am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Very interesting the 12z Euro today.. Here's the map. Still we're talking 10 days away.. Lots can change.. If this system becomes trpoical storm status it will be Joyce.. That's not TD Ten. That's the wave behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah it appears that the best solution is a tandem recurve of 10L with Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 You might be right.. Just checking the satellite over near Africa.. That new wave coming off the coast is probably what the Euro is potentially showing with this wave. So, thats probably what you've saw... Well, still 10 days away.. Lots of time to watch.. That's not TD Ten. That's the wave behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 22 Location: 13.8°N 39.5°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 35 mph TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012 1100 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS BEEN PRODUCING PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE ROAD AHEAD IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OBSTACLE COURSE. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE IN SOME FASHION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN AFTER THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE COULD THEN BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO ITS WEST. THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE NEVER SHOWN MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS CYCLONE...AND THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING JUST ABOVE THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 295/15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON DAY 3. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST ON THIS CYCLE BUT IS STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS TRACK ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.4N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.6N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 TEN, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL962012 AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 215W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082006, , BEST, 0, 105N, 239W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 102N, 262W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 274W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082106, , BEST, 0, 102N, 288W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 303W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 317W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082200, , BEST, 0, 109N, 329W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082206, , BEST, 0, 115N, 343W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 250, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 357W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, AL, 10, 2012082218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 373W, 30, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 250, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, AL, 10, 2012082300, , BEST, 0, 136N, 388W, 30, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, AL, 10, 2012082306, , BEST, 0, 142N, 400W, 30, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 225, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, AL, 10, 2012082312, , BEST, 0, 149N, 416W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 40, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, TS Joyce on the next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Unless we get the center to relocate over the strong mid-level circulation that has developed, Joyce is decoupling quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 With that said, it does look like a new llc is developing over the mid-level circulation. Very interesting evolution today with Joyce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 DOWNgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 DOWNgraded Figured as much when I saw the SHIPS initialize at 30 kts a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Aaaaaaaaaaaaand she's gone. Remnant low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Aaaaaaaaaaaaand she's gone. Remnant low. Not surprising given the current presentation. Could be a regeneration candidate down the road as it passes north of the TUTT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Not surprising given the current presentation. Could be a regeneration candidate down the road as it passes north of the TUTT. I wouldn't be surprised about this. Joyce is a better candidate for regeneration, IMO, than Florence was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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