said: Are we really even posting the NAM in tropical threads? You might as well make a model in MS Paint. It would be just as useful. I know this is a banter thread and all, but do we really need to see the NAM and DGEX, which are completely worthless in these situations? You know you could just do your job and give us insight you might have and delete posts that are actually irrelevant and such. If someone wants to post the Nam let them. I agree its like throwing darts especially at this point but I'm seeing the ggem and the nogaps so why not. Just let it be, we're dealing with a developing tropical system, people are going to post 20 different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 11:22 AM, ddweatherman said: You know you could just do your job and give us insight you might have and delete posts that are actually irrelevant and such. If someone wants to post the Nam let them. I agree its like throwing darts especially at this point but I'm seeing the ggem and the nogaps so why not. Just let it be, we're dealing with a developing tropical system, people are going to post 20 different things. Telling people which models are irrelevant isn't part of my "job?" Isn't that giving insight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The overall trend seemed to be to the north and east from the 00z model guidance. Interesting. Will probably change again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 11:27 AM, am19psu said: Telling people which models are irrelevant isn't part of my "job?" Isn't that giving insight? Im proud of you, you can be nice after all. Snowstorm likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Two cents worth...I believe Issac avoids the GOM...it will be a South Florida hit and ride the east coast with secondary landfall in South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 On 8/22/2012 at 11:48 AM, SNO said: Two cents worth...I believe Issac avoids the GOM...it will be a South Florida hit and ride the east coast with secondary landfall in South Carolina. Question (seriously) - can you explain your reasoning behind this? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 looking at the models, still looks like a FL hit big question is w or e part of the state. I doubt anyone north of NC even sees much rain, IMHO FWIW TTYL Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 my rookie eye see this growing into a large storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I believe Issac will indeed be a larger system then previously advertised. This is a SE Florida storm, not GOM. Front will keep it out of GOM and land interaction before will shape direction. Entire SE USA will be impacted and Issac will bend back East after hit in South Carolina...however effects from large system will be felt as far north as the Cheaspeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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