toad strangler Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208200536 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012 AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 129N, 185W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 125N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 121N, 214W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Could we have Isaac, Joyce and Kirk by the weeks end?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Here are some spreads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Extrap is always my favorite "model". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Extrap is always my favorite "model". Mine too. I've been studying it for a while now, and am getting pretty good at predicting its output before it's even run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Could we have Isaac, Joyce and Kirk by the weeks end?? Would prefer just Isaac (94L) and Joyce (96L), that frontal slop in the BoC just ain't cutting it...Kirk is a storm name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 You can see 96L on the righthand side just starting to get within range of GOES. I really like how far south the strong convection is (albeit the center of circulation is further north) both because it's more protected from the dry air and for potential track implications down the road. If only we can get a center relocation under the deep convection and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 No love for 96L? AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 No love for 96L? AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Most have the 1,000 yard stare going on with 94L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 96L appears to be undergoing some easterly shear, as the convection is displaced west of the low-level center. However, banding is increasing and it has a healthy circulation. I would give it a 50% chance of making tropical storm status in the next 3 days. However, unless it can stay south of about 15N, by this weekend it will face significantly increased shear and dry air associated with King TUTT at around 58W. Thus I have strong doubts that it can survive in the long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 2 am TWO re 96L from NHC A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The modeled interaction between cyclones should be a good laugh in the MR/LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Cherried 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Surprised nobody is talking about this considering how disorganized / low in lattitude it is. Wouldnt it have a decent shot at getting in to the carribean considering its on the slow path to classification ala future Isaac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Surprised nobody is talking about this considering how disorganized / low in lattitude it is. Wouldnt it have a decent shot at getting in to the carribean considering its on the slow path to classification ala future Isaac? It's WAY out there and progged to track much more NW than 94L did. GFS ensembles mostly are suggesting fish although a few dive it into the Bahamas in fantasy land range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It's WAY out there and progged to track much more NW than 94L did. GFS ensembles mostly are suggesting fish although a few dive it into the Bahamas in fantasy land range. They seem a bit too far north...it will probably be a little farther north than 94L, but not that far NE. If it keeps a safe distance from it´s older brother, it should have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 They seem a bit too far north...it will probably be a little farther north than 94L, but not that far NE. If it keeps a safe distance from it´s older brother, it should have a chance. The difficulty that 96L will face is the developing TUTT that is dropping down to provide an outflow channel for TD#9. I think conditions will remain favorable for the next 24-48 hours, but afterwards the TUTT will become an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For what it's worth, the 12Z GFS seems to be the first run to actually develop this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 96L cherry raised to 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Up to 70%... for the first time in days, both the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting genesis of this system. It looking like their day 5 forecasts will verify better than the day 2-3 forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Up to 90% as of 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Now up to 100%. Think we get another depression this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al102012_al962012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208221241 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END TEN, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL962012 AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 215W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082006, , BEST, 0, 105N, 239W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 102N, 262W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 274W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082106, , BEST, 0, 102N, 288W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 303W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 317W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082200, , BEST, 0, 109N, 329W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082206, , BEST, 0, 115N, 343W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 250, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 357W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 looks fishy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Is there any T analysis on this? Just curious with all that cyclonic motion on satellite with moderate convection concentrated, it's probable to me that this could already be classified. But, TPC's probability is near 100 percent, so I suppose it does not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Is there any T analysis on this? Just curious with all that cyclonic motion on satellite with moderate convection concentrated, it's probable to me that this could already be classified. But, TPC's probability is near 100 percent, so I suppose it does not matter. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ Thanks! Do we provide links? I know we have model guidance sources - I suppose I should bother to look. But this would appear to be a good candidate to consider adding. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al102012_al962012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208221241 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END TEN, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL962012 AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 215W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082006, , BEST, 0, 105N, 239W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 102N, 262W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 274W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 96, 2012082106, , BEST, 0, 102N, 288W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 303W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 317W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082200, , BEST, 0, 109N, 329W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082206, , BEST, 0, 115N, 343W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 250, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 96, 2012082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 357W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, That's pretty cool - your reading line after line of data and then at the very end, the very last word says "TEN" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I like this link for T analysis as it also has the past T numbers on the systems currently being analyzed: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Very interesting the 12z Euro today.. Here's the map. Still we're talking 10 days away.. Lots can change.. If this system becomes trpoical storm status it will be Joyce.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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